I just caught part 1 Joe Bastardi's winter weather forecast on Yahoo:

http://weather.yahoo.com/streams/index.html

In this segment, he reviewed the predictions of the national weather service (NWS). In part 2, he will make his own predictions.

As we all know, NWS is calling for a mild El Nino: higher than normal temps in the NE and below normal temps in the SE. So what does that mean for us? Well, Bastardi mentioned that in the last El Nino (1997), parts of WV got an "outrageous" amount of snow. In particular, he talks about a storm that hit Beckley, near Snowshoe. WV, in short, is the true wildcard for an El Nino winter because it falls right in the middle of the NE/SE prediction zones.

I'll be curious to see what Bastardi has to say in Part II.

[This message has been edited by johnfmh (edited 10-18-2002).]

[This message has been edited by johnfmh (edited 10-18-2002).]

thanks for the update John!

Best source is direct from the Climate Prediction Center. They released 0.5-3.5 month predictions and it boils down to:
1) A moderate El Nino is present this winter. Except for late Jan-early Feb, the Mid-Atlantic area tempuratures should be EC (Equal Chances ... 0% probability that temps will be higher or lower than normal). In that late Jan-Feb period, there is about 5% probability for higher than normal temps.

2) The greatest factor in Mid-Atlantic winter weather, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) looks like it will have many cycles, bringing cold air down from Canada, and is currently making our weather cooler than normal here. CPC predicts that the NAO will probably, if timing is right, totally nullify El Nino effects, again supporting a "normal" winter.

3) Current trends with the NAO point to a deepening southward, probably setting us up for decent opening days for local ski resorts. With a little luck, you may see 7 Springs open around Thanksgiving, which would make me very happy!

Herb Stevens, the "Skiing Weatherman," posted his first predictions of the season yesterday.

In a nutshell, he says that this current storm should turn to snow in WV and Western PA later on today. More importantly, he states that "The backside of the storm will be cold, with quite a bit of wind, and that will set off a good lake effect shot, as well as upslope snow in the Appalachians from North Carolina to New York."

As for his longer range predictions, he's hedging his bets a bit but leaning towards the positive: "But by and large, the large scale factors out there, as we enter the winter, would seem to point toward a season with ample snowfall in the East, in stark contrast to that feeble excuse for a winter that we saw last year."

For more, check out his website:

http://www.skiingweatherman.com/weather.php