I am going with Sat Oct 10th

I'll go with 10-22

There could be a few flakes flyin around the highest elevations of WV early tomorrow....10th is out...I'm thinking the 18th..before oct is out for sure.

I'm not feeling October. I'm sticking with my November 7th guess. I hope it's sooner though. I'm sure nothing will make biochem more fun than sitting in class watching it snow.

What's the definition of "first snow" for this game? First measurable snowfall in WV, PA, MD, and VA?

First photographic evidence of snow in the air?

First photographic evidence of snow on the ground?


aaron

The first sign of snow settling on the head of Andy's statue at the top of MPC will suffice.

Yeh..we need a web cam up there for sure!...This is off the beaten thread but Killington(up high) & Mansfield & Co could get there 1st dusting wed/thur..

By the end of October definitely. For here (PSU) i would guess oct 29th, we seem to get at least a flake or so around the end of oct/early nov every year.

10/12

Models hinted & then backed off but this morn they are back on to something for early am 9th,10.. 11th?..Early snows are hard on the vegitation..Here is a quote from a Canaan Valley weather book.. "Valley smothered in a foot of heavy,wet snow;Trees damaged"..that happened on Oct 10th,1979..bad for the trees But pleasant to the nordic eyes!

Remember that day. Here in VA they had to close schools due to loss of power. I ended up cutting enough wood from downwd trees along roadsides to keep us heated all winter.
I'm going with the 31st. Went to the shoe back in 91, I think it was, and we had a surprise 6" on top after surviving their halloween bash the night before. Repeat performance

sticking with my october 22nd. Probably gonna be sooner though.

No no it will be a Tuesday.

Ok..Jimmi is down for the 13th,20th,27th of Oct...& every tue in nov....cheater..

Ughhh, its cold out there right now!!

possibility of a few flakes flying around tonight. Freeze and Frost advisories out. So Dolly Sods, MPC, might see a few flakes. But we will never know. Because i dont know anybody willing to hike up MPC and sit there all night with a video cam when its close to 30 degrees. Do you?

Oh wait, i bet David would be up for that??? lol

Naw, I know that Andy would love to do nothing better

Yeah, I definitely would be. Actually I would like nothing more than to be doing that right now. NOTHING!!!

I'd rather ride a snow white mixed with sky blue painted Gondola with the words "Almost Heaven" written in bold letters on all sides..all the way to the top..& then Have a beverage in the roundhouse lodge perched on a space needle type platform so as to soak up all of the West Virginia Alpps...in all of thier Glory...oh yeh...& to watch for the 1st Flakes!..

Lots of frost on the pumpkins this am! It won't be long now!

You been talking to Bill Bright lately????

I'll take Nov. 1.

BTW, what's sad is that we're more likely to get at MPC webcam before we get one at Snowshoe.

Sometime in recent yrs, I'm going to guess 03-05, I drove up after work in early Oct. hoping for 2" and found 4"+ even on Rt 32 coming up from Harman. This was very hard on the trees which still had most of their leaves. Broken limbs were all over the road I was stopped for about 10 minutes while a road crew chainsawed a big one. Next day there was a foot above 4000'. Had a very fine ski with Chip and a half dozen others. Somewhere I have pictures.

As to this year's first skiable snow, I'll go with Jimmy - a Tuesday before mid Oct. I'm retired. I like Tuesdays.

haha! I picked this date weeks ago in the canaan first frost/first snow pool. cmon big money!

8th to the 9th & then the 12th to the 14th are the next chance shots..

http://www.dcski.com/articles/view_article.php?article_id=842&mode=headlines
This years ice pack & cold generator remind me of 05...lets get a repeat performance!!

While the Westies are drolling over some pics on another thread I thought I'd show off the Subtle beauty of Canaan Valley after an early season snowfall right in DC's backyard..
http://dcski.com/articles/view_article.php?article_id=843

Ck out the 6th pic down..the Mountain just to the right in the back ground is MPC for all you folks that are wundering what we are talkin about sometimes....THINK SNOW!!

STATE COLLEGE, PA: (NWS)


Columbus Day: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: A chance of rain and SNOW. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

-Doubt it but hey, not bad for Oct 12th!!

Scroll the Shout box back a few posts. Dont know how long ago it was, but Ive had a feeling about this day for a while now...Tell ya what, I'll split the prize with ya if we win.

By the way...I was only one day off last year. I think I picked the 23rd and it snowed on the 24th. I'll have to find that thread...


Found it...I predicted the 29th and there was a trace on the 27th...

Last Years Thread

Scratch off the 8th to the 9th...Like L-Ski's NWS F-cast for State College Looks like the Watch is on for The Morn of the 13th...Then next chance is my pick for the 18th..Stay tuned!

PS..As of now I havn't seen any impressive Cold #'s way up north & the Snow cover is below Ave at this point but hoping for a turnaround soon to bring the motherload down for T-Giving..never the less its -9 up at Eureka,CA right now..1st real cold shot heading down for that 12th to 14th time frame mentioned above..

You opened this thread...& will lose by the way but if we get snow Tue Morn up at the Western front Alpps like the man made brains are showing..Does it have to stick?...we should have made that clear...who cares right?..Let it Snow!

TUESDAY October 13?????

Tuesday, Jimmy wins.

Last model run looked less exciting...see if the next run gets us you back in the running...Hey..ya got next tuesday if all fails

i think early next week somewhere within 2 hrs of DC will get some snow

Well..that ain't happenin..Models have been stacked & packed for cold/snow blasts for a couple of weeks now but when we get down to the nitty gritty they back down.Next stop on the fantasy snow train is the 16th thru 18th....stay tuned!

PS..Global Warming is evident here in the north Tampa area(Mother in law is I'll)..record breaking temps.
Good for late season beach swimming as that warm water works its way up the east coast past north cackilacky!

I spent about an hour above 4,600' here in the beautiful Mountain State yesterday. Talk about some bright colors! I may have a pic or 2. Some weather was blowing in so we lost light really fast.

Anyway, it was 82 when we left Lewisburg (2,000') and 65 when we got to about the highest point on the scenic highway. Plenty of wind too!! Bring on that snow!!

15 inches of snow in North Platte Nebraska today. 3 1/2 inches of snow in Omaha, freeze warnings here in KC. If this marches east, y'all will have your snow soon enough!

Rockies game Snow & colded out...Wimps..
Hmmmmm..record breaking heat wave in Florida...warmer than normal sea surface temps on East coast...Arctic fronts meeting warm moist air...BAMMMMMM!!!!!

Keep an eye out for later this week. Could be quite interesting, really wintry set up for the EC possible

Yeh..I said on the 10th that the 16th thru the 18th was the next chance...But..."Been there done that" F-cast.. Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has been Lacking till latley....Its now looking good..real good!
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

that is a ridiculous image for this early in the year... looks more mike mid december (if you only look at the central US)

I Know Bro..But Ck out Europe were they have way early snow cover on that norsky tip(Norway..Ect..)..thier snow cover will expand in the next couple of days...I'm thinking Positive for this winter!

Looking at the latest data I'm seeing that Fri Nite/Sat Morn (16th-17th) has a little better than even chance for the 1st up in the Highlands(yeh Right)....9 inches of snow Accum in Oct for Canaan Valley with a max of 15 is about it if it happens.I use Canaan because it will snow there before anywhere else in the MA....I picked the 18th...slow down Weather System!!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php...Field2=-79.4665

NOAA says it. So it WILL happen. Friday night's low is 32. Saturday says a chance of rain/snow showers. Let's get it on!


A buddy of mine wanted to do some road riding on the Scenic Highway this Saturday. I showed him this and he said No Thanks!! 36 with snow showers. I'll agree that I don't care to ride when it's that cold!!

Watching Weather Models is like watching a soap opera..6z Model swings the S-spot over PA (Blue Knob to the poconos)..waiting for the next episode..

Almost 100% chance of at least flakes if not an inch or so for at least someone this weekend in northern PA and possibly laurel highlands. I would not be surprised at all if 7 springs sees flakes this weekend. Possibility still exists that state college may get in on this action sat morning (which if is the case i will gladly post pics and gloat to the best of my ability)!

From the NWS:

CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ENSEMBLES AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY JET THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A GOOD FRONTAL CIRCULATION...CLOUDS AND AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE REGION THURS INTO FRIDAY. IF THE LOW ALONG THE COAST DEVELOPS AS IN THE GEFS EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE QPF EARLY FRIDAY.

THE -3 TO -4 SD EASTERLY ANOMALIES THAT DEVELOP...IN THE GEFS
TOO...ARE FOCUSED IN EASTERN PA AND POINTS EAST. THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST. THIS COULD CHANGE. AT THIS TIME...THE NOSE OF THIS FEATURE COMES WELL INTO PA. KEPT POPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN SOUTH AND EAST.

DUE TO THE ANOMALOUS COLD AIR AT 850 HPA AND 925 HPA...MODELS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SHOULD WE GET THE RATES SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE IN CENTRAL PA. EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST MADE WEATHER TYPE RAIN OR SNOW. THE 1200 UTC GEFS SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOW IS OVER CENTRAL PA. PROBABILITIES APPROACH 100 PERCENT AT TIMES THUR- FRIDAY. BUT QPF IS RELATIVELY LOW.

AT THIS TIME THE MODELS IMPLY THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE EAST OF THE HIGH PROB OF SNOW AREA. BUT THE ANOMALOUS LLJ IMPLIES THE QPF SHIELD COULD COME WELL WEST OF THE HIGH PROB OF 0.25 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF. AS THIS FORECAST GETS INTO THE SHORTER RANGES ONE COULD CONSIDER THE SNOW POTENTIAL BUT FOR NOW...DUE TO LOW PROB OF HIGH QPF KEPT IT MAINLY RAIN OR SNOW AND LEFT OUT MENTION OF ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.



This could severely distract me from studying for a micro meteorology exam on Thursday night.

The Big boys up north picked up a give or take 4 inches..with Killington blasting their guns since 1am this morn....Now its the Mid Atlantics turn!..Will be interesting to see if the highest Elevations can keep themselves in the snow long enough for a good coating. Early Thur & fri morn should see some snow when it gets cold enough before changing back to rain & then the main event starts overnite fri..into sometime Sun. The ground is still warm so..who cares..its a start!!..Get up to MPC David & take some pics of the 1st half foot of the year

Andy, MPC is too much of a trip for me to take from here in Lewisburg. The Highland Scenic Highway on the other hand isn't. As of now I'm planning on driving up on Saturday and hiking around for a bit. That is assuming I'm going to get to see some snow....


So Andy, I'm relying on you (sounds scary just saying that) to keep me up to the minute on conditions. I'm not driving up if it's going to be a cold rain. That sucks. Keep me updated!

Latest models destroy the higher elevations... could see localized foot plus in PA, MD, and northern WVA

You "Should" see Snow up there David but as of 230 AM Wed The MMB (Man made Brains) puts the highest moisture zone up in central & SW PA which is what I started to see a few days ago...But get up to The 4500' elevation on the HWY(Sun Morn looks pretty) & you Know how the WVAlpps roll
Yeh L-Ski, I've been seeing the big Figures but from what I've noticed over the years is that the Models seem to have a little Snow rust left over from the summer & don't factor in the fact that its Oct! There will Probably be a lot more Snow falling than sticks though & Elevation will be a major factor.I'm thinking Blue Knob Should pull off a decent snow..Weiss Knob & MPC in WV should get a few inches..maybe enough to get Denis up there...NWS will not commit to any Snow Totals till the last minute..

blue knob currently has snow in the forecast (nws) for every day between now and sunday.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php...78.5539&e=0

in october! did anyone see the bastardi winter outlook at accuweather?

Im expecting Winter Storm Watch later this afternoon for my area. Probably the earliest in the history of State College!

Hey all, I'm relatively new here..long time lurker..I had another handle before but it has been so long since I posted last I forgot it. Anyway, on that note looking at the weather for the weekend in Davis says snow, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday with highs in the mid-upper 30's!

If Joe Pa says so then it must be:

Penn State Football

Tussey Mountain after the game anyone??

Last year??? That was the cold & snowy Mich State game last year. This one would be much worse... heavy wet snow could bring down trees/power lines and hamper travel in the area. Would be a real mess... but I would be loving every second of it!

Would mean a very very cold rain/snow game... which would suck a lot

I linked to the wrong article, I'll find it

All the weather f-casts you all see showing Snow stretching into mon morn is due to this mornings surprise that a 3rd storm will blow up off the east coast for Sun...That one might Coax Denis & the like up to Whitegrass...Interesting weather watching days coming up!

As sweet... yeah, it wil be a MESS if it goes as predicted

An hour ago I noticed that it was 34 degrees both at Snowshoe & Canaan Heights...Well there has been reports of snow mixing in above 2500'...MPC at 4770?..

Just got off a roof...takin' some measurements. Whoever bet 10/14 wins.... Light on and off snow in Canaan Valley around noon today. First of the year!

Thanks for the Front line Report Tucker, But I think my Oct 18th(snowy Sun) is closer to being the true winner ..Hey L-ski..You ever take a ride up Rattlesnake pike which starts at Uniondale?..looks to be a snowy spot in the next few..Where are the highest areas around State College?

No I have not, but we are surrounded by hills that will be white by fri/sat. And likely here in SC we will have something on the ground.... Joe B at accu says at least 6 haha

oh and road cams in cumberland show snow just fyi... 33F with light snow!

I be willing to delete that post for a six pack of non-racecar beer ...

I got some renters booked at my house in Canaan coming in tomorrow thru to sun...I'm sure they booked for leaf peepin...They are in for a surprise!!

Isn't a case of "Race-car" beer the grand prize??

5:00 DS webcam update. I see flakes!!

Down here at my Camp in SE NC it was near 80 yest with surf fisherman up & down the Beach & folks enjoying the 76 degree surf temps as they swam...this morn it was 63 & now at 5:20 pm its 58!..Turned my heat on riding Home...Summer has come to a screeching halt down here..Next thing we know by looking at the winter F-cast map, we will be having Blizzard watches down here. I'm Hoping its a good winter at my Local NC mountain Ski Areas..& of course up at the land of Canaan, Although snow & cold just makes the ski areas up there...LAZY!..ier..

Can you link those cams. I forget where they are.

Thanks for posting that Chad..did you see where JB said this winter is looking like 02/03?....Canaan Recieved 233"'s that year!..Yes..My goal is 1000 posts this winter..thank you very much for your support..

1,000 posts?? To me that sounds like too much talking and not enough skiing...

I'll be posting from the lodge..You muddah!...Remember..If I ain't Posting..It ain't Snowin...Word!

This is also a good link for the armchair

also shows temp and humidity

Laurel Ridge X-C Webcam

That is a good link. And unlike some resorts reporting bases and totals, that stake does a decent job of underestimating the snow on the laurel ridgetops.
Also, as a more general weather comment...the NWS 7-Day forecast for my house, as of right now, is exhibiting 2 characteristics I have never seen on it before. Tonight and the 96 hours after it, as of now, show every single high and low in the 30s and forecast 50% or better chance of both rain and snow every single day and night. Messy forecast indeed.

That would seem backward to me... I hope you've got better things to do than post, if it's snowing!

aaron

Yeh..The Laurel Ridge Cam is Always on My Fav lists for the Winter..
I get overly Excited about the 1st Snow & make a silly Comment..& then get silly reprimands...Of course I have better things to do while at the Lodge while its Snowing other than Post...Hang out at the bar!...

I can confirm snow was in the air yesterday in the Laurels. HV, Laurel and the Springs had the white stuff flying.

Local forecast is calling for accumulation Saturday.

Looks like the Valley got a coating yesterday.

Dave's Weather Site

I am sure that it is a typo, but when I went on the my Crackuweather site for Somerset it says they are predicting 15.3 inches of snow?? They often have mistakes and typos. Where the 'Accu' comes from I am not sure.

dunno about accuweather, but here is the nws WINTER STORM WARNING:

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ctp&wwa=winter storm warning

i like this part best...

All snow outside with a coating on everything. Record for earliest measurable snow ever just broken in state college, records go back to the mid 1800's! I have a test tonight so I dont have time to take pics and post, but it is beautiful! Oh and temp is now 33 down from 38 at 8 AM!!

Check out PSU webcams or the webcam at accuweather's HQ (in State College)!!

Here is the snow map right now,
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rada...mp;animate=true

It looks like N/Central PA is getting the most.

Question. A year or so ago somebody on one of the sites I read posted a very nice picture trip report on skiing a few inches of snow on grass in an old state park in N/central PA. I can't recall the name of the park and I think it is no longer a state park. However it had 500-700 vertical feet of grassy slope perfectly pitched for junkboarding. Does that ring a bell with anybody? If so can you post a link.

Also what about Denton? Has anybody earned turns there in early of late season when lifts weren't running?

Found the park,
http://www.dcski.com/lostareas/viewlostprofile.php?id=15
Looks less exciting than I remembered. I'm looking for an area near the center of the blue region on the map linked above. Maybe Blue Knob is the best bet, although it is a bit south of the blue.

http://146.186.123.229/axis-cgi/jpg/image.cgi?resolution=352x240

@ PSU

Nice. I'm still waiting to see some flakes here in WV. Hopefully I get a chance this weekend...

Sounds like Denis is warming up the cahr.

about an inch now, hoping for another 1-2 before all over then maybe another 2 friday night. Amazing for october!

This is awesome! We've had some unbelievable cold here in the midwest- I've started a joke that Mother Nature is in recession too and couldn't afford October this year (ha ha???)- it's good to see it spreadin' East to a place where the snow might actually be useful!

Folks, this cold is not messin' around. We've barely broken 50 in 6 days now. This morning I thought "hey it feels nice out" it turns out it was 44 degrees and cloudy with a light breeze (which is about the same as our high the day before), it was the warmest I've felt at seven in the morning in days. I think what's comin' your way is gonna last a while, so enjoy!

3-5 inches as of this morning around state college with plenty of downed trees and a lot of the burbs w/o power. Accumulated on everything, including some roads. Really looks like winter out there!

Amazing...& then you go a little south & up on Laurel summit the leaves on the ground are barely white (.4 inch so far) Latitude is a big player in the Mid Atl, WV needs their Elevation to overcome..But they will get theirs later today thru to sun...Still waiting for a report from up at Blue Knob & I bet Elk Mt way up in the NE corner of PA is under a nice white blanket.

elk will do well but blue knob probably got into some of the warm air as well. From what I have heard, 25 miles from here there is no snow

Due to my partner being sick I don't think I am going to make it out tomorrow as planned. It's probably not a good idea that I take my little FWD Toyota up to 4,500 ft in the snow all alone. Kinda sucks, but oh well. I guess I should be studying biochem anyway.

On a better note. The plan is to spend tomorrow night running around the woods with a buddy chasing after the ever elusive WV raccoon. It is the first day of the season you know? I'm thinking that I'll still get to play in the snow, as the property we are hunting on is about 40 miles (as the crow flies) east of Snowshoe and tops out at about 3,500 feet. Maybe I can get a picture or two. That is unless I'm chasing (or being chased by) a black bear...

Hmmmmmmmm...Racoon..Tastes like Chicken!..Actually I heard it makes a great pot roast. How ya goin take pics at Nite?..Anyway there will be some moisture on that side of the Alpp Spine(better further north) with the low along the coast(The weather folks are very confused about the whole deal right now) but you are going to need as much elevation as you can get, so Jump as high a you can..then snap the pic!..Don't Hurt the little Coon.

How was the snow coon hunting last nite Davey..Crocket??..Well the WV Alpps finally got some Snow action up at 3715' Canaan Cking in with 3.1 new..don't know what SS got..little birdie told me that MPC had a half foot ..Laurel summit 1.9..so the Mambo Jambo Accu snow never came about But I'm hoping we get a Snow Check for T-Giving..Enjoy the warm up..Gone fishin...

It snowed off and on all evening. Didn't stick much though, other than just on leaves. I'm looking out at my car and the windows are covered. I'm at 2,600 ft.

Oh yeah, treed 1 coon and 1 bear.

Looks like Branch Mountain between eastern and western Hardy Co. received snow on the leaves visible at a several mile distance. I would say the elevation line for this was around 2500' minimum.

Quick hike up to Blackburn Trail Center on the AT this morning, slush on parts of the side of the trail and on fallen logs. This is about 1675 in elevation and about 25 miles west of Dulles Airport as the crow flies.

Thought I stick up a few pics of some snow that I've seen over the past day. Not much, but enough to get me excited.

This was taken this morning at 2,600 ft in Nicholas County WV.



I took this one from the backseat while on the way home from a cyclocross race in Fayetteville. This was right around 3,000 ft. The white almost completely disappeared when we dropped below 2,800 ft. It was pretty cool.


I almost forgot. In case you've never seen a hound that has treed a coon.
http://www.youtube.com/user/Drosophilamelanogas

Wintergreen got hit today for its first coating of the year...
http://www.wintergreenresort.com/ski_and_ride/

With most of the nearby ski resorts recording small amounts of snow this past week, it just goes to show that the '09/'10 ski season is right around the corner!

So i noticed snowshoe was making snow. I understand the it is necessary to workout any bugs in their system but looking at the weather for up there it's not supposed to get below freezing again for quite some time..

So I just got in from a 40 mile road ride. What a beautiful Spring day out there! Couldn't ask for better weather to be out on a bike. I'm almost going to miss it when it's gone....Almost.