Snowmaking resumes as weather permits!
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fishnski
February 3, 2012
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
OK..Thats what it says on the Canaan ski area site but the mountain looks dead..on the other hand Timberline is blowing pretty good (at least at the base area..they love thier base!)
Its 23 degrees at the bottom & 21 at top..Watts up Canaan?...The weather is..PERMITING!! (Gov't + ski area = Nothing)

Whats going on at the other areas?
JamieGrose79
February 3, 2012
Member since 01/10/2009 🔗
108 posts
Not a damn thing at Liberty, Whitetail or Roundtop. I hope they can muster up some snow the next few nights for this weekend. I guess it will all depend on the humidity. The hills are looking like skid-marked undies. I did see the weather forecast showing all the oscillation patterns flipping opposite this first of February and staying that way. Let's hope it's not too little too late. I hope it stays true and gives us the weather we deserve. This has been a BS season. Then I get to hear all of the fruits telling me Al Gore was right. Come on man. Natural cyclical weather progressions. Lets hope we get a dump on February 12. That's my prediction.
Abe
February 3, 2012
Member since 11/14/2008 🔗
366 posts
Perphas ma-nature will cooperate with some natural snow-making Saturday night...

langleyskier's update on opensnow.com looks promising:

"Accumulations: Still very hard to pin down at the moment but its looking like ski areas in WV have the best chances for >3 inches of accumulation. Most areas will see rain at onset that will slowly mix or change to snow. Full update and map this afternoon"
FreshPow
February 3, 2012
Member since 01/2/2008 🔗
174 posts
Originally Posted By: JamieGrose79
Not a damn thing at Liberty, Whitetail or Roundtop.


Whitetail had guns that could be seen on the webcams, working off the top of UAD and the expert side at about 8:30 this morning. I crosschecked local temps for Mercersburg on the web and it stated 32. Website now says they got in a bit in last night. Initial snow report at 6AM didn't. From looking at the weather last night, it seemed to me any window would be from 5AM on. Narrow as it was..

..and full agreement on the 'BS season'.
Abe
February 3, 2012
Member since 11/14/2008 🔗
366 posts
Wow, the NAM is really hyping up the snowfall totals for Saturday night. It's a long shot... but I'll take it!

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=PBZ
SCWVA
February 3, 2012
Member since 07/13/2004 🔗
1,052 posts
Earlier this am, both NAM & GFS models were calling for less than 2". Now they NAM and some of the GFS models are showing anywhere from 6" to 14". Crazy, I hope they're right.
fishnski
February 3, 2012
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Yeh..ive been watching the nam for a couple of days now but my experience with that model is that it seems to exaggerate too much at times...the model did live up to its Hype earlier on this winter though so maybe its on to something.
The GFs wasn't showing anything at 1st but is trying to put some snow on the Map lately so when you see another model coming around to another its a good sign.

The temp line needed for snow at Canaans elevation is right at or a couple of miles south for the NAM while the GFS is right at or just to the north.
This is the type of set up that canaan is known for pulling off a snow event even though the NWS folks arn't biting...its a close one fellas!

PS..The Nogaps & the canadien & the euro all show how close this event is also...Maybe a wet snow above 3800'?..can we get a 3500'??..new models coming out now..see ya!

PS part 2..Slopes looking like skid marked undies?...Thats Grose..Jamie.. laugh
langleyskier
February 4, 2012
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Fish, I would definitely have to agree. The NAM has a tendency to way over blow precip/snow amounts in the 24-48 hours out range. The crazy totals it was depicting yesterday probably had about a 5% chance of verifying.

That said... forecast looks good for 7 springs, wisp, and hidden valley. Given they are a bit further north, it is much less likely they will see rain mixing in overnight tonight. My forecast for those areas is 3-6 inches of wet snow today and overnight tonight (already snowing at 7 springs).

Whitetail/Lib/Roundtop will do OK, generally 1-3 inches (maybe 2-4 for whitetail). VA areas will have a tough time with mixing, 1-3 sounds good for all VA areas.

For the valley, mixing will be more of an issue overnight.. as has been mentioned by others. 2-4 is my best guess but if it stays snow then 3-6+ is possible.

Snowshoe will have a hard time... mixing or changing to all rain for the heaviest parts of the storm despite its elevation.

Individual resort forecasts can be found at OpenSnow.com (updated this AM)
fishnski
February 4, 2012
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
BOY..You sure picked a great time to start your F-casting gig L-Ski..no time to warm up for ya..right into some seriously difficult projections now & down the road eek...
The site is looking good & its on my Favs list...Play time is over..Now get to work! smile

PS..the latest GFS just doesn't seem to want to yank that cold all the way down like the latest Euro model(extended further out F-casts)..Be watching Opensnow to see how everything evolves..
langleyskier
February 4, 2012
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
very true.. I'm not looking forward to tomorrow when I have to make a longer range prediction. Almost zero consensus between models or even from one run to the other of the same model! I do think we will have a few chances for snow but no real cold outbreak
fishnski
February 4, 2012
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Latitude With an altitude (I'll sell ya the rights to that saying L-Ski)...Snowing & 33 degrees at Canaan valley (3300') But further south its 37 degrees & raining up at 4800' Snowshoe..

PS..They have the latitude..not so much the Altitude but its looking like winter again at wisp & further north at the springs..heck yeh!

JamieGrose79
February 16, 2012
Member since 01/10/2009 🔗
108 posts
Let's see what this weekend of the 18th brings us. Most likely rain or nothing at all. Weather channel keeps pumping up for a big snow storm for the mid-atlantic. I always say if the weather channel is selling it, it stinks. They are horrible in their forecasting. I think they look at what other people are saying and update at the last minute. lol
snowsmith - DCSki Supporter 
February 16, 2012
Member since 03/15/2004 🔗
1,606 posts
They know us ski fanatics will actually sit and watch the Weather Channel just to see if the weather is favorable for skiing. They need a 'hook' to get us to watch and sell advertising. That said, InaccuWeather and the NWS have similar predictions as well as some of the popular weather blogs.
I hope they are right, this time.
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