Lots of mild temps for the rest of the ski season?
February 4, 2006
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Feb. 1 will mark the mid-point of the 2005-2006 ski season. As we fast approach that milestone (or shall I say "mild-stone") I have to wonder what the latter half of the season is going to be like. There's still no really cold air on the horizon, so it's all going to come down to the weather trend for Feb. If there's a sudden change in this current mild weather pattern by the first week in Feb., then, the season will be salvaged, if not, the 2005-2006 season will go down as a wash-out for a number of mid-Atlantic ski areas.
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If there's a sudden change in this current mild weather pattern by the first week in Feb., then, the season will be salvaged, if not, the 2005-2006 season will go down as a wash-out for a number of mid-Atlantic ski areas.
MM: Have you skied this year? Wash-out? Hardly. Don't let the PA lowlands and the massive ozone hole over Blue Knob get you down. Head west - West VA that is - almost 70" in Canaan Valley already. Much great skiing already had - more on the way.
Repeat after me: "I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts..."
There now, feel better?
Yeah, I can hardly see how this season is a wash-out. Almost every day in December was a snowmaking day, and resorts responded -- by making a ton of snow. Most resorts had the majority of their terrain open before Christmas, and I would guess skier visits in December were way up vs. average years. We've had some warm temperatures the past 10 days, but even during that time snow has fallen at higher elevations. A good base of snow lasts a long time, and with all the snow resorts were able to make, even the low-elevation ones have been able to keep their snow in good shape.
And it's only January 11. Snowmaking temperatures return Saturday night. We've seen how much snow resorts can make in a short period of time. I would consider the warm temps of the past week a mere blip -- and I'd bet there's still some big snowstorms left in the season.
MM - a few years ago, I would have agreed with you. Fortunately, the local areas (referring primarily to the SnowTime, Inc. resorts) have invested HEAVILY into snowmaking equipment and technology. As a result, areas like Liberty Mountain were able to open most of its terrain in the scant few snowmaking weather days we've had - and with substantial bases! What would have been a disaster due to warm weather a mere few years ago, is a mere blip in what's turning out to be a decent season.
Ah yes, that infamous ozone hole is back once again this year.
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Feb. 1 will mark the mid-point of the 2005-2006 ski season. As we fast approach that milestone (or shall I say "mild-stone") I have to wonder what the latter half of the season is going to be like. There's still no really cold air on the horizon, so it's all going to come down to the weather trend for Feb. If there's a sudden change in this current mild weather pattern by the first week in Feb., then, the season will be salvaged, if not, the 2005-2006 season will go down as a wash-out for a number of mid-Atlantic ski areas.
Where to begin? 
Even with the recent warm temps and rain, this season has been much better than last season. At this point last year, many areas were on the verge of closing. We're not close to that happening this year.
As others have stated, West Virginia has received a fair amount of snow, and this is still very early in the season.
Feb 1 the mid-point of the ski season? Maybe in terms of possible days, but in West Virginia and the Laurel Highlands the best tree skiing is mid-February to mid-March. As far as I'm concerned, the season hasn't even started on Feb 1!
Unless it is an extremely poor winter (which this one isn't even close to approaching), it really doesn't matter what the winter season is like at Whitetail, Liberty and Roundtop. You are skiing primarily man-made snow, and these areas can blast out the snow in limited snowmaking windows. Bases have been great this year. If anything, lack of snow in the city, warmer temps and rain have discouraged the masses from going to the slopes. So I'd say this has been an epic ski year at the SnowTime resorts! 
Agreed. The ski resorts probably made a killing over Christmas break. Basically to have a good year, eastern ski areas need to have two out of three major holiday weekends with good snow: Christmas, MLK, and Presidents Day. So far, they're one for two (and if the weather turns like it's supposed to, they might get a decent turnout for MLK as well). So, financially, this season certainly hasn't been a wash.
And as far as for the average skier- I'm about as finicky as they come with local conditions, and I've already been three times. Last year, I hadn't been once by this point in the season, and it would be another three weeks before I finally got to Winterplace. Wisp had it's natural snow runs open more than a week before Christmas... heck, they had EVERY run open more than a week before Christmas.
If you read MMs posts carefully, you'll see that he usually leaves lots of wiggle room so that he can claim that you're misinterpreting whatever he said. He just enjoys seeing a touch of gray in every silver lining. He also seems to be one of those folks who think that every winter in the Mid-Atl should have four solid months of cold air and snow, and probably can cite a couple of winters from the 1950s to prove that climate change is responsible for the fact that we no longer have winters like that.
Maybe it's true, maybe winters have gotten warmer. But it's what we have to deal with, so we can make the best of it or bitch about it all winter long. I'm with the "make the best of it" crowd. If you want consistent winters, there's only two places I can think of: above 9000 feet in the central Rockies, and Key West, Florida (consistently 80). Everywhere else, prepare for a roller coaster of some sort or another.
yeah, uhmmm.....
I've gotten over a dozen days on snow this year already.
Five trips to WG with some damn sweet conditions since THANKSGIVING! Last year I made 5 trips total and not a single one during January!
Last year, Friday night race league was cancelled for two weeks in January because of a lack of base, not deep enough to set gates. This year we've started on schedule and both WT and RT have been way ahead of last year w/ regard to open terrain at this date. They'll be able to blow snow with these little shots of cold coming in every few days. So it'll be touch and go for another week or so, then we'll be good to go. I've got no worries.
Sounds like somebody needs to get
SKIED!
I grew up here and we had colder winters, I'd say from 1960-1980 - but that's just something of guess, I was too young for 1960. Still I grew up in Bowie. I learned to ICE SKATE on the FROZEN LAKES of the area. I ice skated every year on Allen's Pond and Foxhill Lake - they are in Bowie. I also ice skated on Greenbelt Lake and also (but more rarely) on lake near Crofton. I did this every year that I can recall although I didn't keep a record and who knows, maybe some years we didn't and I just don't recall it. However I haven't seen anyone ice skating on frozen lakes in this area in 10s of years! Even when they have frozen over, I've not seen a soul venture so much as to put one big toe on the edge out of even a remote curiousity!
In terms of snow, we always had a late march snow before spring -- that's what I recall. It never lasted long.
On the other hand, we didn't get a heck of lot of snow -- I sure wished for more. Every few years we'd get 2 ft it seemed like to me, maybe every four or five years. So that doesn't seem that different really.
However what does seems different to me are the longer stretches of warm AIR at times during the winter, long enough, and warm enough to just abandon winter for other more traditional warm weather activities. I remember one year I almost road my bike every weekend one winter, I could hardly believe it. As a child growing up, I simply have no recollection of stretches of time that warm around here, but then again -- I was a little kid and in school most of the day, maybe it happened and I just forgot.
I predict a cold and snowy stretch of about the same duration as this warm spell, whatever that turns out to be. I also expect the excursion below average will be of about the same magnitude as the current excursion above average. Right now the jet stream has all the polar air locked up far to the north. The longer it is locked up, the colder and stronger it will be when the jailbreak finally comes. I'm looking forward to a very good Feb. and Mar. I do feel badly for the local ski areas. I have read that it is the Christmas week plus the 2 three day weekends that make or break eastern ski areas for the year. This year Christmas was not that good and MLK is looking like a bust.
KevR, I agree with you, the Winters HAVE gotten milder. I grew up in Northern VA in the 60s and early 70s. We used to ice skate often on 2 ponds near our house; in fact, we had an unofficial ice hockey league. I also ice skated on Lake Barcroft and the Pond in front of Northern VA Community College located along Little River Turnpike. Today, there's NO ice skating on ponds or lakes in Northern VA for all practical purposes. Also, my father started skiing in the 50s at Cabin Mountain (near Davis WV), Laurel Mt., PA and 7-Springs, PA. And guess what? None of those places had snowmaking during that time, yet my father went alpine skiing nearly every weekend for several months each Winter.
At least the good news is that most of the ski areas have gotten very good at making snow, plus snowmaking equipment has continued to improve.
Let me jump in and defend MM. He was only saying what anyone here in the DC metro area already knows....unless you are willing to make the long drive to CV or WG or SS - the conditions stink! I skiied Whitetail yesterday and it was pure CRAP. They aren't grooming trails for fear of losing base. The snow was absolute mush, trails are narrowing rapidly and puke patches are everywhere. It was prime rock skiing all the way. To diminish what MM says because he is referring to the local resorts (Snow time) is unfair. That is where most of us have to ski. And I'm sorry, the only reason they were able to lay down this great base and survive is because December was epic cold. Since Dec. 22, there have been 2 nights of snowmaking total and between now and Feb 1, there will be 0 nights to blow snow. That will end up being 2 nights of snowmaking in 40 days of winter, literally one third of this winter will be so warm that you cannot even make snow. THAT DID NOT HAPPEN LAST YEAR. Last year we had two weeks on and two weeks off. Completely different this year. We will receive over an inch of rain on Saturday followed by another warmup next week. MLK will be a complete washout for most local resorts. I talked to several staff at Whitetail and there numbers are way way down. People are losing interest. As reality sets in, this has all the makings of a lousy ski season.
Roger Z, I wouldn't think that the odds are too good for a big MLK weekend at most ski areas.
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...Since Dec. 22, there have been 2 nights of snowmaking total and between now and Feb 1, there will be 0 nights to blow snow.
I'm not confident that there will be NO nights for blowing snow between now and Feb 1. Most reports suggest that Saturday night (and maybe even Sunday night) should be in the 20s. In most scenarios, that's good for blowing snow, and with the Monday holiday, I think resorts will do all they can to build their base.
MichaelB, thanks for defending me! There are more than a few individuals on this site who either live in a dream world and/or perhaps have some sort of "close association" with the mid-Atlantic ski industry. So, they're unlikey to offer much objectivity; but, their posts are interesting never-the-less.
I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...I shall not think bad thoughts...
oh, sorry, there I was dreaming again. Sorry your ski season has been so sucky.
tgd, we're not talking about bad thoughts here, I'm just trying to offer a touch of objectivity.
MM - it's all relative. I don't believe making broad generalizations over the quality of the Mid-Atlantic ski season based on a couple skiers' experiences at a handful of resorts is at all objective. From my own personal experience this season, plus reading the many favorable trip reports documented on this site by skiers at ski resorts across the region, I'd say the season has been pretty typical - if actually a little front-loaded. Now, you may believe typical means bad or a "wash-out"; however, that is your subjective opinion. Anyway, it's all in good spirits - debating weather, snow quality, and skiing is a nice diversion. Cheerup, maybe the Alito hearings will run into the 3-day weekend to give those who cannot - or choose not to ski - an alternative activity over MLK.
Funny how the only time you grace us with your "touches of objectivity" are to post negative comments about skiing and/or weather. And how can you DARE even say you're objective when the headline of this thread is "Lots of mild temps for the rest of the ski season"? Who made you God to know exactly what the weather is going to be for the next two months? We've been around this before, MM: you cannot be objective about forecasts. Forecasts are predictions, predictions are probabilistic, probability blends uncertainty and risk, and to the extent that there is uncertainty there is concurrently subjective interpretations of a range of potential outcomes. On top of that, since when is determining whether this ski season "a wash" or not objective at all? That seems like the ultimate matter of interpretation to most people... 'cept you I guess.
And don't even start with people having affiliations with organizations, MM. From what I can tell of your posting history, you're a card carrying member of the Sierra Club, which has been waging a campaign against Blue Knob for years. Instead of insinuating what other people might or might not have affiliations with, why not disclose your own? Or are you worried that might affect your shining reputation that you have on this website?
And just to clarify things: who ever said you CANNOT ice skate in northern Virginia. I live in Mclean and almost every year am able to get in a week or so of great ice skating and hockey on my neighborhood pond (about 2 acres). Also, three years ago we had 13 inches of ice covering the pond that made it until April!!! I clearly remember the National Park Service opening the canals for ice skating for the public. So please everone stop over generalizing because if you took the time to look people still DO learn to ice skate on local lakes and ponds. Yes some years are better then others but that's the mid-atlantic for you!! Like Roger said: "If you want consistent winters, there's only two places I can think of: above 9000 feet in the central Rockies, and Key West, Florida (consistently 80). Everywhere else, prepare for a roller coaster of some sort or another."
And all of you who are predicting no snowmaking for the rest of winter why dont you do yourself a favor and look at a forecast. We have 2 solid nights of snowmaking coming this weekend. Even the snowtime resorts will have an ok MLK.
So far this season I am 4 for 4. In otherwords 4 awesome days of riding in 4 trips. Not bad. Yeah this warm spell has me worried because it's chewing up the base but it looks like we are getting thrown enough windows of snowmaking to keep it alive and in another week or two it will settle back into a cold spell and all will be well with the world again.
We have about 2 months or so left. Lets look back at the end of it and determine then if it's a wash out.
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Roger Z, I wouldn't think that the odds are too good for a big MLK weekend at most ski areas.
Yeah, I hear ya...
My prediction is that the weather pattern of the last 20 yrs means we are likely to have a pretty cold shot of several weeks before winter ends. That's pretty typical isn't it? Usually in January some time but perhaps this year closer to Feb.
My earlier comments were just observations on the weather pattern I'd gotten used to in my youth and which I feel changed sometime around '80-'85 time frame (give or take).
I think my memories are accurate as best as I can recall them, although I don't know that's its terribly useful information and I present no hard data to back it up.
Weather patterns do change, that we can all agree on...
Maybe an early Jan warm up (followed by of course a return to winter cold) is part of a new pattern for the next 20 yrs, who knows.
Clearly the local ski industry would suffer if that were to take place - but perhaps it could come up with some ways to limit the impact of such an occurance over time if it had to.
So one of my co-workers comes in a few days ago and says he just played nine holes of golf. Which makes me ask, why can't we get the reverse: a blizzard in July that lets us go skiing and ruins golfing for a week? I think I'm going to insist on such a weather pattern, in the interests of fairness.
mm
mm, thanks, finally a voice of reason in this discussion. Why not, as you say, in all fairness, just one 18 incher per summer? I've found this lively discussion entertaining as always but allow me to share a couple of facts......
1. Like tom, tomi and others, while the worriers worried, the skiers skied. 13 days for me, lots of packed powder, six or seven of those days while it snowed all day and only two were springlike.
2. A good friend will come and bail you out of jail.......
but a true friend will be sitting next to you saying "Damn that was fun"
!
Hey Jimmi,Thats Blue Collar comedy tour material you got there! Found a lighter for that HOGLEG yet? One thing bout my man Mr Masher is his consistency. How come we don't hear any more stories like George Washington & Valley Forge...See! & The runoff from all the construction must be filling in all the ponds cuz when i fell thru my fav Ice skating pond This OCTOBER because the FOOT of snow made the thickness of the ice deceptive, I only sank up to my knees.But back when i was a kid i did the same thing & sank up to my neck!
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I skiied Whitetail yesterday and it was pure CRAP.
I skied Whitetail this past Saturday and Sunday, and the conditions were good and the bases were fine. I also hit some great conditions at Whitetail in December. I think Ullr is punishing you for your overall poor attitude. Look at it as an opportunity to learn how to ski less than ideal conditions.
Jimmy,
13 days so far? Dang, don't you have a job or somethin? Unless you quit skiing so much, you'll never pass Roger Z. Not that I have any money riding on the outcome ... 
Roger Z, you failed to recognize that I ended my headline "Lots of mild temps for the rest of the ski season?" with a QUESTION MARK. Like everyone else, I'm wondering what the weather is going to be like for the balance of the ski season. I was NOT making a statement or prediction.
Snowshoe will receive 6-12" of snow over MLK.
ADD...
=1 3/4" precip. 15" of snow. It wont be all snow though. Rain to snow. So 8". My vote is in. EPIC MLK weekend for Snowshoe, Canaan, T-line.
Oh, And according to that, 3-4" here at my house
I just got back from Whitetail an hour ago. The snow was great, very spring like and few bare spots of any size at all. I was amazed. Fog was very dense until after ~ 8 when it started to lift. If they get one or two nights of below freezing temps for snowmaking they will be fine. There was virtually nobody there and my buddy and I practiced railroad track carves turning back up the hill. Great fun.
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1. Like tom, tomi and others, while the worriers worried, the skiers skied. 13 days for me, lots of packed powder, six or seven of those days while it snowed all day and only two were springlike.
I've skied 9 days this season (7 in Dec, 2 thus far in Jan); only 1 day had conditions that were anything less than pretty doggone awesome - that was on Dec 4, and it was icy because of sleet the previous night.
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A good friend will come and bail you out of jail.......
but a true friend will be sitting next to you saying "Damn that was fun" !
Jimmy, are you wearing a flannel shirt with the sleeves cut off right now? Git'r Done!
Just looked @ the 7S Mountain Cams... the base looks to be holding up remarkably well considering the temps. I would imagine the guns will be turned on ASAP and probably during the ski sessions this Saturday, considering rain is in the forecast Friday prior to the cold down this weekend.
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I skied Whitetail this past Saturday and Sunday, and the conditions were good and the bases were fine. I also hit some great conditions at Whitetail in December. I think Ullr is punishing you for your overall poor attitude. Look at it as an opportunity to learn how to ski less than ideal conditions.
I know how to ski in less than ideal conditions. When do conditions that are less than ideal get called good to quote your statement. Which is it less than ideal or good or are they the same in your rating system?
Or should I quote you from an earlier post:
From JohnL: "Next weekend at Whitetail could get a bit dicey with holiday crowds (MLK), warm temps and possible rain this week. But most DCSki posters avoid Whitetail (and other popular areas) on holiday weekends... "
Which category does "a bit dicey" fall into? Good or Less than ideal?
Somehow you just said the same thing that I said, but you determined that I have a poor attitude.
Whew, I guess it's only OK when you say it......
Oh and BTW the Lord Almighty has control over ski conditions, not some Norse myth.
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........ & The runoff from all the construction must be filling in all the ponds cuz when i fell thru my fav Ice skating pond This OCTOBER because the FOOT of snow made the thickness of the ice deceptive, I only sank up to my knees.But back when i was a kid i did the same thing & sank up to my neck!
HAAA, No no no, how many times do i have to explain this to you fishnski, it's not from bad erosion control, it's because when you was a kid you was three feet shorter!
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I know how to ski in less than ideal conditions. When do conditions that are less than ideal get called good to quote your statement. Which is it less than ideal or good or are they the same in your rating system?
Or should I quote you from an earlier post:
From JohnL: "Next weekend at Whitetail could get a bit dicey with holiday crowds (MLK), warm temps and possible rain this week. But most DCSki posters avoid Whitetail (and other popular areas) on holiday weekends... "
Which category does "a bit dicey" fall into? Good or Less than ideal?
Somehow you just said the same thing that I said, but you determined that I have a poor attitude.
Whew, I guess it's only OK when you say it......
Oh and BTW the Lord Almighty has control over ski conditions, not some Norse myth.
The big difference is that I'm *potentially* writing off a single weekend (more likely due to crowds than conditions) while you and Mountain Masher are writing off an entire season or one half a season. Go reread your posts.
And if you still think this season has been worse at Whitetail than last season, you're mistaken. Last year Whitetail opened the weekend before Xmas with only one blue trail open (besides some greens.) The same weekend this year, Whitetail had been open for at least a week and had all trails open except for one seldom-open blue, Fanciful, and the half-pipe. Last year on the weekend before MLK, the snow on Exhibition was down to a sliver, and most of the blacks and blues were closed. It was pure sketch. This year on the same weekend, only two blues and the half-pipe were closed, and the cover on all open trails was very solid.
And sorry, but Ullr rules! He's looked after Alta and many other places for a good while now. I'd be glad to show you 100+ settled inches of myth.
Fo Real!??! That explains why I thought there were 4 feet of snow on the pond when i was a kid!...........(disclaimer..I was the ORIGINAL poster that brought up the fact that old timer snow stories were exagerated because of our smaller size as kids)...Couldn't tell if you were on JOKETIME or serious there Jimmi....6 to 12 inches up in the high country of West By This MLK...Been summerlike down here in the Carolinas, Time to go visit the north pole!
It's somehow appropriate that in the midst of a debate about what constitutes a "bad" season versus a "good" season, whether this is a "usual" or "unusual" warm spell, and all sorts of other objective euphemisms that we've cooked up on this board, we have a theological argument brewing too. Should we discuss how many angels can dance on the head of a pin and the sound of one hand clapping while we're at it? My answers: 27 and grasshopper. You can take it to the bank.
Last Friday, on a related post, it was stated that the cold weather in the mtns last weekend wouldn't last and that "temps expected to rise to the mid-60's by this time next week." Well, this time next week has arrived! While it has been warm here in the Piedmont, the situation is a bit different in Western Md and the Alleghany Highlands. Since it's always fun to look at how predictions actually turn out, here is what has happened this week:
Friday Hi 27.8 Low 15.8
Saturday Hi 31.0 Low 15.3
Sunday Hi 46.4 Low 29.5
Monday Hi 51.4 Low 33.0
Tuesday Hi 46.5 Low 29.9
Wednesday Hi 51.4 Low 37.0
Thursday Hi 52.6 Low 35.2 (as of 8:15 - still falling)
All temps are from the Garrett College Weather Site. It also has interesting historical data where you can see past years. The data appears to be both accurate and reliable.
The interesting thing here is that while it did get warm for January, it still went below freezing almost every night. And, while the few inches of natural snow is gone, the deep base built up at the ski areas isn't going to be significantly impacted by a few days in the low 50's.
For whatever it's worth, this seems like a normal January thaw to me. Having watched the weather in Garrett and Tucker counties pretty closely for about 30 years, this is very, well, normal. It was really cold and snowy in Dec. We've had a moderation in temps, and then it will get cold again. What's amazing to me is how terrific a ski season it's already been, and it's only January 12th! Far from a wash-out, we've had as many days with 100% open slopes (and counting) as I can recall. Even the eastern piedmont areas have been fully open more than usual, and Vermont/NH have had less rain than many (most?) years. For another perspective, look at Chip's Whitegrass site. He's already got 53 skiable days and 27 fully open. And that, of course, is all on natural snow! Given that there's still 78 days until the end of March, he could still be on the way to an all time record. No guarantees, but not too shabby either.
Here is the actual high/low for Jan. 10 - 13 for the last 7 years from the Garrett College weather site. I picked these days to represent "this time of year." From what I can see, this year is warm for these 4 days. In 2004, there was a nice cold snap. Last year was a bit warmer than average. In any case, unless you look at 30 or more days, it's hard to draw valid conclusions. So maybe I'll do a months worth of data and graph it. Or not.
Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13
2000 51.1/33.3 44.3/27.3 42.0/24.0 46.7/11.7
2001 29.2/13.4 38.3/26.8 40.2/20.6 45.6/16.8
2002 42.9/40.6 41.0/28.1 40.7/26.5 34.9/23.7
2003 32.7/13.1 16.2/9.4 17.5/7.8 25.3/14.2
2004 19.7/6.4 8.4/-2.3 36.3/1.6 35.1/29.3
2005 45.2/29.0 45.6/27.8 48.7/27.8 58.9/48.5
2006 46.5/29.9 51.4/37.0 52.6/34.9
Sorry - Can't get it to format better in the Post Box -
Facts,we want just the facts ..good post Tommo! They are still skiing on natural snow up & above 4000' at whitegrass. 7" at the ski stake still. NWS is still hedging thier bets on this MLK storm at this insomniac hour(3am). Nam & GFS models just don't agree...where is Gordan Barnes the ole DC weatherman? He wouldn't be confused by the model disagreements....because he didn't have any!
I believe what's changed since about 1960 is the length of the warm-ups, and their upper temps, and the length of the cold snaps, and their lower temps. In a nutshell, when it warms up in the winter now, it stays warmer & hotter longer. When it cools down, it doesn't get quite as cold as it used to, and it doesn't stay as cold as long...
Perhaps that's just saying the obvious -- but i have no recollection of Jan 60+ degree days in this area before the 90s really, which doesn't mean it didn't happen. When that did occur, its rare occurance must have meant i payed little attention to it.
If the rain amounts occur as predicted and the cold doesn't settle in so the rain converts to snow, it's not looking too good for the weekend. Think cold!!!!
I have a question for anybody in the know. What does more harm to a base, a 40 degree day with a 1/2 inch of rain or a 55 degree day with sunshine? Just curious.
The heat required to melt snow is 334kj/kg of snow. The specific heat capacity of water is 4.147 kj/kg or 1 kcal/gram. Specific heat capacity of air is much less, at about 1 kj/kg. So, all things being equal, water at a given temperature will melt snow much faster(actually, melt more snow) than air at the same temperature.
Of course, all things are not equal. One of the principal drivers in melt is the rate of exchange between the heat receiving and heat providing molecules. In other words, is the water flowing or the wind blowing? In either of these cases, the rate of heat exchange is radically increased because the number of molecules that provide heat to the ice is greater. The following is true except at extremes between substances e.g. high temperature variance or high flow variance:
Melting occurs fastest by warm flowing water followed by warm flowing air followed by warm still water follwed by warm still air. The exact rate can be calcuated, but you need to know the initial temperature of the ice (snow), the temperature of the air or water, and the rate of flow of the air or water. (Assuming standard pressure). The effect of solar radiation (assuming ice to the level of penetration) is limited.
In the real world, this means a strong, warm wind is really bad news, warm rain is bad, cold rain is not too good, and 40 degree, but calm sunny days are OK.
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The heat required to melt snow is 334kj/kg of snow. The specific heat capacity of water is 4.147 kj/kg or 1 kcal/gram. Specific heat capacity of air is much less, at about 1 kj/kg. So, all things being equal, water at a given temperature will melt snow much faster(actually, melt more snow) than air at the same temperature.
Of course, all things are not equal. One of the principal drivers in melt is the rate of exchange between the heat receiving and heat providing molecules. In other words, is the water flowing or the wind blowing? In either of these cases, the rate of heat exchange is radically increased because the number of molecules that provide heat to the ice is greater. The following is true except at extremes between substances e.g. high temperature variance or high flow variance:
Melting occurs fastest by warm flowing water followed by warm flowing air followed by warm still water follwed by warm still air. The exact rate can be calcuated, but you need to know the initial temperature of the ice (snow), the temperature of the air or water, and the rate of flow of the air or water. (Assuming standard pressure). The effect of solar radiation (assuming ice to the level of penetration) is limited.
In the real world, this means a strong, warm wind is really bad news, warm rain is bad, cold rain is not too good, and 40 degree, but calm sunny days are OK.
TOMMO, DID YOU USED TO GO BY THE NAME PHYSICSMAN??
Jim, In your post you've stated that this ski season is turning out to be a "decent season". Are you still sticking by that statement? Or are you willing to revise that assessment a bit?
Tommo... looks like you REALLY paid attention in your thermodynamics class
Roger Z, I know that you mentioned the ski areas might get a decent turn-out for the MLK weekend. At this point I'm not so sure; with the exception of the Shoe, which was booked-up long ago, I think that it's going to be a LOUSY MLK weekend.
KevR, I agree with your weather analysis; the long term trend does tend to show that the warm periods are lasting longer in the mid-Atlantic and the cold snaps shorter in duration. However, some of the arctic air that manages to make it down our way can still be quite cold as evidenced by record lows in some places (that either have been tied or broken) over the past 30 years.
Weather is unstably, stable! So in my lifetime, I feel pretty sure our weather pattern here has slightly warmed. Of course we are coming out of an ice-age, and the "little ice-age" a few hundred years back. Since we don't really understand what kicks off those events, its safe to bet it will likely occur again in the future - given the historical record. Whatever component of the warming weather is man made, will likely adjust itself one way or the other in the future. Either we run out of green house producing energy sources in the near future and civilization collapses as we know it, or we remove the made made component through technological innovation... or it'll just get cold again at some point.
Now has anyone noticed the winter olympics are about to start? Don't they do some skiing in that there olympics?
Gee, MM, I'm really stunned that you of all people would think this weekend is going to be "LOUSY." That kind of pessimism from you is really unheard of. Wow. I'll have to mark the date on a calendar.
KevR- perhaps you can't remember 60+ before the early 1990s, but I can. We set record highs of 78 degrees two years in a row at the end of Feb back in the Mid 1980s. I also remember seeing buds on the trees by late Feb in at least a cuple of the years in the 1980s.
Since I didn't move to DC until 1984, my recollection prior to that date is a little fuzzy.
Anyway, if I remember right, looking at the weather records at the NOAA, the 1950s and 1960s were colder than average, up until about 1977 for that matter. It's no better to use colder than average years as a gauge for what "ought" to be our normal weather than it is to use warmer than average years as a gauge. You're right, all indications are that the 1980s and 1990s were warmer than the 1970s and 1960s. So far, I think the early 2000s have been slightly cooler than the 1990s but warmer than the 1980s. Talking in decades leaves a lot of exceptions to the rule, though. The winter of 1984-85 was pretty darn cold.
As for this weekend, I've got a potential hike if it snows tomorrow, a basketball game to go to on Sunday, and a nice stroll with my girlfriend set for Monday. Plus tonight we're going to see a movie and getting Ben & Jerry's afterward. Regardless of the weather, things look just fine down here.
I never said there "ought" to be a different weather pattern. The pattern is the pattern ... right now, its warmer than it was when i grew up. When I was a kid I didn't care too much about any particular cold or hot spell, but now I want to go skiing and I do care. The other issue is whether this warm up has a man-made component or not. If so, it doesn't matter that much because there's no obvious way to "fix it" in the short term. However, longer term, I'd imagine it will go away one way or the other...(see previous email) if the warm-up is due to the man-made component, or a significant component of it -- then the weather pattern should change again if you remove the inputs.
Regardless, the weather system changes anyway, history shows a large variation...
Unfortunately my life span is probably too short to wait for another ice age to come around... dang it.
;-)
BTW -- any one see this? Seem pretty cool, although I haven't had a chance to fiddle with it too much.
http://www.redbullcopilot.com/downhill/launch.html?languageFile=dh_language_en_us.xml
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with the exception of the Shoe, which was booked-up long ago
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Curiously (and unexpectedly, I might add) Snowshoe is advertising some decent "specials" for MLK weekend on their web site. $189 - $289 for two nights lodging and two days lift tickets, pp double occupancy, price depends on property. Still, I don't recall Snowshoe offering specials like this on a holiday weekend too often. Seems like a pretty good deal....
Cking the weather guru's F-cast down here in the carolinas, besides calling for heavy snow tommorow he mentioned that todays high in the NC ski mtns of the low 60's was not a record since it hit the mid 60's 2 days in a row back in 1937! HEAVY SNOW WARNING Tenn/NC Mtn area...Why am i heading to WV?...Here is a simple answer to snow melt....FOG..besides gully washers(Warm water molicules moving rapidly over snow surface) is the most destructive force known to snow.....Roger...a stroll in the park over skiing this weekend?..soon it will be Honey do's...Snow bunnies galore at T-line pub this weekend..Don't lose it Buddy!
I'm a finicky skier Andy, and being in college, can't afford to shuffle off to CV every weekend. That means I'd have to ski at Winterplace or Wintergreen, both of which will be mobbed with church groups and an inch or two of new snow sitting on top of a glacier of ice. The walk sounds much more fun.
Where's all the cold weather? Asia? Yes... but how cold is it? Jim Andrews of Accunever provides a summary of it on his blog (emphasis mine):
"Wednesday, 1-11, I wrote about a severe cold outbreak over the West Siberian Lowland. As of Friday, the core of the cold is shifting eastwards. But, I will sum up some of the most interesting highlights of the week thus far. Tarkosale was the focus of the last posting, what with its minus 60 cold and
50-degree departure from "normal." Having begun Tuesday, as I recall, the stretch of unbroken -60s was not ended until midday, Friday, local time. A low of -66 degrees (reported as -54.2 deg C) was set during the day Thursday (no sunshine to speak of), when the high was -63 (-52.9 C) vs a "normal" high of -7 (-22 C)."
He says the cold is moving both east and west. Northern Japan is going to get walloped with another blizzard, and Europe is going to get a bit of it as well.
So with that, I'm off to Georgia (the other Georgia, not ours)! I'll say hi to Scheverdnaze for everyone...
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Roger Z, I know that you mentioned the ski areas might get a decent turn-out for the MLK weekend. At this point I'm not so sure; with the exception of the Shoe, which was booked-up long ago, I think that it's going to be a LOUSY MLK weekend.
Well here it is the Saturday of MLK weekend. I live 40 miles south of Richmond and they are predicting snow tonight.
Are you will to revise YOUR prediction?
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Well here it is the Saturday of MLK weekend. I live 40 miles south of Richmond and they are predicting snow tonight.
It looked like a blizzard outside our house in Williamsburg around midnight, but the snow did not stick. Still, it was quite a site to see. The wind has been howling big time.
Snowshoe reported in with 9" of new snow and is still in the teens and 20s. Once the wind dies down, it should be good skiing. But we're looking at warmer temps and rain once again in the middle of the week. Not quite back to real winter weather yet.
Craig
MLK lousey? Well, let's see...the blizard was so bad at Snowshoe - they had to close Ballhooter and Cupp !!! Sun & Mon it was cold & sunny. Haven't seen any bumps on Lower Shay's yet - always groomed! You could do a wedgie down Cupp & Shays!
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Jimmy,
13 days so far? Dang, don't you have a job or somethin? Unless you quit skiing so much, you'll never pass Roger Z. Not that I have any money riding on the outcome ...
JohnL, Job? Do you know of one? I'll be available for work sometime in APRIL .
Wouldn't you know it... the guy living in West Virginia doesn't have a job. Go figure.
Hey now I have a job! Oh wait... you were referring to someone else. Darn stigmas. :P
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Wouldn't you know it... the guy living in West Virginia doesn't have a job. Go figure.
Some people who can't get a job choose to ski instead. Others decide to go to school.
It's not that I couldn't get a job, JohnL. It's that each company I joined went bankrupt!
So... who wants to hire me?
Don't worry RogerZ about those they'd have probably been bankrupt even without your help, they's alwayz room fer u down herein my trailer with a propayne heater! If i had it to do all over again i'd look for work on a paving crew; they never work during ski season.
yeah that's it, paving crew, get paid Davis-Bacon, live in Davis all season, maybe in my second life. i feel weak, tempted to drunk post, resolutions were made to be broken???
Jimmy - actually that is a good idea ... Dean Cummings the extreme skier did just that so he could ski all the time.
My original plan for planning was to live somewhere cool near cheap skiing out west but still have a challenging job. Not sure I still want to do this though. Maybe I'll go work on a paving crew and tell you all about it
.
"I always... wanted to be... a LUMBERJACK!" (cue Monty Python song)
I took a quick look back thru this thread, great job,
one of the most sublime hijacks i've seen in DCSki history. I really couldn't identify a particular post, this baby just sorta drifted away from the bad karma. I feel like i should have a beer or two to celebrate tonight. Crush and I may be too far along the journey but Roger i think
a paving crew
is the place for you.
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I took a quick look back thru this thread, great job,...
Or it may be too late to turn back on this journey ... oh RITE JOURNEY! Oh'tay where is that CD .. damn my G/F I just looked in the CD racks she sold all the Journey CDs we have Marty Jones, Eric Johnson, and that beatch Ricky Lee Jones but no Journey! "Love is gonna Bring us back Alive" has offically crunched over "Any Way You Want it"!!!! .. The End is Nigh!!!!!! 
The real question Jimmy: can we hijack a hijack? This does not involve returning the discussion to the original question but rather creating a new thread off a hijacked thread.
VT has one of the best road construction programs in the country... shame I missed it. I'm angling to get into development right now. Looking at corporations that specialize in urban infill but have definitely thought about how learning the development process could translate into work for Intrawest, ASC, or someone else!
Of course, at the moment I'll just be happy to get out of here with a degree. As you can imagine, ever since I got here the department has been withering. Maybe I should go to work for the Feds and bankrupt them... oh wait damn someone beat me to the punch...
the 2005-2006 season will go down as a wash-out for a number of mid-Atlantic ski areas.
MM doom & Gloom... Just getting back on thread....13 inches of snow in last 6 days at the Shoe! Now to get back off thread...These Utah posts are getting me thinking!!
Believe me, I don't like being "Mr. Doom and Gloom", but I do try to call things as I see them. And, in my opinion, DCSki is in desperate need of some objectivity these days. First of all, the ski conditions at the Shoe are NOT typical of most (not all) mid-Atlantic ski areas. The base at most ski areas is quite thin right now. Second, PLEASE check the updated forecast for Feb. on NOAA.gov (and try not to blame and attack me). NOAA is calling for Feb. to be much milder than normal. Should their forecast prove to be accurate, we will see a number of mid-Atlantic ski areas close for the season by late Feb. with perhaps one or two ski areas closing as early as mid Feb. I don't know about you, but I would call that a "wash-out". Of course, the NOAA forecasts have been wrong in the past and hopefully they're wrong this time. On a more positive note, the Accuweather 15 day forecast shows temps dropping to well below normal by Feb. 1; however, the NWS seems to disagree with Accuweather and shows mild temps around the start of Feb.
Based on the long range forecasts for the Laurel Mountains from accuweather.com and weather.com, it looks like the nights might be cold enough to make snow @ night starting Monday evening and the daytime highs will remain in the mid 30's. As MM said, there is hope on the horizon starting next weekend... we can only hope accuweather lives up to its name.
You should not look at the long term exact temps that weather.com, NOAA, and accuweather give. Its the pattern that matters and all models and forecasters are predicting a much colder start to february.
Also, this ski season is far from a washout! I have had many great days of skiing at whitetail and roundtop. There were some three day periods that were crappie but almost every weekend was able to be salvaged due to snowmaking. I was at roundtop on monday and it was in absolutely perfect condition!!! With a cold december, a warm january, and a cold february this ski season should go down as a normal mid atlantic ski season; and my guess is that the best skiing is yet to come!!!!!
Welcome kgreener, good post, with implications of better ski weather soon.
As Langley said, looks like Saturday 1/21/06 is hump day for the warming trend, after that one forecast I saw is for highs in low 40s and lows in 20s (or colder) for the next two weeks or more, good trail count recovery weather.
My sense is that the mid-Atlantic is actually doing as well or better than some New England ski areas because of our more aggressive snowmaking in Dec. Those efforts left us in better shape to survive the long stretch of relatively mild temps that hit from Maine to Georgia. Here's hoping Feb is fab!
Feb 2nd or 3rd looks like a turn for good...will be snowing on the western front highlands tue nite & Wed this week...fri looks great....the temp is dropping as i write!
With 7 inches of fresh snow at my place, it looks like Winter has finally returned to Western PA. But, I'm afraid that it's going to be short-lived as it's supposed to get up into the 40s on Fri. with a good chance of rain by Sun. And, unfortunately, it looks like the overall mild weather pattern is going to return and stick around for awhile. This means plenty of days in the 50s (in the DC/Balt. area) and perhaps a few days that flirt with 60. At least there should be plenty of nights when most of the ski areas can make snow. Whenever the Northern branch of the Jet Stream dips down across the Great Lakes again, PA and the higher elevations of MD and WV should receive lots of lake-effect snowfall given the relatively mild water temps of the lakes these days.
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With 7 inches of fresh snow at my place, it looks like Winter has finally returned to Western PA. But, I'm afraid that it's going to be short-lived as it's supposed to get up into the 40s on Fri. with a good chance of rain by Sun. And, unfortunately, it looks like the overall mild weather pattern is going to return and stick around for awhile. This means plenty of days in the 50s (in the DC/Balt. area) and perhaps a few days that flirt with 60. ...
"Can't, won't, don't enjoy it...'fraid it won't last...might as well hang up your skis now...oh mine? gave those up a while ago... no time...can't stop worryin' 'bout next week's weather...always seems so rainy 'round here..."
I'm tempted to ask MM if you realize that we haven't been in an ice age since ooooh several thousands of years ago so snow just tends to melt a bit more often now than it did then. :P
I don't mean to come hurtling to Eminem's defense or anything, but maybe we're guilty of the same thing we don't like about him- focusing on the negative? Take a look again at his closing comments:
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At least there should be plenty of nights when most of the ski areas can make snow. Whenever the Northern branch of the Jet Stream dips down across the Great Lakes again, PA and the higher elevations of MD and WV should receive lots of lake-effect snowfall given the relatively mild water temps of the lakes these days.
That's not exactly negative- it's not brimming with hopeful abandon but he at least acknowledges the potential for good snowmaking weather and occasional powder shots like this one for the rest of the winter. I said something similar about the Great Lakes a couple weeks ago- warmer than average temps could help out a lot with clipper shots like this (I just think that the clipper shots will eventually become more sustained than MM does, but that's a matter of conjecture). A lot of the weather forecasters are calling for something similar in February and March.
I'd say there's no point in harping too much about this post, because it at least acknowledged the possibility that ski resorts aren't hurtling toward a mid-February armageddon. He's getting in the spirit a little! Baby steps, ya know...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11148450/At least I don't feel so bad about some other places getting some snow considering nation wide things seem to be warmer than usual. The ground hasn't even frozen here in Wardensville and that is RARE. Not counting last year when the same thing happened, all other years in the past the ground has been frozen from Dec-early April with maybe some warmups causing a few inches on the top to soften up. But below 4" it would be rock solid. Not this year.
It was almost normal in Miami and Los Angeles. They must have held their snowpack well.
Heh, those places should be forbidden land for snow lovers until May at the earliest. That and anyone else who doesn't like driving in snow.
And whats worse, EVERY SINGLE news station I watch throughout the day is PRAISING these warm temps as being a "great winter". I swear if the weathermen and newscasters wish to praise the warmth of winter, they should move to Cuba.
Have you been outside today? It's bloody summer out!
I agree that, even without human activity, the planet would be warming up since we are still coming out of an ice-age. And, ice-ages are cyclical events with prolonged warm periods in between. However, most of the scientific community now believes that human activity has speeded this process up.
For a mild winter, looks to me that snow totals (at least West of the Allegheny Front) are likely to end up close to or even above average this season. Canaan Valley is at 97-98" (2/3rds of their avg 150") with a possible 6-10" coming this weekend. Next week and weekend hold promise of additional accumulations of the frozen variety. Sure there has been a lot of warm weather - but there has been plenty of cold and snow when we needed it: December cold allowed plenty of snowmaking to establish bases. And a good part of the 98" of snow has arrived right on time - before Xmas week, MLK weekend, a couple days before last weekend. The expected turn to colder weather over the next couple weeks should make for great conditions come Presidents Day.
Last year was pretty warm through most of December and January. Even late into Feb we had received only 80-90" of snow in Canaan Valley. March turned things around in a BIG way last year. If we have anything close to that this March, we could be looking at snow totals over 180"-190". Not too bad for a "wash out".
We had to do an outdoor site visit to Roanoke yesterday. I was torn between enjoying the fact that I didn't even need a vest and being repulsed by the fact that I didn't even need to wear a vest. Do you know that they're building $1 million dollar condos in downtown Roanoke? 6,000 square foot condos that take up the entire floor of an old office building... but I digress.
Maybe the best place to live would be something like Sacramento. Oh, sure, it's got a reputation for being a hole, but you're only 90 minutes from Lake Tahoe and if it's 70 degrees in January in Sacramento, you don't really care because that's pretty common. So you can go golfing after work and on the weekends ski in 15 feet of snow. Yeah, there can be dry winters out there but at least you don't freak out if the buds come out on your trees at the end of January- they're supposed to.
Roger, you are thinking along the right lines perhaps. I have also thought of Salt Lake area, colorado and new mexico.
Today's driving rain (here by annapolis) by the way was nothing but depressing -- how the local resort will survive I have no idea... It's just dang dang depressing.
I was in Hagerstown and it was lashing rain. Took a look at Whitetails webcam and man it was a sorry sight. I hope they can get those guns running hard over the next few days I've got buddies who haven't even cut turns yet this season so for their sake I hope it dumps a little too.
