Joe Bastardi of Accuweather & other scources have stated that they feel that we will have a quick start to winter before it mellows out in Jan..Joe made this predict months ago. Well Chris Bailey, a WV Weather man now has some data that he feels will back up this thought...
The GFS long Range that I follow has shown a cold shot between the 12 & 16th of Nov for 10 days (give or take) now so lets hope it pans out!
http://www.wsaz.com/blogs/chrisbaileysblog/Old_Man_Winter_May_Wake_Up_Early_106869728.html

anyone else getting flashbacks to 2002?

lets see...2002 had 15.5 Nov
44.1 Dec
82.5 Jan!!!
70 Feb
But then tailed off to 16.5 for March which totaled out the winter for Canaan at 233.1 inches....
I think this is the year for march so I'm thinking that we will see less for jan/feb & then the grand finale for march..Life's a Gamble & so is the weather but thats my bet!

PS..David posted a pic of SS going for the Snowmaking for real now on the "Who will blow" thread but they will have to wait out another week or so till the next serving of cold from the Northlands heads down..

Today's weather sucked for snowmaking.

Although, it did NOT suck for this little dandy.

Is there typically enough trails open around the Thanksgiving holiday to plan a weekend trip to say Snowshoe? I've never felt comfortable committing to an overnite that early in the season for fear that the slopes just won't be that great. Any thoughts or experiences on planning for a trip that early in the season?

Hey bud..T-giving here in the Mid Atlantic & even up into NE is a Gamble. You can get anything from not opening at all like last year (even Killington,Vt couldn't make it)..To more Snow than they knew what to do with (Parking lots full of Snow) like the year before, so DON"T make reservations...you won't need them anyway.
Usually you can expect at least 2 runs top to bottom on the Basin side at the Shoe anything else is just the icing on the cake like if Mamma Nature can throw in a little snow for Ambience & scenery.

As far as the the latest weather news its still up in the air & a real tuffy to figure out. About a week ago I began to get the feeling that we would have to wait till the last week to get any steady cold/snow to get the slopes ready & today it still looks like that could be the case but I do not see anything totally positive ATM to carry this cold thru the weekend...Too early to tell.

I'm always the cold/snow hound but I do not have a degree in meteorology but I also don't have a degree in Alcoholnomics & I'm pretty good at that!.. so take any weather F-casts you read from me with a grain of salt...on your margarita!

Been quite a while since I last posted on here.

Anyway, I am watching for any chance that Seven Springs maybe opened for by Thanksgiving. I'll be in the area visiting my brother for Thanksgiving. Would love to grab some first turns if Seven Springs ends up getting opened.

Yeah steve welcome back if anyone is open for t-day 7spings will be.

All I can say for sure is that this T-giving is going to be another right down to the Wire horse race.
There is some cold stuff building up in Canada that has been showing on all models to be coming down to the lower 48 but the timing has been all over the place.
Looks like there will be some rain to deal with early week (mon,tue,wed) & then things look positive for cold,snow & snowmaking for thur/fri....after that another cold wave for anytime between the 21st & the 24th.....If your jonesin for some skiing...stay tuned!

I'm not feeling it...might put MY (any other thoughts?)..Fork in it tomorrow morn...(Thanksgiving Skiing)
I sincerely hope that every bit of info that I have been able to get my hands on is wrong & somehow we get a good cold kick that has some staying power but like I said..I'm not enthused by anything.
The pros that Blog & F-cast including NWS, I think got Snookered by the European weather model which has just changed course for more of a delayed & now more of a more mellow cold wave after being the most consistent model for a real nice cold snap that would get some ski areas up & running nicely.

Where are you L-Ski??..I need Some help..Anybody?

PS..Still see very good cold coming after T-Giving into X-Mass....Famous last words?

PS..+..Head West young Man..

Anyone have thoughts about the likelihood that Wisp opens by Thanksgiving weekend?

I guess this is going to be my dailey personal blog...

Can we get a ski area open with a backside (how does Moisture affect snowmaking?) storm snow/cold event from thur nite into fri with the slimest chance cold enough temps for snow making hang on till sat morn...then a wait till tue nite (23rd)into some time late t-giving weekend for more cold?...like I said...I'm not feelin it...

I know...you are sayin its 12 days away till t-giving...you don't know what might change....ok....I hear ya!

Just some weather tidbits while we wait for winter...
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/weather...ture-change.asp

All I'm saying is that I am expecting my first time on snow this year will be Dec 4th in Steamboat, CO.... not at all counting on local areas. My t-giving prediction:

Snowshoe, few runs open on T-Giving, mostly thanks to the snow made last week. There is likely to be a short snowmaking window around next weekend then possibly nothing until the 25th-27th.

Everyone else, nothing.. doubt there will be anyone else open

However, week after tgiving looks decent (early guess).. What I am hoping for is a solid snowmaking week the week after thanksgiving to allow EVERYONE (snowtimes included) to open and have solid kickoffs to their seasons first weekend in december (while i'm enjoying some colorado pow pow).

Yeah, things are looking bleak!

http://www.dcski.com/ubbthreads33/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=55116#Post55116

We were having the same conversation this time last year. I'm hoping things pull together like they did.

And for a good laugh, scroll down at look at my post on the bottom of the 1st page. Kind of ironic that I say all that about December 19th and that turned out to be one of the bigger storms in the past several years. If anyone is wanting those kind of conditions this year, I suggest people start contributing to send the Mrs. & I off to Jamaica again during the same time. PM me and I'll send you my Paypal ID.

I sent My Brother up to killington to get some Thanksgiving Skiing in & they had a foot of snow up top the day he pulled in but the storm prevented any snowmaking at the bottom(too humid) + the fact that they only got a little slush at the bottom of the mountain...Close but no Cigar...Long ride back to Md cussing me the whole way! ...Coming up on your 1st year anniversary David!

Just cked this mornings run of both the GFS & the European weather Model & they both are in agreement that we will see rain on wed the day before T-giving turning into snow that nite (mid Atlantic High country..Alpps..)...at least we could see a White T-giving!

4 out of 5 storm systems are heading up just west of the mountains which is typical of El nina but that means we are on the warm side & like I posted a while back we will have to wait for the backside cold rush which gives snow to the highlands & just wispy clouds & snowmaking temps for the lowlands...We will Survive...sing it with me!..

I hope you are right. I am already jonesing to get some turns in, now that it is pretty much to cold to go paddling the river right now (at least there is the Flowrider at Massanutten to keep me entertained until then ).

Steamboat! Must be nice. Figured I'd leave this for you to get your whistle whet...:



That was from when I was there a few years ago. We got some serious pow-pow that week! Nothing like bashing through waist-deep on the backside!

Still watching this to see if it would be worth it to take my skis with me when I go up to Uniontown to visit my brother for Thanksgiving. If not Seven Springs, than maybe Wisp (as it is also kinda on the way) However, not looking forward to the idea of driving over those mountains in a snowstorm to get there, though! I tried to drive to Massanutten in that big one we had last December, only to get stuck on Rt 33 trying to get over that pass at Swift Run Gap. Ended up bailing and having to stay at a hotel in Charlottsville and waiting the storm out.

GFS looks gross... nice cold for the weekend but we shal see if that sticks around or if we keep cycling

Back on the 11th of nov I mentioned this little cold/snow event for today & tomorrow...well its now snowing lightly at snowshoe & Canaan with temps right at or just below freezing.
After this it looks like the main cold/snow blast we were looking for will come right at T-giving & looks to last for awhile so I'm hoping for some good skiing mid dec..untill then..I'll send y'all a postcard from sunny FL!

Before I send the Postcard I see where SS is still trying like Heck to open & made as much use of the very small Snowmaking windows available.
like I posted earlier..they have what they have now & thats it till the next shot coming in T-giving day/eve which is the real deal for awhile...

Here is the latest from Snow shoe...11/19 (yesterday morn)

There's nothing like the sweet sound of snowguns! Snowmaking resumed about 7pm yesterday and continued on top this morning. With marginal temperatures moving in as the morning progresses, we should be shutting down in the next few hours. Conditions weren't ideal overnight, but they were enough to add to the piles that remain from our last period of cold weather and we'll continue to add to them whenever possible as we look towards opening day. It doesn't look like we'll get another window of necessary temperatures until sometime next week. We'll continue to watch the forecast and we will make an announcement regarding opening day on Monday, once we have all of the information required to make an informed decision. Our snowmakers have been doing a fabulous job with the conditions they've been given, and they've made "smart snow", piling it up in areas to preserve it for as long as possible. The mild November wasn't too big of a surprise for weather gurus, as it's a La Nina year, which typically means a mild, wet fall. The good news is that as we turn the calendar in just a few days, we're looking at a cold snowy December. That means the Holiday period and really the rest of the season should shape up nicely. Be sure to continue to check out the daily pictures on the website for updates on conditions. With no snowmaking planned over the weekend, we don't update this report unless we have news to share. Have a great weekend and THINK SNOW!

PS..I am not sure where Wisp & 7springs Stand..any info?....I don't think the lower elevations helped too much..

I was looking up Wisp and Seven Springs to see if I'll get to ski either one of them this next weekend. I don't see any indication that they will be opened at all for T-giving weekend, which is bummer. I was hoping that I may be able to grab some first turns of the season while up that way.

The snow would be awesome, but I am not exactly thrilled at the prospect of having to drive through it over the mountains there on I-68 and then Rt-40 on the way to my brother's place for Thanksgiving. Guess I'll be keeping an eye on the weather and adjust appropriately.

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pu...54_lakesnow.jpg

Its a coming!...looking like Fri morn for the Rain/Snow changeover...

No surprised here. From the Snowshoe Facebook.

"OK Guys, we don't think this is that unexpected, but unfortunately Snowshoe will not be opening this week. We don't have a new anticipated opening date at this time. We do have some cold weather moving in on Friday, but it looks short lived. We'll continue to update as we have more information."

01-02 we were lucky to be skiing by Christmas.

SS waited till the last moment hoping for a small snowmaking window on wed morn but it just wasn't enough to get them going..They tried though so we should give them credit.

I don't know about x-mass this year but t-giving weekend into the 1st 3rd of Dec looks very good ATM...Timberline has a very good chance to hit it right this year with the dec 9th opening but remember that its a la nina year which has a lot of rain to snow events.
Never the less there is some excitement in the weather blogger world for some storminess with cold to compliment it so it looks to get Velly intelesting..stay tuned!

Well it's been a bad year so far. Usually I've made turns at Whitegrass by now. However all is not lost. I'll be in Boston with family for T day and a bunch of friends have a well established Thanksgiving morning ritual. We meet Wachusett at 7, skin up, ski down, and enjoy conversation and breakfast beers in the parking lot before going off to our respective family celebrations. Normally Wachusett opens on Fri. after Thanksgiving and this year is no exception. The snow will be there and somebody has to use it. BTW the mountain is friendly to skinning when the lifts are not running.
http://www.wachusett.com/TheMountain/AboutWachusett/SnowReport/tabid/456/Default.aspx
This year I am hoping that all 3 grandsons, 13, 10, & 6 will be on the trip.

Well, this is my countdown to taking Thanksgiving OFF from skiing. I'll let all the crazies have the mountains for the next 4 days.

Three days in so far this season - all this week. Over 6 feet of snow in Summit County since about October 20.

Today was especially nice. Three inches of fresh and North Peak opened at Keystone today, so I got in some season first tracks down some nice black and blue terrain. Went to the Outback yesterday, but it has been open for a few weeks, so things were a bit chewed up. North Peak today was much nicer.

In all the years I've been skiing this is the first time that I've gotten in season first tracks on good terrain.

Happy Turkey day to all.

Bob, I enjoy your reports from the west. Keep 'em coming, and if you want to throw a picture up once in a while, that's OK too.

Throw a picture? How about Bob sends that weather this direction? Is that too much to ask??