A "Tale of Two Winters"
February 16, 2007
I'll have to admit that I never saw this one coming (or I just didn't believe some of the forecasts), the first half of the Winter with unusual warmth and the second half bringing in more cold than we've seen in MANY years. It's quite clear that, somewhere along the way, I had lost some of my objectivity. When all is said and done, the Winter of 2006-2007 will be known for a prolonged period of Fall (or Spring like) weather, which was followed by a prolonged period of arctic weather. Frankly, I never thought (due to recent climatic trends) that an arctic air mass could influence the weather in the mid-Atlantic for such a LONG period of time (and still counting). Needless to say, I'm glad that mother nature saved the best for last!
Good post MM.
Sounds like serious natural coming your way. Followed by the coldest air yet.
I'm pretty much just an interested bystander when it comes to the global warming debate, but one thing I don't contest is that weather volatility, extremes one way or the other, seems to be on the rise in my 50+ years in the mid-Atlantic.
MM,
Blue knob was great this weekend. I hope you got out there! You mihgt have noticed JohnL and I poached a few of your lines.
--Tim
so how much snow do you forecast, and what is the rest of the Feb.- March period weatherwise?
The Colonel
Big storm coming Colonel! There will be one big dump 9"+ before the end of the season. You heard it here first!
Not that they have much credibility, but NOAA is now predicting a warm-up that's supposed to start around the 24th of Feb. I'm going to be skiing Canaan and the Shoe for about a week (4 days at Canaan and 3 days at the Shoe) starting the 26th. Needless to say, should it get warm, I hope it doesn't rain. Some Spring skiing would be OK, but, keeping my fingers crossed that it doesn't rain. Of course, the weather could remain cold during that time-frame; however, a warm-up (to some degree) is probably the most likely scenario.
It will warm slightly, but not that much. The cold will remain with one big dump coming soon. Large amounts of snow will take the mid-atlantic into it's best spring skiing season in recent memory.
Remember you heard it here first!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sounds GOOD!!!! I know that 7-S has a deep base right now. And, barring anything unusual (like some very heavy rains), 7-S should stay open through most (if not all) of March.
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It will warm slightly, but not that much. The cold will remain with one big dump coming soon. Large amounts of snow will take the mid-atlantic into it's best spring skiing season in recent memory.
Remember you heard it here first!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hey, if it's true I'll buy beers sometime! We ought to have a DCski get together in WV one of these days, preferably when one of the snow dumps hits.
Presuming the mid-range weather forcasts are correct, much of the mid-Atlantic will feel the start of a WARM-UP by Feb. 20 (or shortly thereafter). Should this mild air event be the start of an early Spring scenario, then it could spell bad news for some ski areas, particulary if a number of rainy days accompany the mild air as predicted. In order for the 2006-2007 ski season to have a "soft landing" (at most ski areas within the mid-Atlantic), the coming warm spell needs to be rather brief (not more than 10 days in duration), limited in intensity, free of significant rainfall and followed by an early Mar. COLD shot. Hopefully, the aforementioned isn't too tall of an order for Mother Nature to fill.
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Presuming the mid-range weather forcasts are correct, much of the mid-Atlantic will feel the start of a WARM-UP by Feb. 20 (or shortly thereafter). Should this mild air event be the start of an early Spring scenario, then it could spell bad news for some ski areas, particulary if a number of rainy days accompany the mild air as predicted. In order for the 2006-2007 ski season to have a "soft landing" (at most ski areas within the mid-Atlantic), the coming warm spell needs to be rather brief (not more than 10 days in duration), limited in intensity, free of significant rainfall and followed by an early Mar. COLD shot. Hopefully, the aforementioned isn't too tall of an order for Mother Nature to fill.
Rain is the big worry, but the ski area bases can tolerate some rain. (Some rain will further consolidate the snow in the trees providing a better base for future snows.) Good news for ski area $$$ is that the key President's Day weekend will have outstanding conditions and winter weather.
With this prolonged cold snap, even a return to seasonable temps will feel like a massive warm-up. At least for inside the beltway NOVA, this warm-up is a return to seasonable temps (did a quick spot check this AM.) For example, the average high in Annandale, VA on Feb 22 is 50 degrees. That's certainly much warmer than what we've had recently.
Good old Annandale, VA, that's where I'm originally from. Anyway, NOAA just came out with it's forecast for the month of Mar. (or shall I say lack of forecast). In the mid-Atlantic Mar. is predicted to have NORMAL temps with NORMAL precipitation. However, the coming warm spell is likely to extend a few days into Mar., with some daytime highs around 60 extending as far North as Woodbridge, VA. If the Warm spell hits as predicted and Mar. proves to be normal, I would say that the higher elevation and western PA ski areas will fare pretty well; but, the close in, day-trip ski areas might find the going rather difficult. Needless to say, I was hoping that NOAA's chart for Mar. would show the mid-Atlantic shaded in blue indicating colder than normal temps.
Hopefully it will be short lived. With a bit of luck March will come in like a lamb and go out like a lion.
Sure hope so! And, keep in mind that NOAA has not been very accurate in predicting the weather this Winter. So perhaps they're wrong this time and we'll have a colder than normal Mar.
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close in, day-trip ski areas might find the going rather difficult.
IMHO, Whitetail is normally dicey anytime in March (but I have experienced the occasional frigid day there in March.) Anything past March 1st is gravy. But I do love skiing on a sunny 60 degree day at Whitetail, checking out the occasional bikini top, floating on the slurpee surface, bashing the soft bumps and dodging the brown spots. (I actually prefer skiing slop to skiing ice.) Roundtop keeps it's snow surprisingly well, even when the snow is evaporating at Whitetail. Not as certain about Liberty.
For many years I didn't really like Spring conditions, but I'll have to admit that I've gradually warmed up to it (no pun intended). Unfortunately, once we get into March, Whitetail's South exposure usually starts to take it's toll in a hurry.
