DCSki Forums

Chad

September 15, 2006

Member since 12/12/2000 🔗

274 posts

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1036 AM MDT FRI SEP 15 2006

...FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON EXPECTED SATURDAY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH..

A UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE STATE LATER TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND WITH THE COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM WILL
CAUSE PERIODS OF SNOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE WASATCH AND
UINTA MOUNTAINS. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/warnings.php?wfo...SNOW%20ADVISORY

Crush

September 16, 2006

Member since 03/21/2004 🔗

1,283 posts

It was freezing today in the house ... so I look outside and I see this!!!!

JohnL - DCSki Supporter

September 16, 2006

Member since 01/6/2000 🔗

3,570 posts

Quote:

It was freezing today in the house ... so I look outside and I see this!!!!

It lives!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Crush

September 19, 2006

Member since 03/21/2004 🔗

1,283 posts

Quote:

That pic just gives me the willies!!!!

... funny you should say that, my willie took that pic (pah-dum-pah .... groan).

Hey ya well my mine has been off skiing but after that snow event, it got me back in the spirit f-a-s-t!

So as usual I started lookin' at NOAA and historical snow stuff here in UT and whatnot and blah blah blah and here is my official un-expert prognostication for UT skiing for 06-07:

This year is somewhat similar to 2003-2004, which had early snowfalls in copious amounts. Also, in 2003 the first snowfall like the one in the pic came Sept 19th (I have a pic), and believe it or not the date of the first significant snowfall is a fair indicator of things here (last year it was almost at the end of Sept, and things were almost exactly two weeks delayed in terms of snow events). This, coupled with a summer of the near-record warmth across the West similar to the 1936 dustbowl year (it was a record winter for 1936-1937 for snowfall in SLC) makes me think that:

We will have significant snowfall by Nov 1, with Brighton opening maybe the first weekend of Nov (Nov 3.), and other places skiable if you care to hike/skin. We will have very good snowfall due to a weak to moderate El Niño, which is good for powder skiing.

But then again, what do I know?

Chad

September 20, 2006

Member since 12/12/2000 🔗

274 posts

Quote:

looks like a good prediction, crush. snow is now in the utah forecast for wed, thur, and fri:

here comes the snow:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/camera/mosaic/WasatchMountains.php

Crush

September 20, 2006

Member since 03/21/2004 🔗

1,283 posts

Quote:

all this snow isnt really a good thing, if it sticks around its going to be an epic year......for avalanches.

... yes quite correct, in general. An early snowpack has several problems, like Temperature Gradient Metamorphosis, or TG Met. A warm earth not cooled by winter temps can change snow deposited on it from a strong layer to a weak one with the snow becoming little pyramids and cups underneath a stronger slab ... and the more snow that builds the more dangerous it will become until it goes. Also, cycles of cold, the warm melting temps, then cold again (with snow) can form many layers of alternating snow strength, especially East to South East facing slopes of 30 degrees or more.

But you have to take the good with the bad ... the best season I had was 2004-2005 when in Jan. Dutch's Draw slid here just outside The Canyons' gate ...