What's going on here?  The weather in the mid atlantic area sucks!

Whenever we have early season winter conditions, It always turns to crap for the remainder of the year. 

What is the long term forecast now?  Im getting nervous.  

Brad Panovich does weekly or more updates for mid-Atlantic skiers.

I know this sounds a bit odd, but I follow Kentucky Weather Center. Beyond predicting weather for Kentucky, Chris Bailey does an excellent job of presenting and critiquing the various weather models. You can then get an idea of the possibilities for the long range weather forecasts. That said, here is a link to a recent post about the pattern change anticipated for mid to late December. If this scenario plays out, it looks like we could have good Christmas holiday skiing.

Focusing On The Changes Ahead | Kentucky Weather Center with Meteorologist Chris Bailey

 Ive been waiting for those patterns to change my entire life!

yea I know Chris, and this center.  I had them on alerts and would get updates from them via either twitter or facebook but I think I stopped during the summer.

snowsmith wrote:

I know this sounds a bit odd, but I follow Kentucky Weather Center. Beyond predicting weather for Kentucky, Chris Bailey does an excellent job of presenting and critiquing the various weather models. You can then get an idea of the possibilities for the long range weather forecasts. That said, here is a link to a recent post about the pattern change anticipated for mid to late December. If this scenario plays out, it looks like we could have good Christmas holiday skiing.

Focusing On The Changes Ahead | Kentucky Weather Center with Meteorologist Chris Bailey

I feel like Im closer to taking out the sunscreen, than I am ski wax at this point.

I guess it could be worse.  I remember when not so long ago, 7s had to close and reopen in Jan.  That was sunscreen weather.  

Scott wrote:

It's looking like we won't really be seeing great (nighttime) snowmaking temperatures until the second half of December.  At least some Mid-Atlantic resorts were able to open in November!  Hopefully their bases hold up the next couple weeks.

snapdragon wrote:

that's the mid-atlantic baby...sometimes she giveth and sometimes she take it away...tline is open top to bottom this fri until the end of march...ungrumpy thyself and send it son!!!

^This.     Very much this. 

I always lose track of specific years but one winter around 2016 or so, I mountain biked A LOT more than I skied.

Mid A winters are weird.

Leo wrote:

I always lose track of specific years but one winter around 2016 or so, I mountain biked A LOT more than I skied.

Mid A winters are weird.

 I cannot recall how the whole 2016 winter went (I didn't go skiing because I was trying to get move)

2/17/2016 - 2016 Presidents Day Storm drops 4 inches of powdery snow on Alexandria, Va.

1/23/2016 - Snowzilla Alexandria, Va. snow total at 9:15 a.m. January 23, 2016 – 15.5 inches

It was indeed 2016. Here's a thread from January 2016 where I posted about my first day of the season,  Jan 7 2016

It was Wintergreen's first day open for the season, unless you count the day or 2 around the holidays when they managed to get the learning area open.

The link to the news report still works!

It is early December in the mid-Atlantic! The early snowmaking window was a gift which set up the ski areas which went hard for the 3-5 day snowmaking window for a solid December.

Anyone expecting cold and snow in the first 1/2 of December need to remember that DC's average high temperature this time of year is still near 50 degrees and average low is just at freezing. A snowy day with a high below freezing needs to be nearly 20 degrees below average for this time of year. Even up at elevation in WV, it is rare we see consistent cold this time of year w/o major rain storms to wash out the natural base. Sad but true! 

That said, looking at the next two weeks, we are locked and loaded for a potentially very good snowmaking period for the major ski areas with the possibility of significant snowfall across the area (including within the beltway!). The holiday period will likely be very good for ski areas at elevation. 

Grumpy dad wrote:

What's going on here?  The weather in the mid atlantic area sucks!

Whenever we have early season winter conditions, It always turns to crap for the remainder of the year. 

What is the long term forecast now?  Im getting nervous.  

 Ive been waiting for those patterns to change my entire life!

"See SKI-PSU post above."

As a grumpy dad myself I do remember lots of snow and cold winters growing up. The most recent pattern we have found ourselves in with less natural snow could change in any winter. There are too many variables to conclusively predict with great accuracy how things will play out. Those resorts who have heavily invested in snowmaking and grooming equipment are making it work in the Mid-Atlantic.

I do remember in the 70's & 80's many days on the slopes with lots of natural snow but I will take a good top dressing of snowmaking today with an established base. The quality of snow from modern equipment can provide an exceptional experience. If you're seeking powder get on a plane and go west. Hoping for a great season!

Colorado now!

"As a grumpy dad myself I do remember lots of snow and cold winters growing up."

Capital Weather Gang addressed this earlier this month: Five key ways winter has changed in Washington (soft paywall)

Summary: Winters are warmer, less snowy, shorter and feature more springlike thunderstorms.

 They're convinced of it too, and their _current_ prices prove it :D 

SeniorSki wrote:

they know in the future they will be in the drivers seat. WV will be the Rockies of the Middle Atlantic. 

SeniorSki wrote:

"WV will be the Rockies of the Middle Atlantic."

In the CWG article their last point #5 is "there will be more blockbuster snowstorms." They go on to mention that 5 of the 10 largest snowstorms have occurred since 1996 from recorded data over the past 100 years.

Despite this the resorts east of the Appalachian Mountains still depend more on snowmaking. Records over the past 20+ years at an elevation of 3700+ feet in Canaan, WV show some reductions in snowfall. From 2002-2012 the average yearly snowfall was 189" or just under 16'. The fall of 2012 to spring 2022 average 141" or just under 12'. This is roughly 25% less natural snowfall.

Over this 20 year period there have been some very good winters. 2012-2013 (224"), 2010-2011 (215"), 2009-2010 (251"), 2002-2003 (241").

If you go a little further back the winter of 1959-1960 at Kumbrabow State Forrest, WV recorded 301.4" or 25'+ of natural snow! This is about 25 miles NW of Snowshoe Mountain with average elevation of 3,700 feet. Stats from NOAA.

Notice snow depth on March 8, 1978 at Snowshoe.

So maybe WV is the Rockies of the Mid Atlantic! Despite warmer winters skiers are still supporting resorts.  

SeniorSki wrote:

The huge advantage that these resorts have is elevation and retention of snow and blowing snow temps. The average temperature change per 1,000 feet is 5.4 degrees colder on a dry day. Throw in a snowy or rainy day and temps fall 3.3 degrees per 1,000. For example White tail is 1,800 ft mt. while snowshoe is 4,800 ft mt. On an average everyday basis Snowshoe is anywhere from 16.2 to 9.9 degrees colder then White tail, that is huge when it comes to receiving natural snow, making snow and retaining the snow. 

That's absolutely right.  Every year, I see some people getting upset when they see resorts like Snowshoe making snow but not Whitetail or Roundtop -- they can't understand why some resorts would make snow but not others.  But these areas have very different climates.  All one needs to do is look at the current weather conditions for each area to see the wide differences.  Every degree counts when it comes to snowmaking.  (Wind and humidity factor in as well.)

I include weather conditions and forecasts for each Mid-Atlantic ski area in DCSki Resort Profiles.  The data comes directly from the National Weather Service and I utilize point forecasts, which try to estimate conditions at the precise location and elevation of the resort (vs. the nearest weather reporting station, which could be at a very different altitude and be off by as much as 10 degrees).  It can be interesting to compare the differences, even between resorts that are relatively near one another.

Snowbird opened Mineral Basin already - one of the earliest openings they had in years.  Brighton posted a video last night of it being near whiteout Saturday night on their first night of night skiing.  Now they're expecting a 3 day storm like Tahoe just got.

Gotta say, it's hard not to be a bit jealous and grumpy seeing all that.  I was supposed to be out there next week.

At any rate, I follow Justin Berk. He's a local meteorologist and also a skier. He often posts pics of his family skiing at RT and uses the tagline "Faith in the Flakes." He's pretty good and gives good explanations of the data and models he presents.

Joe Bastardi out of State College is pretty good too. You can often hear him on Larry the Cable Guy's weekly show on SiriusXM.  He's pretty good at picking up on patterns earlier than a lot of folks and is often pretty accurate in his predictions for the coming week.

La Nina winter 2 of them back to back same as last winter.  you have to watch the weather to get the best days in. 

I look 15 days 30 days out and do not see a lot of long-term cold.  

Monday looks good 2 nights of snowmaking (roundtop) 

towards the end of Jan some good runs of snowmaking temps should get them to 80% plus open.