So it looks like I might be able to make it out to either TL or CV for a midweek day trip sometime in the next two weeks. So now I am trying to figure which would be the better week to go - next week (feb 25-28th) or the following week (March 3-4). Any advice? I think another thread mentioned the long-term forecasts showing the possibility of some snow in early March.

I know in the Mid-A you have to get it when you can get it, but do I get what there is to be got now, or take a chance that I can get it when there is more to be got...err, you know what I mean.

Bill, It's been a long time since we've had significant snow in March, I'd like to think we are due. When do you have to decide?

I'd like to decide by this Sunday.

I came to a conclusion a while back that you should plan last minute (even book a few days before you go) and wait for short term forecast as long term forecast can't be trusted. In March you shouldn't have problems finding lodging last minute.

Tomorrow (2/21) could be one option. Tree base is great, plus forecast calls for some light snow today/tonight.

Looks like a very active pattern for the next 2.5 weeks or so. Unfortunately, some warm air periods mixed in with the active pattern, so who knows what we'll get.

I'm thinking I'll look at how things are shaping up as of Sunday night with an eye towards going on Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday. Looks like a chance for snow Sunday night and rain/snow Monday eve into Tuesday (per NWS Davis forecast).

I can pretty much guarantee that if I go next week then there will be an epic snowfall the following week, so you should all plan accordingly

The Valley is even better when either Jimmy or myself is skiing Utah.

There is talk of a potential big storm towards the end of next week. This weekend's storm looks to have mixed precip, so I'm not certain the surface conditions will be all that great early next week compared to what is been (would be better on a warmer day next week.)

Cover is a bit thin, but check out Almost Heaven. Some nice baby bumps+ on it.

Hmmmmmm...........

Like JL posted it looks like an active back n forth wet/frozen till the aft/eve of tue the 26th.
..then both the euro and the GFS have it staying consistently cold with a snowy look as a low pressure system looks to pass thru the alpps ..head up..then retrograde back over the lakes spinning for awhile pumping cold air and spinning unpredictable pieces of energy back towards our local snowy playground..
.its looking..NOW(stay tuned)..like the cold could stay around a week after the 26th...We cannot see or trust anything beyond that..

If that scenario changes...even though its been showing pretty consistently in the long range...Im thinking the changed f-cast will be just something we would like anyway..Like JimmY posted...we r due for a good March!!!!!..think pos...

So I'm thinking next Thurs (2/28) or Friday (3/1) of heading out to TL, depending on how the week unfolds weather-wise. Anyone planning on being there either of those 2 days?

Bill

I posted that 3 days ago and here is some of you alls fav weather dudes latest...
http://kyweathercenter.com/?author=1

Like our local French Canaanian would say....Voila!

Voila Part DEUX..NWS f-cast..as far as they go out at this point..

Tuesday Freezing rain likely before noon, then snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 40%

It looks to continue that theme thru the weekend and into the next week...I bet the 2nd weekend in march will be a goodin...

What's the latest thinking on the weather? I am tentatively planning on heading either to "The Valley" or maybe to Snowshoe if I buy their $199 pass this weekend with my wife. How much will the rain today hurt the base? According to NWS there might be between a half and an inch of rain in Davis today before snow. Looks like a good chance of snow every day through this weekend though NWS is showing low snowfall totals, maybe an inch per day, so probably not enough to totally recover from the rain today. But if you believe the Chris Bailey chart we are looking at 10+ inches of snow through this weekend for the Alpps. What is the consensus on here, awesome weekend of skiing in WV or mediocre?

2PTOG - Reminder - That pass sale is only on until Thursday, 2/28/13.

From the WG website, right up above my ugly mug...



"Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman differs significantly with public forecasts through mid-week in the Canaan and surrounding high country. While public forecasts have a "Winter Storm Watch" posted for periods of snow, sleet and freezing rain from Monday night into Wednesday, I do not anticipate the ice amounting to much in the WV high country. I see a mainly rain event (about three-fourths of an inch) more likely out of the next system through early Wednesday morning. I believe strong SE winds will usher in milder, above freezing air at higher elevations with this storm, resulting in rain there. Some lower, deeper valleys like Germany Valley (Seneca Rocks) may get cold air trapped in, resulting in more ice there. While the rain may start with a brief period of icy precipitation in the high country, I see a changeover to plain rain in higher elevations of Canaan and above quickly within several hours. Wednesday morning I see colder air working in with rain showers turning to snow showers above 2,500 feet elevation during the morning. Some snow accumulations are possible Wednesday in my opinion. Again, I do not see rain likely Wednesday as indicated by public forecasts for the high country. Beginning Wednesday, I foresee an extended period of chilly, windy, snowy weather which may continue intermittently for 5 days or more. This period will see mostly cloudy, breezy conditions with a little below average temperatures (not brutally cold) and on-and-off measurable upslope mountain snows every day ( greater than 1 inch). While I do not anticipate any large single day storm snowfall amounts, totals for the 5-day period may be in the 10-to-15 inch range (as measured on Canaan Heights) with higher totals possible on the highest summits. I will keep you advised as mid-week draws nearer of if I see conditions changing. As always, stay tuned to your local National Weather Service public weather forecasts for Tucker County for more frequent updates on this winter weather situation. Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman Bob Leffler"

That's a lot of rain.



Surface should be nice, but base will take a net hit?



At least your wife's mug is a bit easier on the eyes.

It stopped already.




Chaga says 'bomber' base, HE MEANS BOMBER BASE!




True story.

Who is this imposter you posted about earlier...this "FEARLESS" Canaan weather dude?..Where was Fearless 6 days ago when I posted the Same stuff...I am taking off my shoes and I will beat his posted words with the soles....I had to step up my game to beat out this Chris Bailey Hypster..and now we have "Fearless"???!!!..
Like the gunslingin ole west days..always someone trying to take down the best...well..this Dude aint nothing but Fearless LIGHT...thats right..Light!...now let me get back to my shoe stompin..

PS..How ya like the nearly week advance notice(actually I saw this sytem 10 days out) on the frozen stuff ending by this aft/eve..then only snow till further notice?...booyaah!!....ok...im done..the end..