Winter Coming Back With a Vengence After Warm-up
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The Colonel
January 7, 2013
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
3,110 posts
http://kyweathercenter.com/
Be sure to read Chris Bailey's winter blog. He sums up pretty well what Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell and other are saying about the ultra cold coming mid-late next week.
Hang in there skiers, the South will be white again!!
Meanwhile, let's think meterologically POSITIVE!!!
The Colonel
Blue Don 1982
January 8, 2013
Member since 01/13/2008 🔗
1,595 posts
I hope the rain is minimal. Based on what I've seen at Hidden Valley and Snowshoe the past 2 weekends, there is plenty of snow on the ground. I'd hate to see a lot of it wash away this weekend.

Unfortunately, I think this weekend may be a non ski take down the outdoor Christmas decorations time for me.
lbotta
January 8, 2013
Member since 10/18/1999 🔗
1,535 posts
I have mixed feelings. I'm at Snowshoe and there's so much snow in our parking lots that parking is difficult and plowing is all but impossible. A little shower to wash away some of the crud would be welcome. And Thursday we're on the way to Tremblant for a week, so the "heat wave" means that we'll have temperatures in the teens to twenties on the Laurentians, better than the Minus teens to Minus twenties.... :-)
Denis
January 8, 2013
Member since 07/12/2004 🔗
2,352 posts
I sure hope so because I'm not seeing anything encouraging in the short run.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.1287189&lon=-79.46477390000001&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=Davis%2C%20WV%2026260%2C%20USA

I fear that we are headed for a pendulum winter with swings to the extremes as we saw in Nov and Dec. with little time spent in the normal zone.
Finsout
January 8, 2013
Member since 01/23/2001 🔗
104 posts
roundtop is shaping up to be a 'caution: thin and bare spots" weekend.
Blue Don 1982
January 8, 2013
Member since 01/13/2008 🔗
1,595 posts
Originally Posted By: lbotta
I have mixed feelings. I'm at Snowshoe and there's so much snow in our parking lots that parking is difficult and plowing is all but impossible. A little shower to wash away some of the crud would be welcome.


I saw that this weekend. I arrived late Friday and had to park up on a snow mound.

Once the last of "holiday" crowds left on Sunday, we had a big front loader come into our lot at Mt Lodge and move what they could.
JohnL - DCSki Supporter 
January 8, 2013
Member since 01/6/2000 🔗
3,565 posts
Sorry Colonel, I'm not seeing much optimism in the forecast for the next two weekends. Current forecast is not real promising for Timberline/Canaan Valley having a lot of trails open MLK weekend.

Some of the models Chris Bailey is referencing show well upwards of one inch of rain before/during this weekend. That will kill a lot of snow. Even when snow making temps return, T-Line can make snow on basically two trails at once. (Anyone disagree on that assessment?) It takes ~4+ days of snow making to open a trail. OTW and Twister have been the most recent snow making focus and will need a lot of snow making after this upcoming rain. The rain is very likely to close Upper/Lower Thunder, Upper Thunder under the lift, The Drop, Almost Heaven and sections of Silver Streak.

Hope my assessment is wrong. Maybe a major storm develops towards the end of next week when the cold returns.

Edit: wish I would be able to make it down and ski a day this week before the rain hits, but life has intervened.
TomH
January 8, 2013
Member since 07/6/2005 🔗
375 posts
Blowing Twister before the front 3 is a crying shame.
The Colonel
January 9, 2013
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
3,110 posts
I was primarily talking about Snowshoe and it's powerful snowmaking capability + altitude. Read IBotta's posting about too much snow at this time! While it might be icy for MLK weekend, hopefully the Shoe can hang on to what they presently have open. If any resort in the mid-A can, it will be the Shoe!
The Colonel
Sincraft
January 9, 2013
Member since 09/5/2011 🔗
256 posts
I truly hope that it gets cold again. I was finally getting used to this. I can't imagine what this warming then cooling is going to do to our immune systems, during a pandemic flu outbreak .yikes.

60's in Jan, when it should be the coldest. This doesnt concern anyone?
We had our warmest year on record last year in the United States.

Something not right. I dont believe climate experts, I only believe data and try not to draw conclusions,...instead I just worry and pace around the room chewing nicotine gum. 2mg now, switched from 4.
djop
January 9, 2013
Member since 03/18/2002 🔗
343 posts
Hmmn. Saturday looks horrible.

Who's for doing a retro day, just to spice things up?
Voila
January 9, 2013
Member since 12/17/2011 🔗
352 posts
Retro as in biking wool jersey?
I am certain that it will be super warm, then super cold, then super warm again.
Time to be more "versatile" during our winter months (I guess).
JohnL - DCSki Supporter 
January 9, 2013
Member since 01/6/2000 🔗
3,565 posts
Quote:
Read IBotta's posting about too much snow at this time!


Which caused me to spit beer out my nose. This ain't Tahoe.

The EC always seems to get a January thaw. What sucks is that we also had a December thaw (most of the month.)

Denis may be correct. This could be one of those roller coaster years; just as the snow pack gets to pretty nice levels, it goes back to nearly zero. We'll see.
fishnski
January 10, 2013
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Sincraft..Gotta come up with a good Smurf name for ya...BTW..china is having its coldest winter in 30 years..huge land mass BTW..And I just came off a very cold month down here in the Cape fear region of NC..BUT..it felt like Australia down here yest with the Aussies having a burnt shrimp on the barbie time of it right now..weather goes on...

Been watching the models everyday as usual and after posting to my family over a week ago that I thought MLK might work for a get together in canaan due to the colder air coming back for the wed/thur time frame it still looks like they could turn on the guns by wed nite.

I'm still concerned and might pull the plug on the trip since I have no idea what Canaan And TL can get covered by sat..thats where some of uall above my paygrade come in...if the guns start wed nite...what am I skiing sat/sun/mon?...will skip sat if needed and start sun to give them more time...thx in advance.
JohnL - DCSki Supporter 
January 10, 2013
Member since 01/6/2000 🔗
3,565 posts
Quote:
I'm still concerned and might pull the plug on the trip since I have no idea what Canaan And TL can get covered by sat..thats where some of uall above my paygrade come in...if the guns start wed nite...what am I skiing sat/sun/mon?...will skip sat if needed and start sun to give them more time...thx in advance.


It's always 30 degrees and snow covered in Timbers...

I can give you a better idea Sunday PM after skiing this weekend. From the top: WL, Dew, Sally, OTW certain to be open. Twister less certain, but likely (it does take a lot of snow to open.) ? in my mind: Heaven and Thunderstruck. Both will be needed for the holiday crowds.
djop
January 10, 2013
Member since 03/18/2002 🔗
343 posts
Originally Posted By: Voila
Retro as in biking wool jersey?


Retro as in "pull out the 210cm Elan RCs for slush stomping".

I could probably find some wool racer pants someplace.
JohnL - DCSki Supporter 
January 11, 2013
Member since 01/6/2000 🔗
3,565 posts
Hey Fish, now looking like cold returns to the valley on Tuesday? Do you concur?

Just need to make it through the next four days...
SCWVA
January 11, 2013
Member since 07/13/2004 🔗
1,052 posts
They don't seem to be calling for as much rain and they've lowered the high temp for Saturday from 67 to 57F. I skied Wisp yesterday and didn't notice any bare spots on trail. I spent a majority of the time skiing the trees and the soft natural bumps on Devil's Drop. DD did have some earthy features by the end of the day. There's still a lot of natural snow up in the highlands, hopefully the rain & warm doesn't wash away all the snow and it freezes up solid for a nice base for the rest of the season.

I'll try and post some pictures later.

fishnski
January 11, 2013
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Originally Posted By: JohnL
Hey Fish, now looking like cold returns to the valley on Tuesday? Do you concur?
Just need to make it through the next four days...


Hey johnnyRebL.ight..I cked out my last model run last night and after realizing that Mamma Nature is WAY above any Man Made brains Paygrade I did some averages and came to the conclusion that my MLK trip is on..Some members couldnt wait any longer to confirm due to work..ect...

Yeh...the variuos models had the colder air coming in any time between Mon Morn and wed Morn so I figured that after the borderline Temps..Snow/Mix..ect was done Wed night looked like the best time for the guns to blare.
I havn't cked anything weatherwise out today cuzzz Im done...it is what it is..Surprise Me!!!....so if u make it up sunday and file a front Line Grunt Report..dont think Im rude if I dont respond..I'll b too scared to read it eek...

PS..Im hoping for a couple of snow chances that were popping up anytime thru the period (mon thru to tue morn day after MLK weekend) depending on which version u believe in...Seemed like there could be some impulses moving thru with each cold push or clipper type systems...SURPRISE ME..Ill b there..
fishnski
January 11, 2013
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Originally Posted By: Sincraft
I truly hope that it gets cold again. I was finally getting used to this .yikes.
60's in Jan, when it should be the coldest. This doesnt concern anyone?
We had our warmest year on record last year in the United States.

Something not right. I dont believe climate experts, I only believe data and try not to draw conclusions,...instead I just worry and pace around the room chewing nicotine gum. 2mg now, switched from 4.


Freon!!!...Thats ur Smurf Name!!...Most Snow in Israel in 20 years...Dont forget that the antarctic..the zone that Australia is having a heat wave right now had a record ice extent this last winter...Weather....Go Figure!

PS..with all due respect...I can understand where ur coming from...Smurf..
lbotta
January 11, 2013
Member since 10/18/1999 🔗
1,535 posts
Meanwhile, I'm in Mont Tremblant with temps in the '30s and freezing rain, virtually unheard for the Laurentians this time of January. But the snow is awesome.
fishnski
January 11, 2013
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
You will start to feel comfortable Tue...same time as your SS joint!....Enjoy ...
lbotta
January 11, 2013
Member since 10/18/1999 🔗
1,535 posts
Can't come any sooner. We came over dressed in the way I remember this area and we're waaaaayyyyy overdressed. Not a bad thing to have as we can shed layers but I had even brought the super heavy arctic thermal underwear and had to buy all new stuff here. Oh well...
David
January 11, 2013
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
New stuff is never a bad thing smile smile
David
January 14, 2013
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
Temps in the Valley 37 and dropping.
jimmy
January 14, 2013
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
2,650 posts
Originally Posted By: SCWVA
They don't seem to be calling for as much rain and they've lowered the high temp for Saturday from 67 to 57F. I skied Wisp yesterday and didn't notice any bare spots on trail. I spent a majority of the time skiing the trees and the soft natural bumps on Devil's Drop. DD did have some earthy features by the end of the day. There's still a lot of natural snow up in the highlands, hopefully the rain & warm doesn't wash away all the snow and it freezes up solid for a nice base for the rest of the season.

I'll try and post some pictures later.



SCWVA, Wisp still looked in pretty nice shape Sunday afternoon. We had a really nice weekend skiing March condtions at Tline, small crowd,no lines. so when is it winter returns??
djop
January 14, 2013
Member since 03/18/2002 🔗
343 posts
Maps look pretty good for Tuesday - how's 7S holding out?
fishnski
January 14, 2013
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Originally Posted By: jimmy
so when is it winter returns??


About 730 pm at top of Timberline/Canaan...and then down to the bottom of the lifts at 830pm...SNOWING!...

Still sticking to my original 1stcast of snow/sleet rain ect till the snow guns can turn on wed nite...thats when the temps and humidity will b right...believe me..Im hoping it can happen sooner!!!
lbotta
January 14, 2013
Member since 10/18/1999 🔗
1,535 posts
Well, Tremblant's temperatures today diving from the 30s into the single digits with minus zero tomorrow. The entire resort was a sheet of ice, but their groomers started working early and opening the trails progressively.
Mo
January 14, 2013
Member since 03/26/2001 🔗
33 posts
Lou, thanks for the info on the temps/conditions at Tremblant. Have you ever been to Mont Saint Anne or Le Massif near Quebec City? I've heard these Eastern Canada resorts can be pretty icy. And with this up and down weather, I imagine the conditions are not too good.
JohnL - DCSki Supporter 
January 15, 2013
Member since 01/6/2000 🔗
3,565 posts
Quote:
Still sticking to my original 1stcast of snow/sleet rain ect till the snow guns can turn on wed nite...thats when the temps and humidity will b right...believe me..Im hoping it can happen sooner!!!


Unfortunately, that's what the f-cast is looking like right now. There seemed to be a brief f-cast window where Sun PM + looked good, but no mas.

T-Line (and other areas) better be aggressive with snow making once the window hits. Otherwise, MLK crowds and limited terrain could be interesting. For T-Line, I'm getting a bit worried about OTW this weekends. We'll see.

First arctic air of the season hits early next week.
bousquet19
January 15, 2013
Member since 02/23/2006 🔗
789 posts
Originally Posted By: JohnL
Quote:
Still sticking to my original 1stcast of snow/sleet rain ect till the snow guns can turn on wed nite...thats when the temps and humidity will b right...believe me..Im hoping it can happen sooner!!!


Unfortunately, that's what the f-cast is looking like right now. There seemed to be a brief f-cast window where Sun PM + looked good, but no mas.

T-Line (and other areas) better be aggressive with snow making once the window hits. Otherwise, MLK crowds and limited terrain could be interesting. For T-Line, I'm getting a bit worried about OTW this weekends. We'll see.

First arctic air of the season hits early next week.


Good discussion.

I'm glad we're through most of this January thaw. Good riddance.

So, who's likely to have the most open terrain and the best skiing conditions by Friday morning, January 18? In addition to Snowshoe, my figuring is that Wisp should be in particularly good shape. Over the weekend, I'd noticed that the Blue Knob area was expecting subfreezing temperatures Monday night, so I don't know whether they've started snowmaking already.

Does anyone have an idea about how much base the more easterly areas (Whitetail, Liberty, Massanutten) lost?

Woody
marzNC - DCSki Supporter 
January 15, 2013
Member since 12/10/2008 🔗
3,370 posts
I was at Mnut last weekend. Coverage at the top on DJ and Showtime was still pretty good on Sat afternoon. Southern Comfort and Pacesetter were looking thin. There was cloud cover on Sun, so didn't feel as warm as it was. If it doesn't rain too hard, Mnut should be in good shape by the weekend. Had to post on their FB page that they were open on Mon because a local radio station was saying they were closed. They closed at 4:30 on Mon and re-opened at 9:00 Tue morning. Website says no night skiing until Fri night, Jan. 18.

Turns out Mnut started automating snow guns in recent years. Eight more are set up for 2012-13. They have 20 automated out of the 250 they use. Like Wintergreen, it makes it easier to blow snow in marginal temps.





The new webcam makes it much easier to have a sense of Mnut's snow status. Rotates to show snow tubing, terrain park, Geronimo, and a zoomed view of the top of the mountain.

http://www.massresort.com/v.php?pg=728
wgo
January 15, 2013
Member since 02/10/2004 🔗
1,681 posts
Wondering how much wintergreen will have open by Friday morning - they are down to 6 trails. Website says more trails will reopen by MLK weekend so hopefully by "weekend" they are including Friday as well. Kids have the day off from school and we want to take advantage of it.
Laurel Hill Crazie
January 15, 2013
Member since 08/16/2004 🔗
2,053 posts
Low temps in the northern Pittsburgh suburbs were in the mid-20s last night.
djop
January 15, 2013
Member since 03/18/2002 🔗
343 posts
Meantime, to our southwest:

Sincraft
January 15, 2013
Member since 09/5/2011 🔗
256 posts
Originally Posted By: djop
Maps look pretty good for Tuesday - how's 7S holding out?


7S is not doing well. Their slopes have many areas that you must carefully transition from one part of the slope to another through very small areas of coverage. Snow bridges if you will. I have never seen this during Jan. Usually April.

Many slopes closed. They are very limited in terrain. If we went into another week of these recent temps and rain, they would have needed to close.

Crazy eh? Strangely though, I didnt really pay attention to the temps/rain however from my memory, we have had FAR worse and the slopes have survived normally much better.

I blame this on 7S poor snowmaking. They have been known all this season to be blowing water on top of all that fresh we had. They ruin what good snow we do have. They MUST upgrade their garbage old systems they feel some unfounded joint to. They need better people monitoring the ongoing snowmaking to ensure they arent blowing water like they have done so many times this year.

HV is doing much better as expected with their superior snowmaking AND , they dont blow water leaving the good snow.....good. Best place to be this weekend in my opinion.

7Springs is to be avoided like the plague this weekend. They simply do NOT have the slope acreage open to handle the crowds.
JohnL - DCSki Supporter 
January 16, 2013
Member since 01/6/2000 🔗
3,565 posts
Crap, lot's of rain tonight in DC. NWS indicates some more rain Wednesday for places like CV and Liberty. Assume the same for 7 Springs. I thought the base erosion would be done by Monday, but it looks like it will extend until Wednesday.
Tucker
January 16, 2013
Member since 03/14/2005 🔗
893 posts
..rained all night in valley, rainin' now, callin for rain all day...will be interesting to see how much is left...I'm bettin its gonna be thin...
fishnski
January 16, 2013
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
There did seem to b some freezing a little further up...the base flirted with freezing but stayed just above most of the night.
U can see some ice on the trees on the tl cam..a little sheen...Guess it could have been worse.

Question is...will CV/TL turn on the guns when the conditions get right...I mean..right at that moment or do they work shifts where they could miss a couple of hours of snowmaking waiting for the morning crew to get in?...

..Temps should get down to freezing by sunset with maybe some teasing snowflakes but with another pesky system pushing up from the south it might push off the real good snowmaking conditions back again mad...it will happen some time time tonite but will the crews b on top of it??...at a place like wisp doesn't the system just turn on by a automated computer trigger?
imp - DCSki Supporter 
January 16, 2013
Member since 01/11/2007 🔗
304 posts
THE tecno alpine system at Hidden Valley and also some at wisp has a weather station on each gun. temp, humidity windspeed. They are turned on by computer from the
control room . instant startup with a guy checking them carring a blackberry to do adjustments.
they can change direction or oscilate them as needed from either control.

imp
lbotta
January 16, 2013
Member since 10/18/1999 🔗
1,535 posts
The conditions at Tremblant went from awesome to terrible in two days. The rainy day was great (I bought a Descente rain tarp to wear) but then overnight the temp plummeted 40 degrees and the resort was a sheet of ice. Only about 15% of the terrain was open on Monday, but the new groomers they have there made mince meat of the ice and turned it into beautiful small corn. They groomed throughout the day and towards the end of the day, about 85% of the terrain was open, including the steeps of Kandahar, where we delighted towards the end of the day.
David
January 17, 2013
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
Old Man Winter is back with a vengeance...unfortunately he's a little south of where he should be. At least by WV resorts are concerned. Looks like Winterplace may be the money spot (1st time anyone's ever said that!!)

Princeton, WV about an hour ago!


2,000th post stoke cool
David
January 17, 2013
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
Per Joel at OpenSnow, Beech Mtn in NC is reporting 11" so far.
Must be nice...

...meanwhile somewhere in Western Pennsylvania Sincraft is kicking his dog/child/wife, in no particular order.



Charlie
January 17, 2013
Member since 04/12/2008 🔗
69 posts
I'm wondering where Old Man Winter went to for the season. I'm beginning to have a weak moment and beleive that Al Gore might be right.

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