Per NWS, looks like rain for Canaan Valley Sat nite - Mon. (Even for elevations higher than Davis.) Hope precip amounts turn out to be not too large.

Hope on the horizon after that?

Per Chris Bailey:

I wonder if we can convince Chris Bailey to be the official DCSKI weather person. He has a good approach.

However, he puts the most faith in the European model, which would seem odd. How can they predict our weather better than we do? Go figure.

It looks like we could have a good Christmas ski seaon here in the east. Merry Christmas.

I'm pretty certain this is LangleySkier:

http://www.opensnow.com/dailysnow/midatlantic



Need to add this to the weather sites I regularly track.

Yeah, it's Langley.

OpenSnow is a great resource for all of the major ski regions.

Crap! Doing a quick check of wx sites, looks like even Northern VT could get some of the "r" word Sun - Wed. Hope that changes.

The whole East Coast needs snow making weather and snow!

Best news for the Mid Atlantic is that the 6-14 day outlook calls for cooler than normal temps.

Hmmm..didn't know that this thread existed..just posted some weather stuff but would have posted here if i had known..cant stand someone trying to steal news with their own copycat thread

As far as "The friendly Weather Dude"...Im becoming less and less impressed with him...he is only as good as the latest model run..nothing special there...

Welcome to the thread.

My main hope is that WV Alpps don't get too much base-eating rain before tues/wed. I'd like to have the chance to ski White Lightning next weekend.

Why thank you there Johnny!...U know..if you moved south we could call you Johnny Reb!

I'm going to go out on a snowy limb here and predict mon x-mass eve to b a very sweet day to be skiing on the western front...the winds will b down and the snow will b on the ground...then..whats next?...

Per Chris Bailey:
[/quote]01

Mr Bailey has been hyping a major shift to winter between the 7th and 14th of this month since T-Giving...he did the same thing last year...its the 16th today and I'm heading to a pier to do some fishing..

Like Snowsmith Observed..he favors the Euro model and poo paws the GFS but it seems that the GFS has been more grounded in reality than the Euro lately...here is a dose of reality vs weatherman hype...

Pacific air continues to rapidly race its way across the southern 1/3 of the US and this keeps us in what we call a progressive pattern, which is more of the same mild for a few days then wet, then cold for a few days then repeat the cycle. This means our late week cold shot will also ease up and moderate as we head towards Christmas.

Now..up in the high country if we can get some of that moisture to slide up far enough from the south after the cold shot this weekend and there is enough cold air in place we could see a little snow around x-mass..give or take
...OK ..BS on that...Lets just take this f-cast 1 week at a time..Let MR Bailey Hype X-mass!..

things arent looking good. I remember last year starting out pretty ok even with crummy weather for HV as they were able to make a nice snow with their guns. Sure things got off slowly, and rain/warm temps diminished things, but the season went through pretty ok.

This year, it's like things just keep getting warmer and warmer, and now we are at the point that we can't keep snow on the hills. If it progresses like this, we will likely see barren hills with 2' dumpings here and there of wet snow.

Crazy weather? 2012? Global Warming? La suck0?

dont know. dont care. I just want to be on a lift somewhere right now chewing gum, rather than sitting here wondering if I'll find guidance or hope by reading here or there.

Accuweather - the most reliable site for our area, shows temps well above average will continue with only a few days at or below normal.

We need consistent NORMAL temps and a few snowfalls. SNow? What's snow?

Can you imagine if last weekend was snow lol?

I'm starting to buy into this climate change garbage now. Not sure about global warming but, being over 40 I can say that I notice a difference in our weather.

Is there a place to get historic weather data for say, the last 20 years for an area ,...for each day...not just the month.

This seems to say that for the next 30 years, a short stint in time for the earth but pretty much the end of East Coast skiing. http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/east/2012/12/14/274085.htm

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/279584461467820032/photo/1
-.28 c anomaly
I guess if GW continues we will b seeing freeze warnings for the Mango groves in florida!

There is a growing # of folks warning of another ice age..remember that back in the 70's The ice age was the big threat.

We will just bitch..then it will get cold and we will switch..

As u can see by the above link..The world is actually F-casted to b below normal for the next 8 days...
GW might b a a little factor right now..Enhanced by mans Heat Islands.ect....but I think the Pattern we have to deal with is more important than anything..
Here r the 4 setups that we on the east coast should observe...only the NAO is trending favorable for us right now...1 out of 4...

North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) [(35-45N, 70W-10W) - (55-70N, 70W-10W)]
o NAO Composite Positive Phase Map
Western Pacific Oscillation(WPO) [(25-40N, 140E-150W) - (50-70N, 140E-150W)]
o WPO Composite Positive Phase Map
Pacific North America Pattern (PNA) [(15-25N, 180-140W)-(40-50N, 180-140W)+(45-60N, 125W-105W)-(25-35N, 90W-70W)]
o PNA Composite Positive Phase Map
Eastern Pacific Oscillation(EPO) [(20-35N, 160W-125W) - (55-65N, 160W-125W)]
o EPO Composite Positive Phase Map

12 hours of raining tomorrow. I guess I'll brush up on my plumbing skills. Waste some time in Lowes. Buy xmas gifts and wrap them. Uhhhhh wax our skis uhhhhh....

and look at many years of data from the weatherunderground's historic day to day temps/precip to determine what type of year we are going to have that way...

looking back on the year of the big snows, we had a crappy Dec apparently. Shrug.

Yes. And the west had been going off especially in the Northern Rockies.

Until they started getting nuthin' but wind, and most of that nice Jackson Hole snow wound up in - nebraska. I'm still kicking myself for not having had my SL skis.

ok , it's official. I'm depressed. It's POURING rain 45 mins west of 7S and HV where I live.

My Christmas lights wont even turn out. Too much water causing a ground fault. I have to reroute and exclude some things to get it to 80% of my display.

day 1 of vacation. Plumbing done. Planned daughters bday party. Worked a bit. Now what? Where's the snow!?

Utah, Wyoming, Montana, Oregon, Washington State, British Columbia.

Next question?

FUGLY weather here right now. Haven't seen this much hard/constant rain for a while.

Is this weather miserable or what. What a source of frustration. If anyone is young and not an old fart like me, pack up your stuff and move out of here....go west young man. I think we have had 2 days of sun over the past two weeks. Utah has over 250 days of sunshine a year. And they still get plenty of snow to boot.

OK Mr. Fish,

I accidentally drank the same stuff that Sincraft did.

For Canaan Valley, are things looking as bad (for skiing) as I think they might be for Thursday? Current T-Line webcam shows solid base in front of the deck, but what you can see of the WL coverage is starting to look shaky. Thursday could kill it. I'm wondering if T-Line can get WL open (lift served) before Xmas day.

If the weather does not change soon and stay that way.........

well let me just say that you and Sincraft have not drunken enough stuff yet, keep drinkin ............

61 degrees! Just opened the windows to air out the house. I'll have the freshest house in VA by spring. .

weather forecasting is an oxymoron much like military intelligence.

I'm surprised no one has started talking of Friday-Sunday's cold front.

Prolly cuz it will be too little, too late to open up any new trails for this weekend (beyond beginner areas.) Thursday's rain could really do some more significant damage to existing (or non-existing bases.)

But ~Xmas day (or day after), additional trails and areas should be opening. But that is a crappy late date to either open or get more than a few trails open.

"Will see a preview tue into wed...then BAM! fri/sat and into sun...WV Alpps style!...stay tuned.."...WV Alpps weather alert thread..

I brought that up 3 days ago to help boost moral..

Well...we got somewhat of a preview today..Snowshoe turned white earlier on (an inch or so?) and im seeing some white down at lift level in CV now.
Not much but at least its not melting today!

Now...Bring a very strong front thru early thur eve..dropping temps fast and staying cold enough for snow making almost till xmas with nat snow falling thru sat and maybe lingering into early sun..add the snow leftover + guns blazing and..if you believe the latest GFS model,..a foot++ of mother natures finest??!..and we should see some decent skiing by sun at least...I posted earlier that I thought Mon would b a very sweet day to be skiing on the western front..
Think what a wisp or SS could pull off with those cards...

PS..Latest NWS is saying guidence is telling them 4 to 6..but are saying that with further study 8 inches could fall in NE WV mtns...BRING IT!

Right now at 4000' on the White lightning slope its 26 degrees..but with a high dew point of 26 and the humidity at 98%. Even with the higher dew pt and humidity I'm thinking they could still blow snow...will they?...Make it high...push it down...Davids law of levativity...

31 at base..

Should I be concerned driving to Snowshoe this Friday?

Sounds like things could be a little sloppy. Possibly some mixed snow/rain/ice conditions. As always, take your time and you should be fine.

Should I be concerned driving to Ontario this Friday?

Here's a video from Brad Panovich and his forecast this weekend.

Weekend Forecast Video.

Yes, cuz I've seen you drive.

Johnny Reb says Mr. Fish needs to be listened to about the weather in the WV Alpps.

First, some base-eating (or grass watering) rain on Thursday.

Chris Bailey is predicting a lot more back-end snow than I thought, plus more to come on Saturday. Should be very windy Friday and Saturday. Valley will look like Winter this weekend, but I don't think many trails will be open on Sat/Sun. Round-the-clock snow making window from Friday to at least Xmas day for the Valley?

I assume Wisp and Blowshoe will be in the same boat.

Per Sincraft, Seven Springs has sucked, will suck this weekend, and will continue to suck for the rest of the winter until he decides to move... Hidden Valley will taunt him.

Mr. Fish, what have ya heard about this ~Xmas day storm?

Not looking so great for the Snowtime areas. Snowmaking windows at night? Any of those regulars want to chirp in?

Mad River Glen has been getting some non-snow along with snow, will get some rain (hopefully not enough to kill the base), and then some snow also. Not the best Xmas week, but at least trending in the right direction. (But I guess that is setting the bar low.)

Ah the driving! Hell on the highway = Heaven on the hill. Take it easy everyone. A couple hours longer on the road to be safe is nothing out of a lifetime.

We'll be heading to VT to have Christmas with daughter and family. Things are looking up there and I hope to get in a couple days at Mad River. Last year they had not opened at this time. I'll leave the skins at home. Shareholders over 70 ski free every day of the year. I will do a triangular trip, stopping to visit my sister in Rochester, NY on the way home. When they have snow I go XC at Mendon Ponds, a beautiful spot.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!

Ok, I don'r expect t-line to have anything open from the top until the day after christmas. But whan they do expect salamander, WL, OTW, and maybe a few days later winterset, lower heaven. The snowmaking window, although it opens and shuts a few times will allow them to open a good bit over the next two weeks.
The real question will be can the snotime resorts get much open before they loose their A$$ for a second holiday period in a row.

Hope you have snow when you hit Rochester. I used to work right across the road from Mendon Ponds Park and spent tons of time there year around - great place. If snow you can always wander down the road to Bristol for some man made.

Hey! That Subaru stayed on the road, on average.

That's a very loose definition of road. Like you see on a Subie commercial.

He and jonjon are good long range callers. Short term is more fun. I bet we get barely any rain before snow. The predicted highs are forecasted from pittsburg or charleston and should never be banked on up in the high country. Pretty sure it stayed in lower 30s all day. I think davis/thomas got more rain than in the valley the past few days also, and yesterday most of it was in the form of snow. I wouldn't be surprised if it starts as snow and stays that way. At least above 3000'

Was trying to hide from anything weather related and just head up to the mtns and see my 1st snow this year...thanks for busting my bubble Kwill on the fact that u think WL wont b open from the top ..

Thanku Mr. REBL for ur post..at 1st I figured u were puking mtn dew thru ur nose when u made it..Hardly ever hear any kudos any of my weather stuff & was surprised that u were one of the 1st..
Then Chaga attempts one and then DISSES this Beer infested Varmit big time!..Not good short term??!..How many times have I predicted the snowfall to the inch..or within 2 inches when everybody else has a 6 inch spread fcast?...How bout my faze of babe ruth or muhammed Ali fcasting when I was predicted the exact time and getting within 5 to 15 min of when the snow began..I beg ur pardon sir Whitegrasshopper!...OK jus playin..its all good..

But seriously chaga..Ur right..I was really surprised to see the aft temp up there yest..and even this morn its still below freezing above 3800'..The Magic of Canaan!...But..We wont escape the warm push slug of air and rain working up to the main front which looks to b coming in a little later than when I last cked the models. Im seeing a wedge of cooler air just to the north of canaan but it will get shoved further north but then the front rolls thru a little later than when the models were saying a couple of days ago..looks like the changeover to snow wont b till late eve..midnite give or take..Unless u and the magic land can pull off another upset!!!
Always rooting for an upset fcast up at the land of Canaan...Long live the WV Alpps..lets get this winter started white! (winter begins on the 21st)

From a note to a friend,


Garrett County is expecting 8" to 14" over the next day or so.

That would be nice but NWS doesn't think so. Even if it did the ground is very warm.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php...Field2=-79.4665

The NW is getting hammered again, including MT and interior BC.


Then there is this,

Well I'll be . . .

Another nws page,

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.ph...r+Storm+Warning

I've never known them to be so at odds with themselves. I guess we wait and see.

Wow, Denis. Maybe, finally ....

Thanks for posting the links.

Woody

The 8-14" is what they are calling for thru Saturday evening. The point and click forecast does not have amounts for Friday Night and Saturday, so I don't believe they are conflicting.

NWS Charleston calling for up to 18" above 3000'!!!!

jonjon1 must've just got internet in the new mancave?

definitely strong wind gusts all morning, but coming from the south east which usually isn't a great sign in the winter. Temps in low 30's and ground semi-frozen. When the flags are blowing to the left on the WG webcam we will have the north westerly flow back we want!

Lookin' mighty fine on Timberline's WebCam

not snowing here. look at the radar!

Check out NY Ski Blog Forums - Storm Speculation 12/28/12 Thread (Maybe more like 12/27 for the storm.)

Canaan Valley, Wisp, SS/HV, maybe even the Knob, Elk? and the Catskills in a sweet spot.

Any word on the lack of recent reports by Langleyskier on Open Snow? Last forecast was January 3rd (but weather has been meh since then for skiing.)

wtf?

60 degrees and rain x2 days!

Next 24hrs: 60+ degrees, rain, thunder, lightning, flash floods, wind advisory, sub-freezing temps, sleet, snow, AND ice.

Am I the only one a bit disturbed by this?

...I am a bit disturbed, but don't know if I can blame it on weather...

Your move, Mr. Fish.

Hey RebL..C Bailey is becoming the King of hype..he has used this big storm Canadien model scenerio many times b4..Maybe I should say the canadien is the king of hype..guess it will get lucky sooner or later..

I put out a big storm watch out very early sat morn (am 2-9-13) for this comings sat/sun but the next day I posted this..
2-10-13 AM
"Looks like the storm tracks are shifting a little south and east..still snow for wed but maybe less snow and more blow..and cold for this coming weekend..Models are acting like our govt"

The 2 best models r the Euro and the GFS..if you can get the 2 to agree..its on!..until then..its just hype..lets just b happy with another carpet bombing raid this wed from M nature!..

Looking like an awesome day on mon pres day then there is a system thats been on the radar for tuesday aft..been showing up ever since I posted on sat morn..that one has started to trend up the west side of the mountains so that means maybe a start to wet then to snow..needing a bowlers body language push to get it back in line!

PS..believe me..I love to read any hype and pray for it to happen..CB will get lucky one time..Im still hoping it does but my money is still in my pocket..See ya on the slopes mon/tue..if we can get the tue/wed storm to cooperate!

fish, your cousin just wrote this for accu:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/building-a-pipeline-of-storms/5872097

They didnt just post that..they posted that piece at 10 am last saturday..right after they read my post here at DCKI at 626 am..

"Got more movin in for wed...then got a big storm watch for sat/sun presidents weekend(u heard it here 1st).. I got up early to see this mornings run b4 posting this but after 5 consistent runs of the GFS model it seems promising...be looking out for your front line reports Tucker"

Anyway..I quit reading accuweather posts back in nov...+ that dude aint my cousin..my cousin at accuweather is named Alex Snosnowski..look him up!

Mr. Fish, lots of warm air this Fri/Sat with the incoming storm. Too warm for body english to keep the bowling ball outta the gutter? Finish with some snow?

NWS points not looking great. (Whitmer and Davis and Blue Knob.)

OpenSnow:


Chris Bailey:

So Mr. Fish and other weather prognosticators, how's it looking for the theoretical time frame starting middle of next week? Say March 6 to March 13?

Hey J-reb-L Skiah..1st off..nice friggin trip u got planned..Im disturbed...
Yeh..I havnt cked anything model or weather wise other than satellite n radar loops in 3 days since I made my decision to head up to the valley for a few days for my last stand till next year..I quit watching weather stuff once I commit to a trip...dont want to see anything neg.
I do ck stuff like how the northern Hem is doing cold wise and judging by the.. unseen in many years.. well below temps up at the Arctic..
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png
Im encouraged by the amount of cold to draw on if we can pull it down..
Ck out the arctic ice...zooma zoom zoom..up and away...Mother nature is investing in our nordic future!
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png

It looks good...Just say NO to GW...I think my arguments in the past will prove right in the future..jus sayin...

I've been enjoying following this guy on facebook: http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk

He definitely has a tendency to hype storms, but interesting nonetheless.

All 1.21 Gigawhats of them?

Could b Jigga-watts..but if ya get zapped by 1.21 of em and get zapped back to the future you could be landing smack dab in a Ice age!

Saw on Canaan Valley 's FB page that they are expecting up to 18 inches of snow from now to Sunday. Where did they get the info??

Also, wondering what do you guys -- weather experts -- think about the following weekend (March 9-10)? Thinking about booking a place in the valley..

pukin right now

You drank more of that ULLR + Vya cocktail, didntcha?

Just need to figger where the trip will be... Could be real good in a lot of places judging by the weather.

Better yet, finish March and the season with 9 days in Montana.

With a Snowy Luau before that. Snow or corn, it dun't matter cuz it will be all good.

March - in like a lion and out like a lion!

Starting with a Purple Powder Alert tomorrow...

East Coast monster Storm next week?
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/midatlantic-snowstorm-potentia/7088979

"There may be similarities to a storm which affected much of the same area around March 6, 1962."

How about some of you old farts tell me what it was like that day?? I was -24 years old.

Sounds like it could be a good one. At one point they use the tern 'atmospheric bomb'....

last week when I was making a decision "weather" or not to bolt for the mtns one of my hopes was for this storm u all are posting about to catch me on the tail end of my stay...I wanted to go out with a nice snowfall to remember winter with.
It looked a week ago that it might just make it to canaan by early eve tue..was hoping for a romantic dinner(Beer session)..the models had it brushing the valley as it passed to the south and then they had it head a little up but then out to sea...I havnt read any models for 4 or so days now so I dont really know whats up...The last time I left the Valley it was a friggin blizzard from the high country down to the super hiway low country...MESSY!!!

Anyhoot...
"How about some of you old farts tell me what it was like that day?? I was -24 years old.

Sounds like it could be a good one. At one point they use the tern 'atmospheric bomb'...."quote from David "little Fart"

Tern must b some sort of WV talk..but the Atmospheric Bomb is universal language for what comes out of young and old folks at times...aint just an old thang shorty..bet ur ole lady knows better!

Looking more promising.

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/11349_494469270600336_1310373143_n.jpg

From capital weather gang, they mentioned that the biggest snowfall from this storm (now dubbed Snowquester!) will probably be around Charlottesville area. What about WV highlands? Thoughts?

WV Highlands will get snow, how much is anyone's guess. Sweet spots for big storms like this are difficult to predict. (My armchair quarterbacking.)

Snow won't be nearly as good as the snow this past weekend. Snow this weekend was absolutely light blower fluff. Snow from this storm will be much wetter, heavier and likely wind affected. But I'll take it.

Per Accuweeather ooks like WV Alps will be the place to be Wed-Thurs with possibility of over 12". Up to 6" in Laurel Highlands.

It will be a good place to be as long as it doesn't take out the power for a week around here like Sandy did....imagine all the lift junkies just looking at all the snow again....

Will be in the valley by Thursday. Gotta get some things taken care of like getting my taxes together and cleaning up the house. Haven't been at home for a day off since the season began.

Some of us lift junkies are better prepared since Sandy.

I suppose acquiring an AT setup would be the trick for making sure I am ready for a Sandy/Snowquester type event. I could learn to telemark, however I figure I better truly master downhill skiing before I learn an entirely new discipline. Unfortunately AT setups aren't cheap.

Back to the weather, I am waiting on the OPM message hopefully closing the government tomorrow and maybe Thursday if I am truly lucky. Trying to figure out whether I want to take the drive on messy roads out to the valley, or stick somewhere a little easier to get to like Massanutten or Whitetail, particularly if I have to work.

they have Thursday and Friday to clear the roads. usually, it should not be a problem?

From the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow page:

I opted for a new set of alpine skis with Atomic Tracker (similar to Marker Dukes) bindings. Burly, but gets me up the main slopes and some side country (with a set of skins.) Too heavy/bulky to do any touring with them. Something to consider when buying your next set of skis/bindings.

Link to page Abe quoted:

http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/midatlantic

FYI, that's Langleyskier on DCSki.

Wonder how heavy and wind-affected the snow will be at the elevations of Canaan Valley and WTG/Massanutten? Sounds like lower-elevation places like Leesburg, Warrenton, etc. will get pretty heavy snow.

And here's hoping we don't lose power.

A CNN crew has arrived here in Winchester, Virginia to film it all. Here's hoping that we don't disappoint.



Woody

Bet Canaan wont be that wet...after the 1st couple of inches.

..........................and here I sit in the Laurel Highlands bubble. Only to get lake effect snow. We never get any 'nice' snowfalls worth looking forward to like the folks to the north, south and east get. Sigh...

They SAY 5-8 inches locally and more in the mountains. I'm looking at the radar and the temperatures outside, and say hogwash once again.

We will likely see all that good stuff smooshed to crud, topped with a light dusting to make us feel better about everyone else getting the snow.

Lets hope we get some, and it's not soaking wet.

7S had to get bombed. We had about 5" (by 6 AM) at my house and I'm 70 miles W / NW of 7S.

Sincraft - you missed your Prozac again. Last weekend at HV, it snowed the entire weekend.Yes, Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Where was Sincraft? We probaly received a foot. You need to get out of your house and experience this fine year we are having.

Thanks for the OpenSnow shout out! Agree fish that for Canaan area and probably Wintergreen the snow wont be too wet at all (22 at wintergreen per my last weatherbug check). For local areas, the snow to water ratios will probably end up somewhere around 10:1 while the mountains hit 12:1 and DC sits at 7:1.

Totals so far are pretty sick out west and Whitetail's webcam is even looking nice. I think the valley could easily walk out with 20 inches if the snow keeps going up there. Anyone skiing this weekend??

Also - how about a 40 inch base of NATURAL snow in WV!Past two weeks have been absolutely amazing for building base (decent snowcover already, covered by .5 inches of freezing rain, covered by 15 inches of light powder covered by 15-20 inches of dense snow). Crazy amazing for this time of year - just hope we can avoid a warm rainstorm (could be a mess).

Careful there...it seems there is a fine line on this forum when it comes to calling someone out and when you are attacking someone. Just sayin' (:^O)>>>

Just because the storm is wet and nasty around the DC area doesn't mean the mountains aren't getting blasted as you type! Think we will all be pleasantly surprised by totals for the resorts when they come in this evening or tomorrow AM.

Just a light dusting reported @ Snowshoe ..... NOT!

The snow will get drier as the storm moves through -- my models for WTG show 12:1 during the day today, moving towards 20:1 this evening. Sadly, that 20:1 period happens as the storm tapers off, so it won't amount to much. Still, even 12:1 is remarkably dry snow for WTG -- they rarely get past 5:1.

Whitegrass barely gets past 5:1???? The snow last week had to be 20:1 and most upslope events feature amazingly dry snow.

Or are you referring to wintergreen???? -- their snow is often dense but 5:1 is basically slush.

No seriousness intended...sorry if misinterpreted. It was meant to poke a little fun. Not meant to be insulting.

ahh... figured that but assumed there would be some remark following

Gotta love the whitegrass ratios

WTG = Wintergreen, always has.

The Euro model won this battle over the American Nam and GFS..the GFS had a handle on this storm way back but then the yankee's got excited and tried to bring the storm up the coast...its slowly spinning out to sea..

Id say that even though west of the blue ridge foothills where there were hefty snow amounts...20+ at places like Massunuttun...the north fork ridge with over 2 feet at judy's pass where folks like me have to cross to get to the Valley...and I bet a few more inches than Canaan valley on the very east side of the sods...

It was really a bust..the weather channel hype machine for example got embarrassed with what fell closer in and around DC..NWS had much more amounts as well..
The storm just seemed to lose its power and didn't bring down enough cold air for the lower elevations..

Anyhoot..thats my 2 cents worth

Yeah we got no more than 3" (~10 predicted) of wet slushy snow that was practically all melted by 5p.

Complete bust for DC area with the temperature profiles... we assumed the lower levels would cool but that just didn't happen. Overall precipitation (water) forecasts by the models were good as was proved by the snow totals out in the high country. Sad sad storm to watch in DC.

That said... I booked a room at the Canaan Valley Inn for 3 buddies and I on Saturday to take advantage of the crazy amazing spring skiing. Cant wait

Anything but spring skiing here in the Valley today. It 'twas deep.

Spring Skiing starts tomorrow

... just wish I was there today

Hazardous weather outlook for CV:


Hmm... looks like Thursday could be another decent powder day! Not to mention there are indications of another nor'easter next week. Still pretty far out, but who knows!

Wednesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -13. Blustery, with a northwest wind 21 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

MMmmmmmmmmm....Spring....

Not bad for mid-March! The webcams show it's dumping pretty good in CV right now...

Blower tomorrow??

WOW!

March madness...Full out puking to sun..and then to full out puking...
What perplexes me is how at 23 degrees does the picnic tables at timberline stay snow free during these Snow bursts...is the strong March sun that is fueling these Squalls also keeping the tops of the tables wet even with those cool temps? (observed from the TL Cam)

PS...18 degrees at 3800' at 7pm....I see you posted the potential Neaster from our Hype buddy C Bailey Abe..Wuzzz uppp?...

I was wondering the same thing... Fred is claiming tline got 6" on their facebook page...

Unfortunately, it looks like the hype for the big storm next week is already dying out, and they're calling for rain starting Friday night, ugh!

Wuz just bustin ur bubbles Abe..I still ck out mr Bailey but I trust And then verify!..
U seem like a smart dude..We r in the age of Information..only the lazy have someone else tell them what the deal is..anyone can ck the models..No Problem...once you get the hang of it..Hasta la vista Weather Dude!!..+ you can centralize your F-Cast..

PS..I dont hardly watch Radar for the Alpps anymore..I Ck out the Sat obs...watch for Light to darker blues/Then darker to green.. for heavier snows..
http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/sat/sat.php?sat=east&url=../imgs/ir2_east_cur.gif

So what's the call for Saturday? 70% chance of rain according to weather channel.

What really matters is what Andy is saying...

...so what's Andy saying???

Ever since andy posted this 6 days ago on the "Thumbs up" thread...

"then keep your fingers crossed for another clipper type later on Saturday."...

I have been curled up in a fetal position sucking on my thumb hoping no one would ask me..or need to ask me about the weather...

Its going to be real close as far as the rain/snow line...need some of those Luau drums pounding out some canaan magic...waiting for the next GFS run and hoping for a slight correction and an edging of the snow line closer in..its edged a little closer since yest aft....Drum roll PLEASE!!!....suck..suck...suck..

So rain tomorrow eh?

Looking at the NOAA guesscast, probably. Ya know, this will be the first rain on a weekend this year at t-line. It's been like skiing Utah most others. Maybe we get lucky and it stays mature precipitation instead of the wet pre-mature stuff. Kinda hard to say. Guess we'll see what it's doing in the AM.

I hate pre-mature wet stuff.

Geeze...this is a family site ..right?...

Winter aint over yet...a very cold second half to March..and prob into early april...Brrrrrr...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BFdC4GxCEAA4yXn.jpg:large

http://wxcaster.com/legends/TotalSnowFall_Legend.png(dont know why it wont show but it has the spine of the Alpps getting 16 inches or so for the next 5 days)(GFS Model)

Maybe not "Gone fishin"..yet..
Oh..I live down in the SE...I can fish and go skiing..
Multi taskin Fishnski!..

PS...looks like we are going over 200 inches this year up at Canaan..

Winter Storm Watch for the Shenandoah Valley Sunday night... up to 6" above 1500'... too bad the nut closes tomorrow!

I wonder what Canaan will squeeze out of this storm, any insight fishnski?

Yeah, I was sorry to read on their website that the nut is closing tomorrow. Off work Monday so I was thinking about checking it out after hearing the weather forecast. Guess not.

I was also hoping to get out to Mnut for an afternoon this upcoming week so I was sorry to see that 3/17 is their last day. I even called and asked if they would have any objection to someone hiking for turns and was told pretty clearly that this is a no-no.

The nut wasnt in the bullseye anyway.

you know when you are heading up to the 1st mtn pass from Harrisonburg Abe...the WV/Virginia boarder?...have you..Im sure you have..looked to the left before you hit the top and scoped out the lake below and those 4000+ tops around it?..
.Thats where you can see a 6/8 inch total...
There is a ridgeline that tops out at 4300' and then there is high knob at about 4100' with potential 1200 to 1500 vert drops...I have always felt that is Virginia's best ski area as I feel that in WV it is the north bowl and the NW side of MPC.
When Snowshoe is getting 8 inches that area would get 2 or 3 while wintergreen or the nut might get a skiff or so..
The road along the Base and around the Lake is called Skidmore... SKIDMORE Ski area Va!!!!..We aint Kiddin..u can get more skiddin up at SKIDMORE!...Dont be a NUT...

Anyway..Trying to figure out Weather in March is harder than most months..you get these boundary layers that waver north and south..no real pushes of cold air to nail something down ect..battles of old man winter and the Margarita man....you can hear the frustrations from the mets when reading the f-cast discussions...

With that said I think SS and lake Skidmore will get a couple more inches than Canaan..moisture training a little south...Rain/snow for the next few days..was hoping for a bigger system that was popping up on the GFS for next sunday but that is a long shot...

Today Snow likely, mainly after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Above is the latest F-cast for SS...well...its snowing pretty good up there now...915am
Canaan should be seeing some soon as well...

Looks like heavy fog in the Valley right now...

Here's an interesting one:




**Not sure why that showed up so small. Blue is heavy snow (3-6'') changing to rain on Wednesday afternoon. Light purple in heavy snow (6-12'') through the afternoon, possibly mixing with some rain later.


And the pretty pink all snow, sometimes 1-3" per hour. Atleast 9" total, up to 18" altogether and 24" locally in some places.

Picnic tables turning white on the TL Cam..

Im heading out for some Kayaking...In some Pre Mature wet stuff...

Been snowing all day at Mnut, with the temp on the mountain holding at 32. Looks like rain in the valley around the mountain.

Snowshoe cam showing good snow all day where as TL cam ...not so much....as I posted...
I talked of a longshot snow for next weekend and I just noticed NWS putting a snow mention out...

"Saturday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%."

Just looking at the nut's webcam and I checked out the snow conditions. They've changed their last day to tomorrow. Guess I'll get a few more runs in after all.

Hmm . . . Mnut says only opening 3 lifts on March 18. Wonder which lifts get left off?

Massanutten snow page as of Sun evening:
"Winter Storm Watch in effect for tonight. We will operate 3 lifts servicing 11 trails for our final day on Monday, March 18th 9am-4:30pm."

So Mnut didn't run the J-bar for the big terrain park or Lift 3 that serves the little terrain park and Geronimo. Got 4 inches of snow overnight.

Wintergreen decided to open today too instead of being closed M-F. Said they wouldn't groom the Highlands. They have one more weekend for sure since the pond skim festivities were move to March 23-24.

Whitetail did the same thing this past weekend, scratched one beginner lift and the terrain park lift. At this point in the season, I would rather have the place open with cost cutting measures than no skiing at all.

I think the resorts deserve some applause this year for trying to keep the season going a little longer with some appropriate budget considerations (limited lifts, no weekdays, etc.)

I've actually done a fair bit of mountain biking / hiking around that area... definitely some skiable terrain in that area! Back in the winter of 2010 when we had our big snows, a bunch of folks did some big backcountry tours through there...

My new favorite weather hypester is already raving about a storm next week:
http://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/...501221046591825

Only time will tell!

Who's skiing this week?

Judgeshred
Welcome to DCSki. Tell us a little about yourself.
The Colonel

Ive cked his site out off and on over the years..I haven't seen his Facebook Blog..Interesting..(Wxrisk post by Abe)

A few days ago I saw the 1st signs of something up on the GFS Model...Seems like there is (or was) one storm that will pass to our south then out to sea with another following on its heels that will have the two low scenario..sort of like a double yolk egg.. where they eventually get together and do some damage...happens a lot where the low closer to the coast gets all the energy.(Talking to the general public...not to anyone who knows weather)

I'm thinking that the 1st storm and the following 2 bagger will seem like one large mass of clouds and moisture that will eventually gel into one system that along the way could bring a mix of precip before booming into a snowmaker......if it booms at all...
Last night it looked like it could bring a snowstorm right down to dc proper..changed a little and looked a little weird on the last run...spread the two lows out too much like the model was a little confused..

Anyway..get some popcorn..sit back...and hopefully we can enjoy the movie!

Dont forget the previews this week...getting ahead of ourselves..

the diehards who live in the valley of pleasant living, almost heaven

Models look amazing for this time of year... really is ridiculous. Tree skiing on easter?

Planning on Snowshoe Fri, Sat and Sunday.

my latest take on the potential storm sun eve/mon is that the lows might set up too far apart to get a good phase going..they could get together and dump a little but it looks to me at least.(.put what ever value you have on that...especially with the storm 5 days out)...that the storm wont hang around long enough to be "Epic" because it seems like it will scoot up and out to sea too fast.(famous last words?)

Even without a really good phase where the storm really winds up and hugs the coast heading up the eastern seaboard.. a Bonified NEaster..it should produce some snows for the WVA (WV Alpps) and it doesnt stop there because there looks to be what could be an "Epic" cold spell to close out March that has snow showing up on the Long range GFS model almost every day..the same days Voila just posted for TL to be closed on!(and L-ski alluded to)

Anyway..thanks for humoring me..its fun playing fake weatherman!

PS..Abe..I see where the Wxrisk dude is cussing and fuming at the GFS model for not coming around to his Super Storm predict...the dudes a trip..

this retired nws snow loving guy usually sends a few of us canaan weather geeks emails only when he disagrees with 'public forecasts', to which is almost always right btw....but he is eluding to a storm also....I am sure he will update soon also.


From: Robert Leffler
Date: Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 9:11 AM
Subject: March Going Out Like a Lion


It appears a very wintery pattern will continue in the Canaan and surrounding WV high country through the end of March. There will be several chances for fresh snow. A weak system Thursday/Friday may produce an inch or two. A more significant storm will have to be watched for the Sunday evening into Tuesday time period. Temperatures will struggle to reach freezing in the afternoons through next weekend with some days not out of the twenties.

Winter recreation conditions looks good through next weekend.

Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman

Please let him be right; we are heading out to snowshoe Saturday-Wed to try out our new season passes. They will pay for themselves on this trip, and wouldn't it be cool to get SNOW the last week of March while we are there?

Crested 200" as of this morning. The non skiing locals are starting to hate life about this time. (and some of the skiing locals actually don't really care if it snows anymore)

the latest from the local guru..looks like more to come


From: Robert Leffler
Date: Thu, Mar 21, 2013 at 7:38 AM
Subject: Winter Weather Continues in the WV High Allegenies


Old Man Winter continue to hold a tight grip on WV's Canaan and surrounding high country and will continue to do so through much of next week. Today's high's will be in the teens above 3,500 feet with snow showers winding down early this morning. Last evening's additional 5 inches puts the official Canaan March snowfall at 48 inches and the season-to-date winter total at 201 inches! Compare this to Washington D.C.'s seasonal snowfall total of 1.7 inches at the Downtown airport (DCA) sea-level runways only 125 miles due east as the crow flies! This snowfall gradient is frequently the largest in eastern North America.

Down the road, your Fearless Canaan Weatherman still sees the potential snow storm for the Sunday/Monday time frame I mentioned two days ago. It's looking more likely now. While still too-early to pin down amounts, this storm will have a good moisture flow and 8-to-12 inches is a distinct possibility. After that, lots of low level instability and moisture threaten frequent up-slope snows for several more days next week. Below freezing maximum temperatures will continue, allowing the new snow to add to the existing snow pack. This mid-week scenario will also have to be watched as unstable air masses in later March rolling up and over the high ground can generate significant upslope snowfalls.

As always, monitor to National Weather Service local forecasts for updates on these developing weather events.

Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman

Ok..he can have the "Fearless Canaan Weatherman".moniker..I'll concede out of respect to a dude that has spent tons of time studying to be a met... a whole carrier as a NWS met...all the respect to MR Leffler!..

OK...Now..your "fearless West Va Alpps" Unedge=amakated...home bred biscuit breath..a whole lot of breath..the mouth that moved south..f-caster...is sticking to my original f-cast thinking post of a few days ago..a nice snow for the WVA..but I wouldnt call it epic like maybe the Wxrisk dude or others have been saying.
BUT...Like I posted a couple of days ago and just brought up by Mr. Leffler.. the following days next week.. coupled with what we are getting with this preview snows..the main event snow sun/mon...WILL be Epic for the end of March...all of us weather watchers have been saying that for awhile.

doood

http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/6365781/done-skiing

Pin point f-cast for above 4000' just south of the valley...

Sunday A chance of sleet before 1pm, then snow and sleet likely between 1pm and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 30. Southeast wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Sunday Night Snow and sleet before 10pm, then sleet between 10pm and midnight, then snow after midnight. Low around 21. Breezy, with a southeast wind 14 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

4 days ago I posted that it looked like it would start off with a mixed bag of Precip...Im still on track with my 1st call.....

I have been cking out the Wxrisk site twice a day..Dude is confused...Im hoping that a huge storm will take place for his sake to put him out of his misery and for any of the Dooods that still want to ski late this season!...got all spring n summer to bike!

That thing you posted Scotty is sooo true..folks would rather ski rocks and mud patches early in the season instead of the deep stuff at the end of season...

Looks like the WXrisk dude has just come around to Reality...
https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...378959772_n.jpg

I know..there is just something too fishy about my weather posts..think about it...I feel ya..

Wxrisk should raise his totals on his 2nd call map..think the warm wedge that threatens to damper the snow totals scared him off his game a little.

That warm air that will nudge towards the valley from the SW is the trickiest part of this f-cast..if you head to the sods and over a ridge or two it could stay all snow because the warm air wont be able to make it that far...so there is a fine line between 6 and 10/12 inches..(add 6 and 12..divide by 2=9..add an inch just because of the Canaan magic and the formula =10 inches by sun aft)

The storm will actually be scooting out to sea pretty fast like I posted on my 1st call and by early aft Sun even though it will still be snowing it will actually be the beginning of the snows that will keep going till wed eve/thur morn...could be a late March 7/8 day total of around 22 inches give or take..thats the epic part...

PS..this a weather thread..not my thread..its lonely here...got any thoughts?..comon..

MAYBE MY SKI SEASON ISN'T OVER YET AFTERALL??

Timberline Resort UPDATED days of operation for spring 2013 - as follows:
OPEN
Wed Mar 20
Thu Mar 21
Fri Mar 22
Sat Mar 23
Sun Mar 24
...closed for 4 days AND THEN OPEN again on:
Fri Mar 29
Sat Mar 30
Sun Mar 31

Well..TL looks to be closed during a 4 day period of skiing that would be awesome for mid season let alone late march...Gonna be sad seeing it dumping up there mon morn with the lifts standing still...Whos got a snowmobile for hire??..Jimk is buying!

Get on it Sat..could rain sun..

Also, a million kids from the DC area (including all public schools in ski-crazy Fairfax County, VA) are off March 25-29??

(Quote Fishnski)
I have been cking out the Wxrisk site twice a day..Dude is confused...Im hoping that a huge storm will take place for his sake to put him out of his misery and for any of the Dooods that still want to ski late this season!...got all spring n summer to bike!

That thing you posted Scotty is sooo true..folks would rather ski rocks and mud patches early in the season instead of the deep stuff at the end of season... [/quote]
Looks like the WXrisk dude has just come around to Reality...
https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a...378959772_n.jpg[/quote]

I have been posting on his site..Where u at Abe?..You were the one that posted that he was your new fav weather hypster..You have to have been cking him out..

Anyhoot..After his 1st guess Snowfall map I posted on his site that he might want to boost his WV Alpps amounts up..
I suggested that he should split the circle that he drew for the WVA(WV Alpps)and parts of VA into two parts due to the warmer air trying to feed into the system which might have an effect on the Snowfall totals

Here is his new map..I cant believe I swayed him..Remember though..these dudes and sites are f-casting for very large areas and I just post Canaan/SS weather stuff..

https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-p...349069238_n.jpg

Hope your having a pleasurable saturday...Luv Fishnski...

Working on a 12 x 16 shed in Williamsburg in the morning(sunday) until I get rained out then headed to the shoe for Mon + Tue.
Looks good to me !!

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.ph...r+Storm+Warning

I just cked the weather Map...Perfect Timing Brook!!
Put a 12 by 16 up at my WV Camp last year...Luv it..Good luck!

Holy cats! NWS Charleston really jumped on board with this storm... calling for a storm total of 20" at Snowshoe!

Why of why is tline closed Monday!

...what's the deal leavin' out Tucker county...

Good work on giving that guy an education fishnski... the alpps are a unique environment! I think he lives in Richmond so his forecasts seem a bit biased towards VA.

I'm bummed that we don't have Chris Bailey at WSAZ anymore... he used to really do a good job forecasting total for storms in the WV mountains.

No love for ya Tucker! I know, I wish the NWS Charleston office would expand their maps a bit...

Bailey still posts in KY. Here is his site:

http://kyweathercenter.com/?p=6300

He frequently includes WV in his maps.
The Colonel

I think Tucker County falls under the Pittsburgh office.
The Colonel

Mr. Fish,
A correction if you will allow.
Timberline web site still indicates they will be open on Thursday, March 28!
The Colonel

Who's skiing Tline on Thursday?? Looks like it could be deep and not too tracked out. I say 'too' because there will certainly be people earning turns on mon/tues/wed...

You guys can thank JohnL for the upgraded forecast. Gratuities accepted...

Jimmy not loving life right now.

Looks like the real cold is waning up at the big sky and some real nice weather for you all...I would absolutely love to able to whizz down those wide open cruisers with killer vert all along some of the weather I see coming.
Looks like up on the mountain there are little light freshie chances here n there to keep things nice....NOW...if Mount Porte Crayon was up and running with the 4 day snow totals coming up...fo- get- about it!!!...but it aint...so ..ski on brudda!...

NO..I will not allow the correction..u r dismissed Colonel!
Baily still lives but he has retreated further into the lowlands of Kentucky And rarely shows a f-cast map for WV anymore...There are some snowy Mountains on the Kentucky/Va boarder that he could f-cast for if and when a ski area could be put up..that Mountain range pisses me off sometimes because it seems to steal some snow from my adopted mtns here in NC!

Posting here on DCSKI is like preachin to the Quire..I like to Hype the Alpps on blogs like his and now on our new friends blog that Abe turned us on to(wxrisk FB )..I think they call him DT...on all those weather blogs there are some real..I mean REAl stupid people asking the same stupid questions over and over...would drive me NUTS..

I posted somewhere to get on it Sat since it might rain sun..think the rain will hold off till mon..clear sailin!
Course as always with anything I post..Trust but Verify..

PS..dont be surprised if it snows a little for the april 6th weekend with the Snowmobile races at TL...is that for real?

Thats what I was thinking yest morn and here is last eve WRF snowfall map..out to 2 pm tomorrow where the main storm has moved out and we are into the 2nd phase..
See where the Sods and just east seems like the bullseye?

http://www.grib2.com/wrf/M-ATL_WRF_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_42HR.gif

Also I see where you you posted the amounts for the Shoe Abe..Seems like with the over night model runs the highest amounts are shifting south a little...allthough the map you posted goes out to 2 pm tue..

PS..Look at the Blue ridge action..bumper crop!

Here is the other side...still no Tucker..Tucker..
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/

I left Snowshoe at 1:30 today. Flurries started at 11:45. I got off Ballhooter at a little after 1 and it was bombing snow. Huge flakes.

If not for my damn job I would have stayed one more day. Conditions are fantastic down there.

Told you all it wasn't going to be an Epic humungous storm that the chatter was all about...I also said by this time it would be Scooting offshore pretty fast..
CK this link out...looks like a hurricane offshore with an Eye!..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/sat_22.gif
345pm

Its going to snow all week...like I said..Thats Epic!

"but I'd say probably 8" this am over at tline to start off the day and probably 2" more throughout the day."
Quote by Tucker

Thats the last predict I ever make at DC Ski...

https://twitter.com/usNWSgov/status/316319851100663808

Snow totals from storm!
The Colonel