Should Be a Snowy January and February,,
October 1, 2012
on the east coast -- if the forecasters are right.
"I think the East Coast is going to have some battles with some big storms," says Paul Pastelok, Accu-Weather's lead long-term forecaster in State College, Pa.
However, Mr. Pastelok predicts the battles won't start until January and then will extend into February. "November in the Northeast could be above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation, and December could be a transition month," he says. "By January and February it's going to get pretty cold."
Last year, the worst snowstorm in the Northeast occurred in late October, when some areas got as much as twelve inches of snow. The precipitation came at a time when the trees in most areas still had their leaves. As a result, the snow toppled trees and branches onto power lines, causing massive power outages that lasted as long as two weeks for some homeowners.
The difference this year is that a powerful current that runs along the coast of South America is in the process of shifting from a La Nina, with colder water temperatures, to an El Nino, which results in warmer seawater temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific. "It changes the weather patterns," says Pastelok.
Using this summer's weather as a template, Pastelok looked for what happened in the winter in other years when a weak to moderate El Nino formed. He found a similar pattern in 2002/2003 and 1953/1954.
In those years, storms early in the season drenched the Southeast and then headed out to sea. But, then later in the winter, the snows came.
According to the National Weather Service office in Boston, the winter of 2002/2003 featured below-normal temperatures and above-normal snowfall in many locations. "It was the coldest winter in nine years since 1993-1994," wrote the Weather Service, noting that it was a "stark contrast" to the prior winter, which was the mildest on record. In 2002/2003, the temperature was 10 degrees colder than 2001/2002.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/48679412/ns/us_news-christian_science_monitor/?__utma=14933801.1370939505.1342456207.1343226503.1345107506.6&__utmb=14933801.1.10.1345107506&__utmc=14933801&__utmx=-&__utmz=14933801.1342456207.1.1.utmcsr=(direct)|utmccn=(direct)|utmcmd=(none)&__utmv=14933801.|8=Earned%20By=msnbc%7Ccover=1^12=Landing%20Content=Mixed=1^13=Landing%20Hostname=www.nbcnews.com=1^30=Visit%20Type%20to%20Content=Earned%20to%20Mixed=1&__utmk=75210130#.UCy2Z92PUzI
on the east coast -- if the forecasters are right.
"I think the East Coast is going to have some battles with some big storms," .....
This looks like FISH bait?
Capital Weather Gang on Washington Post:
Inaccuweather Shoots Way Too Early AgainExcerpts from the linked page which I encourage you to visit.
But our team of winter weather experts and long range forecasters at the Capital Weather Gang (CWG) suggest Accuweather's forecast amounts to a speculative guess, and is about as likely to be wrong as it is to be right.
The principal reason Accuweather favors big mid-Atlantic and I-95 snows is tied to its expectation of the development of a weak-to-moderate El Nino. A weak-to-moderate El Nino it says "feature[s] a strong southern branch of the jet stream across the U.S." than can join up with the northern branch of the jet stream and produce big East Coast snow storms.
But CWG's winter weather outlook lead author Matt Ross cautions it's too early to predict the strength of the El Nino. Furthermore, he doesn't think a weak-moderate El Nino guarantees big snow production even if it materializes.
"I believe a weaker event would not be as favorable for cold and snow in the D.C. area as Accuweather is suggesting," Ross said.
Matt Rogers, who also specializes in long-range forecasting for CWG, said it's important to recognize El Nino winter has produced widely varying snowfall totals in the region.
Last year at this time, Accuweather's Henry Margusity predicted "near normal" snow along the I-95 corridor and above normal snow in the mountains. Most of this region experienced much below normal snow.
Junker's response to Margusity's prediction at the time was: "I think it's too early to make any definitive call about snow or even what the winter will be like."
CWG's winter outlook will be issued in the fall.
agreed on not getting to excited about this forecast given accuweather's track record. i certainly wouldn't buy a season pass based on it!
I can easily see a scenario with lots of big storms but with the ocean temps being so warm, these storms could be all rain for local areas.
Just got this
forecast from the Trout Farmer.
