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If there's a sudden change in this current mild weather pattern by the first week in Feb., then, the season will be salvaged, if not, the 2005-2006 season will go down as a wash-out for a number of mid-Atlantic ski areas.
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Feb. 1 will mark the mid-point of the 2005-2006 ski season. As we fast approach that milestone (or shall I say "mild-stone") I have to wonder what the latter half of the season is going to be like. There's still no really cold air on the horizon, so it's all going to come down to the weather trend for Feb. If there's a sudden change in this current mild weather pattern by the first week in Feb., then, the season will be salvaged, if not, the 2005-2006 season will go down as a wash-out for a number of mid-Atlantic ski areas.
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...Since Dec. 22, there have been 2 nights of snowmaking total and between now and Feb 1, there will be 0 nights to blow snow.
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Roger Z, I wouldn't think that the odds are too good for a big MLK weekend at most ski areas.
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I skiied Whitetail yesterday and it was pure CRAP.
Look at it as an opportunity to learn how to ski less than ideal conditions.
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1. Like tom, tomi and others, while the worriers worried, the skiers skied. 13 days for me, lots of packed powder, six or seven of those days while it snowed all day and only two were springlike.
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A good friend will come and bail you out of jail.......
but a true friend will be sitting next to you saying "Damn that was fun" !
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I skied Whitetail this past Saturday and Sunday, and the conditions were good and the bases were fine. I also hit some great conditions at Whitetail in December. I think Ullr is punishing you for your overall poor attitude.
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........ & The runoff from all the construction must be filling in all the ponds cuz when i fell thru my fav Ice skating pond This OCTOBER because the FOOT of snow made the thickness of the ice deceptive, I only sank up to my knees.But back when i was a kid i did the same thing & sank up to my neck!
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I know how to ski in less than ideal conditions. When do conditions that are less than ideal get called good to quote your statement. Which is it less than ideal or good or are they the same in your rating system?
Or should I quote you from an earlier post:
From JohnL: "Next weekend at Whitetail could get a bit dicey with holiday crowds (MLK), warm temps and possible rain this week. But most DCSki posters avoid Whitetail (and other popular areas) on holiday weekends... "
Which category does "a bit dicey" fall into? Good or Less than ideal?
Somehow you just said the same thing that I said, but you determined that I have a poor attitude.
Whew, I guess it's only OK when you say it......
Oh and BTW the Lord Almighty has control over ski conditions, not some Norse myth.
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The heat required to melt snow is 334kj/kg of snow. The specific heat capacity of water is 4.147 kj/kg or 1 kcal/gram. Specific heat capacity of air is much less, at about 1 kj/kg. So, all things being equal, water at a given temperature will melt snow much faster(actually, melt more snow) than air at the same temperature.
Of course, all things are not equal. One of the principal drivers in melt is the rate of exchange between the heat receiving and heat providing molecules. In other words, is the water flowing or the wind blowing? In either of these cases, the rate of heat exchange is radically increased because the number of molecules that provide heat to the ice is greater. The following is true except at extremes between substances e.g. high temperature variance or high flow variance:
Melting occurs fastest by warm flowing water followed by warm flowing air followed by warm still water follwed by warm still air. The exact rate can be calcuated, but you need to know the initial temperature of the ice (snow), the temperature of the air or water, and the rate of flow of the air or water. (Assuming standard pressure). The effect of solar radiation (assuming ice to the level of penetration) is limited.
In the real world, this means a strong, warm wind is really bad news, warm rain is bad, cold rain is not too good, and 40 degree, but calm sunny days are OK.
Anyway, if I remember right, looking at the weather records at the NOAA, the 1950s and 1960s were colder than average, up until about 1977 for that matter. It's no better to use colder than average years as a gauge for what "ought" to be our normal weather than it is to use warmer than average years as a gauge. You're right, all indications are that the 1980s and 1990s were warmer than the 1970s and 1960s. So far, I think the early 2000s have been slightly cooler than the 1990s but warmer than the 1980s. Talking in decades leaves a lot of exceptions to the rule, though. The winter of 1984-85 was pretty darn cold.Quote:
with the exception of the Shoe, which was booked-up long ago
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Roger Z, I know that you mentioned the ski areas might get a decent turn-out for the MLK weekend. At this point I'm not so sure; with the exception of the Shoe, which was booked-up long ago, I think that it's going to be a LOUSY MLK weekend.
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Well here it is the Saturday of MLK weekend. I live 40 miles south of Richmond and they are predicting snow tonight.
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Jimmy,
13 days so far? Dang, don't you have a job or somethin? Unless you quit skiing so much, you'll never pass Roger Z. Not that I have any money riding on the outcome ...
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Wouldn't you know it... the guy living in West Virginia doesn't have a job. Go figure.
. one of the most sublime hijacks i've seen in DCSki history. I really couldn't identify a particular post, this baby just sorta drifted away from the bad karma. I feel like i should have a beer or two to celebrate tonight. Crush and I may be too far along the journey but Roger i think Quote:
I took a quick look back thru this thread, great job,...
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With 7 inches of fresh snow at my place, it looks like Winter has finally returned to Western PA. But, I'm afraid that it's going to be short-lived as it's supposed to get up into the 40s on Fri. with a good chance of rain by Sun. And, unfortunately, it looks like the overall mild weather pattern is going to return and stick around for awhile. This means plenty of days in the 50s (in the DC/Balt. area) and perhaps a few days that flirt with 60. ...
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At least there should be plenty of nights when most of the ski areas can make snow. Whenever the Northern branch of the Jet Stream dips down across the Great Lakes again, PA and the higher elevations of MD and WV should receive lots of lake-effect snowfall given the relatively mild water temps of the lakes these days.
