Me too!...4 runs in a row of the GFS wx mod shows some potential for the weekend of feb 8/9 for the Alpps of WV...if u dont see any more posts on this subject...disregard... posted from GW Florida...pls send blankets and beer!

The first I heard about it was yesterday.  I told a teacher 'welcome back' after being out for 2 weeks of snow days, and she said, we are gonna have more with a storm calling for 32". I was wondering how she would hear something so profound when I hadn't heard a thing. Anyway...... from this morning's email......  Bob Leffler is talking big rain producer... of course it's too early to really call.

"A little tweaking is needed to this weekend's forecast.  The major pattern change I have been advertising for days is tilting a little warmer through Saturday.  Therefore, I now see all light rain Saturday evening into Sunday morning (less than one-quarter inch), possibly ending as a brief period of snow flurries during Sunday with little or no accumulation.  Temperatures Saturday may make the 40's.

 

Another weak disturbance will pass to the southeast of Canaan after the cooler air has settled in on Monday, possibly producing some light snow, with up to one inch accumulation.  The much wetter, more significant storm I mentioned as possible in mid-week is now leaning strongly towards a big rain producer but that's still 4 days plus out.  Let's monitor that one and not hang our hats on any specific forecast yet as there are some question marks on the track.

 

Will be in touch!

 

Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman"

All I have read/seen indicates a major mid-Atlantic storm next weekend.  Models show 2 feet + potential.  Lots can change in 7+ days however.

The Colonel

I have heard three people today independently mention 12-18 inches for the Columbus area this Tuesday and Thursday.   

late sunday and mon storm snuck in...good...my next weekend storm seems to be trending a little west (wetter)...but the fcast still has it as of 2am sat morn.... Friday NightCloudy with snow. Low near 20F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.SaturdayLight snow during the morning will become a light mix of wintry precipitation during the afternoon. High 32F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 70%. 1 to 3 inches of snow and ice expected.Saturday NightCloudy with snow. Low around 25F. Winds S at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 80%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.SundaySnow during the morning will become lighter during the afternoon. High near 25F. Winds WSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 70%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches.Sunday NightSnow showers before midnight. Becoming partly cloudy later. Low 8F. Winds W at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 40%.Monday

Oh...tue to thur storm veered west too...rain to backside snow...the models giveth...the models taketh away...

I've been following this guy for 2 years and he's been pretty darn accurate.  He usually comes out with a final forecast 48 hrs out. 

This is for FEB 3

 

Ive posted on his blog a few times and told him to up his snow totals for WV and he has replied and it seems that he has adjusted...WV high country wasnt really in his focus zone...waiting for the next run of the Euro to see if it still keeps next weekends snow potential..canadien and american models have veered the storm west of the Alpps...(wetter till it gets mo betta

The storm for late sun into mon that kinda snuck into the pic has the potential to lay down a good dump if it can just progress slowly enough ...Wxrisk might have to ramp up the wv totals on next map....its all about the speed right now...velly intelesting..
(South and east better too...Snowshoe looks good)

Bob Leffler latest:

"This next upcoming storm is a tough call.  Canaan now appears that it will be near the rain-snow line.  Right now public forecasts call for 1-to-3 inches of rain-to-snow Monday out of this storm.  However, your Fearless Canaan Weatherman sees a similar scenario with light rain-changing-to-snow but much more snow....4-to-8 inches when all is said and done Monday evening.  If the light rain turns to snow Monday morning around daybreak as I now forsee, it will be a heavy, wet snow.  A small shift in the storm track could mean all rain so stay tuned and I will update you as more information becomes available Sunday evening.

The Tuesday/Wednesday storm looks right now to me to mainly a moderate rain producer (90 % chance) with some upslope snows on the tail end Wednesday but let's get through Monday before focusing on the next system.

Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman"

NWS sez 3-5" for Monday with change over to rain/freezey rain Wed. 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=lwx&CiTemplate=1&FcstType=text&MapType=0&MapType=3&site=lwx&CiTemplate=1&map.x=192&map.y=67#.Uu4rlvumMVA

I've been following him too. He makes good forecast most of the time and if he's wrong he admits it and tells you why. Just read his post on facebook, he's talking about a good possibility for a big storm this coming weekend (8-9). Bring it on!

tsk..tsk...ski..shame on u...guess u didnt read my post that started this thread two days ago?...im used to it...no worries..

Sorry fishnski! I have followed your weather post on DCSki. I live in the Shenandoah Valley so Wxrisk keeps me informed for my area. Haven't had much snow this year, hoping for a good dump next weekend!

 

Thx Tsk..Ive been posting wx stuff here at Dcski for 13 years..bfore all these wx models came out and I have consistently beat all NWS forecasts... it doesnt matter here...there is always someone or site that dc ski touts...understandable and no hard feelings...just that what bugs me is that they are all model chasers now...I dont care if they have an education in met...they just hide behind their credentials and wait for the next model run. Thats what I do...Wxrisk posted on the storm next weekend...which i posted about three days ago...then he posted that the model flipped...which I posted

about a day before(posting with ph sucks)...I or you could be one day ahead of these so called experts if you just took time to read the models...easy stuff and getting easier...as soon as I can get to a pc I can give some easy tips on how to figure out the wx models...please jump in anyone if you can point out some stuff (850 mb temps..540 line ect...)

Late Saturday through the weekend..and into mon + ... It's complex and no one knows exactly what will happen at this point; so don't waste your time or bother with the crazy things you'll hear. But it is a potent storm...NWS should latch on soon and then we can follow their guidance...
Its been 5 days now since the GFS model starting popping this storm up and has been trying to get a better handle on it since...

PS..now that i have said to be careful from what you hear..here is a quote from Chris Bailey of Kentucky weather..."The storm coming this weekend could run from the Gulf of Mexico to the New England. This has the look of being the biggest and baddest of the winter"

Not sure what they got in the Valley but we got a very heavy 8-10" here in Morgantown. Started with a light rain last night and turned to snow 6pm. Looks like things didn't turn to snow until early this morning in the Valley...

I miss Chris Bailey. Enjoyed reading his blog when he was with one of the WV news stations.

 

7springs is saying 9" from today's snow (2/3).  

 

Looks like tuseday / wednesday should get some decent snow to the north. 

Chris Bailey is now with a KY station, same blog, same great info, generally includes WV in maps etc..

Go to kyweathercenter.com

The Colonel

David wrote:

"Not sure what they got in the Valley but we got a very heavy 8-10" here in Morgantown. Started with a light rain last night and turned to snow 6pm. Looks like things didn't turn to snow until early this morning in the Valley"...
 

The land of Canaan is blessed with many snow making features but is cursed forever with the notorious "Warm Wedge"...Take the southern point of MD where it meets WV...draw a line wsw from there and another ssw and u will see where we get a warm push from deep south...go over the sods..and places like Hotsprings and u could have snow where its only raining or sleeting in the Valley...same happened with morgantown...add a little northern exposure to that and Voila!...there was a 5 inch advantage at wisp before it turned to snowin the valley at 6/630 am...

 

Any updated thoughts for this weekend?

I think this is funny

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35sfp9k5avI

wgo wrote:

Any updated thoughts for this weekend?

It's not looking that great,   The "big storm" isn't going to develop. It will stay as two smaller seperate systems (well that's what weather.com says).  

Fearless Weekend Weather Forecast

"I see a wintery weekend ahead for the Canaan and surrounding WV high country above 3,000 feet.  Clouds will increase Friday night with light occasional snow developing Saturday mid-morning and continuing on-and-off through Sunday.  The heaviest snowfall will occur Sunday. 

Highs will be in the low-twenties both days with lows both mornings in the upper teens.  I see 1-to-2 inches falling Saturday with an additional 2-to-4 inches Sunday for a weekend total of 3-to-6 inches of pure fluffy powder.  Winds should be light during the entire period.

There is still a small chance a more significant disturbance will develop, upping snowfall amounts.  I will of course advise you of any significant changes to my forecast.  As always, stay tuned to your local public National Weather Service forecasts for timely updates.

Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman"

ParkCrewDrew wrote:

wgo wrote:

Any updated thoughts for this weekend?

It's not looking that great,   The "big storm" isn't going to develop. It will stay as two smaller seperate systems (well that's what weather.com says).  

Ah, well. Maybe Massanutten on Monday if the kids are out of school (doesn't take much for schools to close in central Virginia)

scottyb wrote:

I think this is funny

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35sfp9k5avI

I know it has been a little while since I was on here, but decided to come on see what is going on.  Saw the whole site changed, but was able to "migrate" my account.

Anyway, having just got back from 6 days of skiing at Vail (just got back last night), THAT was friggan FUNNY!!!   In fact, the last two days, the back bowls were closed due to high winds (which really did suck as I spent nearly the entire day Wednesday back there and still was not done).

Anyway, seems this big storm did not materialize, which actually am glad as it would've been hell getting back home last night if it did.  Damn near got stuck in Vail as it was snowing big time (but did result in some sweet pow all last week).  However, things might get interesting about the middle of this week, though.

Anyway, back to good ol' Massanutten (been skiing there nearly every weekend since before Christmas).   I just might go up this weekend.

So fishnski what are you seeing for middle of the week?

I put more faith in the American gfs model than the Canadien gem model which has the mid week noreaster running up the coast close enough to give snow to the mountains(I just watch the western front Alpps)..looking for another snowy weekend coming up though!...hard to think snow right now at the Natures coast of Florida..70's..1.50 bloody Mary's...1.25 domestic drafts...9.95 all the fried fish fries n slaw u can eat....ill get my act together and head for the mountains soon!

hmmm.m....clearing some cobwebs out and after further review I see that the Nam and the Eoro models have the noreaster getting close enough...update after the mornings model runs....im betting no..we shall see! (the truth is usually in the middle)

This morns gfs run did swing the storm further east and closer to SS and Canaan but still just a scrape...might be good for Wintergreen/Nut...here is what NWS Charleston is saying.. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD IS THEN CONSIDERABLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN/UKMET WOULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM OVER THE REGION. GFS/SREF INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF HAS HAD A HABIT OF ADVERTISING THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM NUMEROUS TIMES IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...BUT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER ALWAYS BACKS OFF. GFS HAS HAD A MUCH BETTER TRACK RECORD WITH NOT SHOWING THE BIG ONE. IN ADDITION...THESE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLIDE SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST...AND HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST AS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION. JUST BE AWARE...THAT THE EXTREMES ARE POSSIBLE...AS IN MAJOR STORM...OR NO STORM.

GFS shifted west..not east like i posted...bloody Marys shifted my brain...

This doesn't have much to do with the current storm on the horizon, but an interesting tidbit for a lot of the snow we do get (but haven't been lately)

Apparently the lakes are frozen over so solid that we can forget about any lake-effect snows the rest of the season and have to count on only nor-easters. Lake Erie where we get our lake-effect snow from is 95% frozen over

 

http://www.wunderground.com/news/great-lakes-ice-cover-largest-century-20140207

Ur right Chaga...LE season pretty much over. From what I understand the lakes can still get some action going from friction with the wind but I cant see where that would amount to much...plus and even though lake Michigan has a ribbon of open water on it the lake is cold and the Arctic winds are becoming less cold intense as the winter slows down. BUT...we still have Clippers!....like a couple that could blow thru this weekend...wv Alpps...gulf..atlantic..lakes...and pacific energy with these clippers that if strong enough can pick up a little gulf moisture...and can leave with a shot of upslope. The stronger sun in late winter can also supply energy for instability...Snow Squalls!...

fishnski wrote:

Ur right Chaga...LE season pretty much over. From what I understand the lakes can still get some action going from friction with the wind but I cant see where that would amount to much...plus and even though lake Michigan has a ribbon of open water on it the lake is cold and the Arctic winds are becoming less cold intense as the winter slows down. BUT...we still have Clippers!....like a couple that could blow thru this weekend...wv Alpps...gulf..atlantic..lakes...and pacific energy with these clippers that if strong enough can pick up a little gulf moisture...and can leave with a shot of upslope. The stronger sun in late winter can also supply energy for instability...Snow Squalls!..

 

Dumb question. Will the lakes melt a bit by say mid-March and will LE increase from then until the snowmobile races and zipline specials?

 

End of season snowmobile races?...thats right..they are having them..LE season over unless we have a huge volcanic eruption or "nuclear winter'..in a few months.. Not enough snow out of this last storm.....wishing for a snowy weekend?....ya got it...enjoy it bcuz a feb thaw is coming..just my luck with my sched..

why cant u space your posts correctly with a smart ph?...impossible to edit if needed...dcski app?

wishing for a snowy weekend?”¦.ya got it”¦enjoy it bcuz a feb thaw is coming..just my luck with my sched..

 

Ya, looks like a warmup mid of next week through the weekend. Not the best for the Mid A Gathering, but this weekend will rock out. Missed today due to illness but I'll be 100 percent for the weekend.

fishnski wrote:

..LE season over unless we have a huge volcanic eruption or "nuclear winter'..in a few months.. Not enough snow out of this last storm.....wishing for a snowy weekend?....ya got it...enjoy it bcuz a feb thaw is coming..

 

SUGIHWARAS, Indonesia -- A powerful volcanic eruption on Indonesia's most populous island blasted ash and debris 18 kilometres into the air Friday



Hmmmmmmmm.............

 

JohnL wrote:

wishing for a snowy weekend?”¦.ya got it”¦enjoy it bcuz a feb thaw is coming..just my luck with my sched..

 

Ya, looks like a warmup mid of next week through the weekend. Not the best for the Mid A Gathering, but this weekend will rock out. Missed today due to illness but I'll be 100 percent for the weekend.

Toyed with the idea of driving out to TL for a day trip on Friday but opted to stay closer to home with the family. Gotta build up those ski dad points. I'll be at TL next weekend with the family dealing with the warmup and maybe a solo day trip in early March if we get another shot of cold and snow.

fishnski wrote:

Ur right Chaga...LE season pretty much over. From what I understand the lakes can still get some action going from friction with the wind but I cant see where that would amount to much...plus and even though lake Michigan has a ribbon of open water on it the lake is cold and the Arctic winds are becoming less cold intense as the winter slows down. BUT...we still have Clippers!....like a couple that could blow thru this weekend...wv Alpps...gulf..atlantic..lakes...and pacific energy with these clippers that if strong enough can pick up a little gulf moisture...and can leave with a shot of upslope. The stronger sun in late winter can also supply energy for instability...Snow Squalls!...

 


http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx

You can clearly see snow bands streaming off of both Lake Michigan and Erie..Erie completely frozen over and Michigan almost and they still produce Lake effect.........proof in the pudding!.....Link might not work or update itsself...caveman a postin...

fishnski wrote:


http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx

You can clearly see snow bands streaming off of both Lake Michigan and Erie..Erie completely frozen over and Michigan almost and they still produce Lake effect.........proof in the pudding!.....Link might not work or update itsself...caveman a postin...

 

Yep, its thar.

 

Tline skied great yesterday.  Blue skies, soft snow, powder, 100% open, no crust, and none of us got our tickets clipped!  :)

7springs got ~18" over the past 3 days.  Conditions were fantastic!   Probally the best weekend of the year (not just for 7springs...most Mid Alantic resorts).