Hello fish, I saw a report that there is skiing on six continents at teh moment. I joked "climate change" and received a lecture about the difference between weather and climate change. Seems that the weather forecast is just an educated guess, a probablity, not a guarantee of what is going to happen somewhere between tomorrow and five days from now because it is just to hard to predict precisly. Climate scientists can predict with great certainty what is going to happen years into the future unless a carbon exchange, similar to a stock exchange is funded immediatley. We should let the climate scientists start predicting the weather.
The site has been slow, so I'll take the bait this time. Just numericaly, it's always easier to predict a global mean than a local event. The weather guys actually do much better with local event prediction than some other fields such as financial markets. A probability is the result of a model of a statistical distribution, an educated guess has no such bounds. Yes I consider this interesting.
I wonder if anyone has skiied 6 continents in one season. That would be a very beer-worthy.
I am guessing that there is no snow skiing in Africa at the moment?
When my one of my big investments in carbon futures, aged scotch whisky or pork bellies comes through I think I'll take a couple dozen of my closest friends on just such a trip, six continents in one season.
jimmy wrote:
I am guessing that there is no snow skiing in Africa at the moment?
When my one of my big investments in carbon futures, aged scotch whisky or pork bellies comes through I think I'll take a couple dozen of my closest friends on just such a trip, six continents in one season.
And if frozen orange juice concentrate makes me my millions you'll be at the top of my list. We'll knock them out over a 1 month period.
Gonna be up at Yellowstone and Jackson next week. Not taking skis this trip though. Mom's in charge and she don't ski. Fishing gear is packed though. Picking up an RV in SLC and rolling north for a week. Maybe I could sneak some ski blades in my checked bag and drop Corbetts on them? Bet it's quite gnarly this late in the summer thaw. Hold my beer!
For starters, that cooling and ice age theory our science teachers talked about in the late 70s was never a 97% majority opinion. It wasn't even a 50% opinion, just speculation with some data to support it. As for more snow.. and more rain.. and more heavy storms, there is more moisture available in the atmosphere to be dumped on us when it's not frozen at the poles anymore.. We'll have more intense rain and more intense snow for the next 50 years, then shifting from more snow to less snow ane even more rain rain I guess.
Enjoy it while it lasts. I plan to. It's really that simple, but more complex analsys from more qualified experts below.. Not the article itself but more in the references cited in it.
jimmy wrote:
I am guessing that there is no snow skiing in Africa at the moment?
When my one of my big investments in carbon futures, aged scotch whisky or pork bellies comes through I think I'll take a couple dozen of my closest friends on just such a trip, six continents in one season.
let's do a little searching over lunch.... in South Africa both Tiffindell and Afriski resorts are open, so that's one continent.
fishnski wrote:
How Important Is “Scientific Consensus” in Climate Research? In the case of global warming, it is nearly worthless. The climate system is so complex that the vast majority of climate scientists ”” usually experts in variety of specialized fields ”” assume there are more knowledgeable scientists, and they are just supporting the opinions of their colleagues. And among that small group of most knowledgeable experts, there is a considerable element of groupthink, herd mentality, peer pressure, political pressure, support of certain energy policies, and desire to Save the Earth ”” whether it needs to be saved or not. (Dr. Roy Spencer...(Nasa employee)
And their models are pretty damned spot on, even with the so called "pause" the projections made 30 years ago are right on track, and the increasing rate is accelerating just as predited globally.
Experts claimed the Arctic Ice would be gone 5 years ago.....Yeh...its felt a little heat but is holding up allright...is the slightly increased temps Natural or Man made?...how much of it is man made and would you have wanted to have forked over the Gazillion Bucks Obama wanted to try to fix it?...with most of that money going overseas to other countries who would cheat and steal it?....The US has done a tremendous job cleaning up our enviroment....we are really running clean now....
fishnski wrote:
....where you been Camp?.....
Funny, I just thought I'd check in to see if there's anything fresh i can argue about today. Been biking and hiking and biking since the locals shut down and seein' as i'm gettin' all hot and sweaty, i was hopin' you'd have some cold wx to throw on me. I'm with ya Fish. These other dudes on here with their science links an shit don't have nuthin on you. #MakeSummersColdAgain
fishnski wrote:
Experts claimed the Arctic Ice would be gone 5 years ago.....Yeh...its felt a little heat but is holding up allright...is the slightly increased temps Natural or Man made?...how much of it is man made and would you have wanted to have forked over the Gazillion Bucks Obama wanted to try to fix it?...with most of that money going overseas to other countries who would cheat and steal it?....The US has done a tremendous job cleaning up our enviroment....we are really running clean now....
Crush wrote:
Dr Degrasse Tyson commented on that this week. Neil said.."If we can turn Mars in to Earth, why can't we just turn Earth in to Earth again??"
fishnski wrote:
wote a lot about my agenda and all I have been doing as much damage as I can as a Turmp resistor - then cooled it off. Save it for anoher day.
E--
YouTube Posts from the partisan brain dead hate mongers. Real scientific.
Latest Searise news.....it was reported the other day that due to Searise a mile of the Cape hatteras Island has gone under water....
Wait a minute....sorry folks...got that wrong....a new Mile long Island has just formed off of Cape point Hatteras?....im Confused...
fishnski wrote:
Latest Searise news.....it was reported the other day that due to Searise a mile of the Cape hatteras Island has gone under water....
Wait a minute....sorry folks...got that wrong....a new Mile long Island has just formed off of Cape point Hatteras?....im Confused...
I know right?
And f** those peeps who say it's just a natural sandbar or shoaling. And just like that Tangier Island story, like the big man said, this Hatteras island will probably be there for hundreds more years.
fishnski wrote:
The Island formed..OFF of Cape point..Ocean side...yeh...Sand bars have been drifting here and there forever but I could see the Headlines now if a mile of Island sunk....It sure wouldnt be about natural shifting sandbars!....
I know its oceanside, i've been reading about this too and am familiar with Hatteras and spend a lot of time at the top end of that frame. Another big issue with Hatteras is that the inlets have been shoaling up and one inlet in particular has become challenging and closed at some times to deeper draft boats. How can there be shallower inlets in an era of sea level rise, right? It's like, how can Tahoe have got so much snow when the earth is heating up. And my stoopid local wx man saying it's going to be 70% showers today and it's sunny outside my window. Pfft, scientists. Stephen Hawking, wth does he know?
Squaw runs lifts on 4th of July for only 4th time in history:
JimK wrote:
Squaw runs lifts on 4th of July for only 4th time in history:
What more proof could there be that warming is a hoax?
This looks great, I skied almost every weekend this season on less that that
Bigger rain and snow (when cold enough) totals were predicted for this period by the climatologists. I'll take it as long as the rain snow line remains within 3 hours of my house.
Let's see here, millions of miles of coastline are lost every year at incrasing rates but it's all OK because there's ONE pretty neat new sandbar? Got it. I feel much better now hahaha.. meanwhile Mar-A-Lago is flooding more and more often hahahaha
It amazes me how a scientific issue has become an ideological issue. The US Geological survey has been monitoring sea level rise for many decades. The actual results indicates that there has been a rise of about 6 inches. I know you won't check this out since it may pop the ideological bubble you live in, but below is a link to the nearly 200 scientific organizations that endorse the idea that humans have had an effect on our climate. The geeky scientists may not be as charming as the marketing whizzes that the American Petroleum Insitute has hired to put doubts in the minds of partisans like you, but they have dedicated their lives to studying this issue and the scientific results are out there. You can't deny the facts. You can question what we should do about it, yes absolutely. Anybody who thinks we can burn hundreds of millions of years worth of carbon based fossil fuels in a little over a hundred years with no effects what so ever doesn't understand physics, thermodynamics and is generally a brain dead, poorly informed, ideologically influenced cabbage head who doesn't have the common sense that God gave geese. Whethrer or not that the coldest temperature in July ever record just happened or they are skiing in July in Lake Tahoe has absolutely nothing to do with climate change. Weather happens and it will continue to happen.
Fishnski - every year, like the return of the lightning bugs, you have to get your soap box out to profess your Trumpian ideals on a site where skiing is suppose to be subject matter. The fishing is good....why not trade the self righteous soap box for a fishing rod and give us a a break from this contentious subject.
https://www.opr.ca.gov/s_listoforganizations.php
SCWVA wrote:
SS, Your post lost its credibility as soon as you referenced a .gov website.
In all seriousness, how is that ? I worked for 9 years in a NIH science lab with a nobel laureate and a winner of the american chemical society gold medal. We worked in a peer reviewed section that had to prove worth every two years. I worked my ass off wiith a lot of dedicated people and it was a great experience. So how did you reach that conlusion? Enough of this science hate.
refreshed my learnings and im gathering that we have 400 parts per million of co2 in our atmosphere atm...we have had as much and probably more than the 4400ppm estimated during the last ice age....also from what I gather after 20 to 30ppm co2 is a nothing burger...its allready nearly maxed out in its warming at that point.....so...enjoy the green green grass of home!.....also..
remember SS..everytime you explode so angrilly in response to anything you are standing on your own soapbox...but I still enjoy your posts here and on any thread so keep em coming!
PS....double blanket morning here in the land of Canaan....53 this morn....
https://www.facebook.com/NowThisPolitics/videos/1603422099689274/
SCWVA wrote:
SS, Your post lost its credibility as soon as you referenced a .gov website.
If you don't trust most media outlets, you don't trust the overwhelming majority of the scientific community, you don't trust government funded research, expecially NASA who put men on the moon in the 60s and just landed a space ship on a freakin comet millions of miles from here travening at an amazing rate of speed... If you can't trust those sources, it's not sources you have problem believing, it's FACTS which don't align with what you'd prefer to believe that you have a problem accepting.
Crigldart - BINGO! These folks don't "believe" so they shoot the messenger. In this case, scientists who have spent their life researching this subject. I would like to know how these scientist will benefit from their research? As opposed to the oil and coal lobby who repeat billions in profits. But we trust them? That said, we are completely dependent on these sources of energy and will be until we suck it all out of the ground or it get's too scarce and too expensive for most regular folks to be able to afford it. At that point, all the dummies won't have a choice. I hope this situation comes after I am 6 feet under. Quite frankly, I think we all hope these climate predictions are wrong. Debate is fine But denigratinging scientists because you don't 'believe' I think is incomprehensible.
fishnski wrote:
The C02 effect on climate is... Btw..whats your carbon footprint Mr Smith?...be Honest...and what amount of money and fossil fuel luxeries are you willing to give up to fix this mess we have been hearing about for over 30 years now?
I agree with you. I live out in the country so I am totally dependent on my internal combustion automobile. Now fuel usage was one of my main criteria when we purchased our cars. However, I would say my foot print is perhaps average. I do heat my house with wood, and a heat pump. I don't drive a full size pick up or SUV. But I am a contributor to the problem. And that's why I always say you can debate the solution to this problem. It could be very costly and impactful. Based on The world's oil reserves and how fast we're using them, I think at some point we'll be forced into alternative solutions. Thus the problem will tend to solve itself, at least partially. I am an engineer, energy is critical to every problem we analyze and solve. Energy cannot be invented, only transferred to one form to another. If we can get energy economically from a source that does not pollute or impact the atmosphere, how can that be a bad thing? But to pretend that somehow human activity has no effect on our climate is just not factual. That's the issue that drives me crazy. And my posts are supposed to sarcastic, not angry. 😉
Im not seriously concerned and think its cool that you burn wood SS but just for kicks and giggles here is a response....
First off ...burning wood that lives off of C02 is not good for the inviro....personaly ive planted hundreds of trees...also ...
chemicals are produced when wood is burnt, including one of the most potent greenhouse gases, nitrogen dioxide; although the amounts may be small (200 g of CO2 equivalent per kg of wood burnt), the gas is 300 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide and lasts 120 years in the atmos....
Do we have to go through this *every* *single* *year*? Since this topic inevitably leads to a battle, please keep the climate change discussions and other politicized topics off of DCSki. This is not the place for that.
I think everybody has been very good this time around...(wellll..one of us might of got a little grumpy..) great thread for a slow summer....but im only going to post real time factual unbiased state of the climate reports from now on...starting this fall....im out till then...enjoy...and thx for some good posts uall...been fun!
Oh fish, this was fun, skiing on the fourth of july, brain dead cabbage heads, like a dead head only smells funny.
Anyways speaking of dead cabbage heads, how do you think they got dead?
Skiing without a helment, that's how.
This
"Fishnski - every year, like the return of the lightning bugs, ............................"
was pretty funny too; maybe more like buzzards return to Hinkley
Cabbage head was what my Polish grandmother called someone who she believed had no common sense only she used the Polish version - capusciana glowa.
However, the important news is that Mr. Fishnski has admitted that their is a cause for climate change....my wood stove. Along with poisoned dying children and the cause of frog deformities, it seems my wood stove is pure evil. And I thought I was just saving a few bucks on my heating bill!
Capa tosta, same thing in Italian. So you are using a two stroke stihl farmboss to clear cut the mid-Atlantic rain forest just to keep your house warm??
Shame
Ah, Lightning Bug, fireflys, they are actually beatles not flys but never the less, the ones from California are not very bright, in fact they don't light up at all.
I had to delete mypost on Fireflies...too offensive to firefly lovers....
Didn't see a single June bug this year. Five years ago they completely covered the pool a couple nights. As for individual footprint.. Today I finally got around to addingn insulation, 24" in the attic of our 60 something year old house. There was ZERO up there before today. Put in new windows about 10 years ago. Attic insulation ought to make a HUGE dent on our cooling and heating energy expenses and footprint.
Nice zero to 24 in an afternoon.
What happened to your Beatles?
jimmy wrote:
Nice zero to 24 in an afternoon.
What happened to your Beatles?
Speaking of Beatles... Put some of these out a few days ago. Already full of a bunch ornery Japanese Beatles at this point.
"Use of the Japanese beetle’s natural sex attractant for trapping is an ideal method to aid in the control of the insect through its own natural biology."
It's basically a huge bag of smut in my back yard. Hope the cops don't fine it...
Scott wrote:
Do we have to go through this *every* *single* *year*? Since this topic inevitably leads to a battle, please keep the climate change discussions and other politicized topics off of DCSki. This is not the place for that.
ya man! the voice of reason- oh heh it is your site geez. I think you should kick us *all* off . I can't, in restospect, believe how we have all (except you my dear moderator) have become *** **** and indeed we have. No more for me.
I'm out - we don't want this anymore - goodbye and thanks for all the fish.
M and E
Crush,
Don't go!!!
By the way, did you move from Park City?
MorganB
aka The Colonel
What an unbelievably rude reply. It is my site -- I'm the one pouring my time and money into it, and it's called DCSki, not DC-Let's-Endlessly-Debate-About-Climate-Change-Thus-Driving-Away-People-Who-Come-Here-To-Escape-Politics-And-Talk-About-Skiing.com.
But I'm the bad guy. Thank you for that nice feedback, and for using language fitting for the family audience of DCSki (language that I edited to change to *'s.). There are children that read this site, Crush.
Crush wrote:
Scott wrote:
Do we have to go through this *every* *single* *year*? Since this topic inevitably leads to a battle, please keep the climate change discussions and other politicized topics off of DCSki. This is not the place for that.
ya man! the voice of reason- oh heh it is your site geez. I think you should kick us *all* off . I can't, in restospect, believe how we have all (except you my dear moderator) have become *** **** and indeed we have. No more for me.
I'm out - we don't want this anymore - goodbye and thanks for all the fish.
M and E
Scott wrote:
What an unbelievably rude reply. It is my site -- I'm the one pouring my time and money into it, and it's called DCSki, not DC-Let's-Endlessly-Debate-About-Climate-Change-Thus-Driving-Away-People-Who-Come-Here-To-Escape-Politics-And-Talk-About-Skiing.com.
But I'm the bad guy. Thank you for that nice feedback, and for using language fitting for the family audience of DCSki (language that I edited to change to *'s.). There are children that read this site, Crush.
Oy - i am not sure why my post to you got spun 180 degrees - you are the *hero* here and we are the dumb a$$e$ and me included. Mea maxima cupla. Scott you were and never will be a bad guy - only a good guy to me. i confess my rather cryptic and cynical way of writing often backfires but when i say " ... voice of reason ..." i truly mean it. iI'll put it down to too much reading of Shaw and Emil Cioran and of course Douglas Adams with booze as a catylist. You are pretty sharp in a literary fashion i am suprised that you never caught my self deprication where i never use a capial "I" when i write about myself . From Major Barbara ... “He knows nothing; and he thinks he knows everything. That points clearly to a political career.”
Record high today for St. Louis- 108 degrees. Previous record was 107 set in 1901. No snow for St. Louie today.
Wow...that is Sizzling...dont want to know what the heat index was!....St Louie BBQ without the charcoal...,,,
. One interesting tidbit I just found out was that in the last 30 days we have had 638 record highs in the US but 1124 record low highs...
Also I read a tweet where a weatherman from New England was worried that the cool pattern they are in might fizzle out by Dec when the snow lovers need it...hope not but that just goes to show how important timing is for a good or bad month for snow n cold and that goes for the season as well...
Well it sure fizzled out last winter when I visited. 60's and rain followed by a brief snow shower then freezing temperatures. The worst 'velcro' snow I have ever skied on. Then it all froze. They groomed it but as it got skied off, all of the boiler plate below created by the rainy freeze/thaw weather of last winter was exposed. I have second thoughts about returning to New England unless it is spur of the moment to coincide with some decent winter weather. After 3 lousy winters, we're due for a decent winter here in the East. And as the fat lady once said, "Timing is everything".
snowsmith wrote:
Well it sure fizzled out last winter when I visited. 60's and rain followed by a brief snow shower then freezing temperatures. The worst 'velcro' snow I have ever skied on. Then it all froze. They groomed it but as it got skied off, all of the boiler plate below created by the rainy freeze/thaw weather of last winter was exposed. I have second thoughts about returning to New England unless it is spur of the moment to coincide with some decent winter weather. After 3 lousy winters, we're due for a decent winter here in the East. And as the fat lady once said, "Timing is everything".
We got lucky last season with a 3 day trip to Gore we got there just before Winter Storm Stella, STELLAAAAAA!!
Warmer oceans facilitate bigger precipitation events, both rain and snow. Folks well above the snow lines are enjoying the benefits as long as they remain above the rain/slow lines.. Folks below it are.. below it
my beach surf temp is 82....it was 80 and 79 1 to 2 weeks ago....its been hot here but the ocean is right at the average temp for this time of year....(source NWS ),,,ave is 82 but goes up to 83 beginning of Aug....4 days away...air temp 86..surf temp 82...SWEET!
jimmy wrote:
snowsmith wrote:
Well it sure fizzled out last winter when I visited. 60's and rain followed by a brief snow shower then freezing temperatures. The worst 'velcro' snow I have ever skied on. Then it all froze. They groomed it but as it got skied off, all of the boiler plate below created by the rainy freeze/thaw weather of last winter was exposed. I have second thoughts about returning to New England unless it is spur of the moment to coincide with some decent winter weather. After 3 lousy winters, we're due for a decent winter here in the East. And as the fat lady once said, "Timing is everything".
We got lucky last season with a 3 day trip to Gore we got there just before Winter Storm Stella, STELLAAAAAA!!
wow....whiteout!....(am I the only one that cant see the pic?)
fishnski wrote:
my beach surf temp is 82....it was 80 and 79 1 to 2 weeks ago....its been hot here but the ocean is right at the average temp for this time of year....(source NWS ),,,ave is 82 but goes up to 83 beginning of Aug....4 days away...air temp 86..surf temp 82...SWEET!
Average ocean temps are a degree higher than they were a few decades ago right? I remember surfing in a wetsuit until mid June off Long Island in the early 1980s. Down here in NC I don't usually need one after May. One degree makes a difference surfing but not as much as it makes when a hurricane is forming or fizzling out.
Anytime you get any offshore winds in Nags Head the water temps can drop by as much as 10-15 degrees in one day due to upwelling. It can go from 75 to 60 and you are gonna need a wetsuit at 60.
snapdragon wrote:
Anytime you get any offshore winds in Nags Head the water temps can drop by as much as 10-15 degrees in one day due to upwelling. It can go from 75 to 60 and you are gonna need a wetsuit at 60.
I never made it that far north since moving to NC. Kure has been my favorite place to bring a board. Wrightsville's OK in the off season, but June-August I avoid that place.
I'd love to rent a house in Corolla for a few days sometime. Haven't surfed on almost a decade, but will try it again now that the kids are old enough and strong enough swimmers that I no longer have to supervise their every minute out there.. Couple years ago I had to go get my son out of a rip current that was taking him out on his boogie board. Just handed some stranger on the beach my phone and huffed it out there and paddled both of us back diagonally. Guy with my phone said "nice save" when he handed me my phone back.
snapdragon wrote:
Anytime you get any offshore winds in Nags Head the water temps can drop by as much as 10-15 degrees in one day due to upwelling. It can go from 75 to 60 and you are gonna need a wetsuit at 60.
Ive seen that many times over the years up there but down here in the SE NC Banks we dont get that `because of the prevaling summer winds that are SW usually which works for a NE shoreline like Nagshead....
you would think ``from what we "know" that the Artic temps would be way above ave but they have been running below ave since early summer...lets hope it keeps up...im sure uall are with me on that!....`..BTW...winter temps can have huge variables..(normal)
yeh...start the obs in 1992 and yes,,,we are flaming out!
^^^US average highs only? Cherry pick much??
And looking at Global Averages pre and post adjustment for mercury to digital..
Link to source
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/feb/08/no-climate-conspiracy-noaa-temperature-adjustments-bring-data-closer-to-pristine
That graph has that suspicious hockey stick look to it that has been debunked...Why are the US temps not showing the extremes in world temps?
`
the above was put out by J Hansen who is the godfather and leader of the GW 'ers...
something just doesnt smell right with the world temps...first off there are huge areas that have no monitoring stations...while the US has a great amount of decent info...although even our temps have been fuzzied up by heat islands and asphalt ect....
.but if it were correct and my ave high temps were correct I wonder what that means?....bet there could be all kinds of theories as to why the highs are trending down but the mean temps are rising.( I posted earlier where we have had more than twice as many record low highs this summer than record highs)..could be some sort of lag effect and the warming has peaked?...dunno..im just an optimist and maybe my bullheadness is Clouding up my thinking...hmmmmm...clouds....
Anyhoot...back to reality....tis the time of the year to watch the tropics!....I had fun with Mathew last year down here in the Cape Fear...
Doctor Hansen testimony to Congress:
Hansen was invited to testify before the United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on June 23, 1988.[72] Hansen testified that "Global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming...It is already happening now"[51] and "The greenhouse effect has been detected and it is changing our climate now...We already reached the point where the greenhouse effect is important."[73] Hansen said that NASA was 99% confident that the warming was caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and not a random fluctuation.[51][
Geeze....the Great weather news and state of the climate are crisscrossing each other and dodo brain me keeps posting on wrong thread...they both have the same color!!..
long story short...State of the Climate is doing well......
fishnski wrote:
Geeze....the Great weather news and state of the climate are crisscrossing each other and dodo brain me keeps posting on wrong thread...they both have the same color!!..
Based on 1981-2010 data.. with a third of that being the so called "pause"? Mmkay hahahaha! We've rebounded from that "pause" and are back in line with the models including the hockey stick. Let's see that model rerun to include data from 1981 through 2016 mmmkay??
This is a fact based climate thread without a need for argument..since its an innocent factual state of the present and future fcasts... we do not discuss the past here.(unless its a great weather and ski story)..if you feel the need to discuss GW then I would suggest meeting some buddies at the latest Al Gore movie.....Mmkay?...
fishnski wrote:
This is a fact based climate thread without a need for argument..since its an innocent factual state of the present and future fcasts... we do not discuss the past here.(unless its a great weather and ski story)..if you feel the need to discuss GW then I would suggest meeting some buddies at the latest Al Gore movie.....Mmkay?...
Mkkay then don't add stuff like this,,,
"long story short”¦State of the Climate is doing well”¦”¦" Especially from cherry picked HISTORICAL, decades old data again..
Im just messin with ya CDart..just having fun...I like to have a good argument but im just trying to keep the peace here so Scott doesnt get the sweats....
Plus you are looking at my image wrong....its a fcast map for August 15th showing the 2m temp anomoly in North America which shows cooler than normal temps across a huge area including the Arctic where we are at a critical melt stage....im always rooting the Arctic on arn't you?...anyhoot I stand by my statement that the State of the Climate is fine for now and at least for the next week or so...in north America.
PS..there are a couple of storms that are going to dump a ton of Snow on the Arctic ice that is left up there during the next 10 days and the Arctic temp at and above 80 north just hit the freezing level again after a long summer which is a little early so im keeping hope alive that we can see a good rebound in the ice extent this Sept..it is the cold breeding ground for us down here!
Not too shabby .........
We have just dealt with Harvey and now we have Irma coming in strong Atm...with Jose maybe on her heels..lets hope they veer out to sea...at least not hit the Gulf coast!
Better signs for a colder Snowier winter for us here in the East...keep ur Skiis Crossed!!!
Crazy mean looking Hurricane Irma out there...5 or 10 mph more sustained winds and she could equal the record set by Allen in 1980 ?...!!...feeding on that warm water...saw a dive report from a reef out in the keys and they reported 87....generally its been going over mid 80's water....it looks like it will at least match the record for an Atlantic basin Storm..(recorded of course...huge storms back in the day that were not recorded but talked about)
Love to be able to get an idea how much heat it is transfering out to space..hope alot for us snowbirds!..
The arctic looks like it has stopped melting 12/14 days before average date...will have to see if that holds but the Arctic temp above 80 north has been running below to average so it looks good...
back to the weather models......
out of the 3 main ones used the most respected Euro just split the uprights between the GFS and the CMC runs scraping Irma along the cuban coast helping to slow it a little but then curving it north across Key west (more warm water ) and then slamming into the Naples,Fl area and then splitting Fl right up the middle and into Georgia....the GFS slams Key Largo area into Miami and then back over the ocean and up the east side till it hits the Savanah Ga area...Cmc takes it just west of main Fl and then hits the panhandle somewhere..maybe appalachia bay, Fl,..(dont mess up all that good seafood..big crabs oysters ect..!)...
there is no cat 6 but this storm is every bit of that right now...hope Cuba can slow it down and then somehow take the best path of least destruction!!!....The state of the climate is Humming!
Back to back 500 year storms still isn't necessarily "climate". We shall see if it does actually become more than two data points and a trend in the coming years.
I wish I could find it but there was a split screen image posted somewhere that showed an identical shot of three hurricanes that were spinning at the same time in the Same places on different years..it was really cool..thinking the same setup as today was from back in 1989?...dunno..looked hard for it..oh well he is a shot from the other day that would have matched the other image...( but with different hurricane names...was one named igor?...scratching my head..)
crgildart wrote:
Back to back 500 year storms still isn't necessarily "climate". We shall see if it does actually become more than two data points and a trend in the coming years.
Harvey wasn't a 500 year hurricane it was called a 500 year flood after it stalled over Tx but we dont have 500 years of records ...and Irma isn't a 500 year storm either..could be close to one but we cant be sure...Irma never did get up to 190mph to match Allen did she?...she topped out at 185 I think....could break all records for dollar amount losses if she splits up Fl the way the latest track looks...
I lived thru the 500 year flood of Floyd and the 500 year blizzard occuring in the same year and my 1st year living in NC....
Loving the WX we are having now here in NC...Canaan is getting some weather now that would be lake effect in a month...
fishnski wrote:
crgildart wrote:
Back to back 500 year storms still isn't necessarily "climate". We shall see if it does actually become more than two data points and a trend in the coming years.
Harvey wasn't a 500 year hurricane it was called a 500 year flood after it stalled over Tx but we dont have 500 years of records ...and Irma isn't a 500 year storm either..could be close to one but we cant be sure...Irma never did get up to 190mph to match Allen did she?...she topped out at 185 I think....could break all records for dollar amount losses if she splits up Fl the way the latest track looks...
I lived thru the 500 year flood of Floyd and the 500 year blizzard occuring in the same year and my 1st year living in NC....
Loving the WX we are having now here in NC...Canaan is getting some weather now that would be lake effect in a month...
"500 year storm" includes 500 year flood (AKA rain), 500 year hurricane, 500 year hail, etc.. Imra now has the record for longest to maintain Cat 5 in recorded history. Yes, we can't be sure back more than 200 years but odds and data support that categorization for both as "500 year storms". That blizzard of 2,000 was awesome here. Wish we could get one every year but would pass on the summer versions..
Look, we have three guys from the old north state talking climate on dcski.
About our snowicane in 2000, that was indeed great, lots of neighborhood skiing. The great thing was it stayed cold for two weeks. Then we had another big snow forecast but the storm stayed off the coast and all we got was gray skies. The national media was here expecting another stupid southerners snow disaster that did not happen.
Harvey was interesting. The gulf surface stayed above 73F all winter, abnormally warm, and was still 4F above normal which provided the fuel. Then it got stalled. And then you have low lying Houston with a gazillion acres of concrete just waiting for runoff. 50" of rain is crazy. With Fran we only got 10", in one night, and that was too much. Floyd dropped 20" on ENC, max 24" on Southport, and you remember what that did.
fishnski wrote:
Just try to figure out what 200 years of records % wise compared to how long the Earth has been here....thats one of my main issues with folks always jumping the gun to these Conclusions...
You know there is a lot of geo physical evidence, of several types, for weather and climate events and trends. The ice ages were a long time ago but I feel confident that John Muir described them accurately.
Meanwhile, this image is from a guy I follow on Twitter for interesting graphs using my favorite software - SAS. Pretty interesting how rare cat 5 has actually been.
fishnski wrote:
Just try to figure out what 200 years of records % wise compared to how long the Earth has been here....thats one of my main issues with folks always jumping the gun to these Conclusions...
Well, ya, but most of the outliers even back to the big bang are explained by super volcanoes and asteroid strikes. The other more recent ones are regional instead of global..
https://www.facebook.com/UNEP/videos/10155688251685712/?hc_ref=ARRspHZjF6RRqPtgLgUOwpuVUKEW9A0MsIpSJ6gAOlXfmWZNoRKJ8T_Qh0h4yDCtLFs&pnref=story
snow over the weekend on the grand Tetons....
Arctic sea ice much above 5 years ago...no Death Spiral...
other than the Carribean and the Keys destroyed by a massive Hurricane and another Cat 5 named Maria on Irmas Heels...speaking of Heels...whats with these woman?...Winter seems to be forming nicely ATM....no worries.....
fishnski wrote:
Arctic sea ice much above 5 years ago...no Death Spiral...
other than the Carribean and the Keys destroyed by a massive Hurricane and another Cat 5 named Maria on Irmas Heels...speaking of Heels...whats with these woman?...Winter seems to be forming nicely ATM....no worries.....
Keep the early cold n snow out west..we dont need early cold snaps here in the East because it usually means a later start to winter...east might get the 1st real cold shot 3 weeks into Oct...
Awesome start to snow cover ..lookin good.....all Systems are GO for a decent Winter....Skiis Crossed!
As predicted, snow events will be bigger where the air is cool enough to produce snow.. This is because warmer oceans and warmer air above those bodies of water facilitiate greater evaporation and more robust cloud seeding. Big snow events also facilitate greater ice extent, just not deeper volume as much. It's supposed to get better just above the snow/rain lines before those lines retreat farther and farther towards the poles/higher elevations. I plan to make the most of it but also vote for policies which might possibly slow down the Co2 emissions causing the greenhouse effects.. and bigger snows for now..
fishnski wrote:
Now with Greenland ice mass gain at record levels for last year and this year so far it could be or not be the result of your theory CDart...dunno..just know that things are fine now....actually great!
Great? Isn't Greenland suffering massive ice loss and permafrost melting to the point of peat wildfires.
Bonzski wrote:
fishnski wrote:
Now with Greenland ice mass gain at record levels for last year and this year so far it could be or not be the result of your theory CDart...dunno..just know that things are fine now....actually great!Great? Isn't Greenland suffering massive ice loss and permafrost melting to the point of peat wildfires.
I read all that stuff that you read and it all gets debunked...you are reading stuff that is put out by folks with an agenda...
https://realclimatescience.com/2017/10/greenland-ice-growth-ahead-of-last-years-record-pace/
I think this could be a great setup for T-Giving in the East..specially the Mid Atlantic...We get these early cold snaps all the time just to be let down year after year so im liking this pattern!....If we miss TGiving then its on for XMas and the rest of winter!
This pattern has it Snowing in Denver today but hopefully it shifts east just in time for Gobble do Gee!...
Great Snow cover up north to generate cold for us..way above snow cover thx to CDarts Theory..Arctic Ice growing like crazy...lets all Fget the coming Doom and Gloom and enjoy the Moment!
I'll be a happy camper if we get two Thanksgiving weekends in a row with NC resorts open :-)
its looking like we could be swinging to a cooler east with a pattern change...this cool air now is a teaser and it will warm up for a week and then its looking to get busy and im hoping its going to hold into TGiving but thats too far off right now...after the next cold shot around the 25th ..( first snow flakers?..) there should be another one on its heels around the 28th and then closing out October....We went from Summer to Tgiving weather down here in SE NC overnight!...
I'd take two weeks of cold mid November over one week of cold next week.. But, always happy to see snow flakes, ALWAYS!
crgildart wrote:
Im with ya Cdart!...we have to have great timing here in the Mid Atlantic..... Cooler shots on schedule..nothing dramatic yet on models that would upset TGiving yet..or Xmas.. 2 good signs for winter...The Ocean in Front of Barrow Ak is freezing over a couple of days b4 the average date from records dating back to 1920 and unoficially since the late 1800's....and me n the Misses will be migrating south to Fl from NC 2 days earlier as well... These signs are as good as Wooly...worms?....I'd take two weeks of cold mid November over one week of cold next week.. But, always happy to see snow flakes, ALWAYS!
Favorite things about Thanksgivng weekend..
Watching the Cowboys play Thursday.
Getting a tree on Friday and decking the halls
Skiing a couple hours Saturday with leftover turkey sandwiches for lunch break.
Coming home about the time the Christmas lighs in the house pop on Saturday evening.
Mr Fish, How is her leg healing?
The Colonel
I'm always OK with a snow day.. but working from home office prevents me from missing work as long as there is internet available. Kids are growing, girl may be done but boy is definitely still sprouting up. Got new snow boots for both kids stashed but won't give them until Christmas unless we get that dump sooner. Ski boots I try to shop ahead. I've got the boots they wore end of last season, both went up a mondo around late February, and two mondos up from those in the closet when they need them. When they stop growing and want to ski more tham 3-6 days a season I'll look in to good, pro fitted boots for them. Right now I'm happy and they're happy with their own pretty good fit, better than resort rentals..
Let it SNOW!
you can see this storm forming south of Cuba as a tropical storm”¦this image will update so you can follow the progress”¦Watch the cold front coming down and across and see how it interacts with the tropical system.as it heads north”¦will it push it off or suck it in and hold it tight as it wrappes up the coast to new England?
fishnski wrote:
Looks like its getting wrapped up into one big system...gonna be an interesting aft/eve up in the Alpps!....
fishnski wrote:
...slipped on her crutches and tore her Archillis tendon right off her heel..
Uggh, sorry to hear
ur a good Man Camp..dont care what cantfishnwishhecouldski says about ya!.....wait a minute..I get it...sorry to hear it wasn't my archillis?.....Ughhhh...
Wierd seeing snow covered grass at the bottom of the lifts at Silvercreek but none at the top of the Shoe on the cams...anyway..its a start to winter!
fishnski wrote:
Wierd seeing snow covered grass at the bottom of the lifts at Silvercreek but none at the top of the Shoe on the cams...anyway..its a start to winter!
Im just going to keep talking to myself...got the Carolina Tampa game on in the background...just migrated south from Carolina to Tampa area so this game kinda sucks for me....hope one of them wins!
The temp at Canaan Hts has been below freezing since 9am but Dave Lesher the obs guy up there has only reported rain or drizzle thats because its warmer higher up...grass freezing up with sleet,snow and freezing rain at the bottom of Silvercreek b4 whitegrass showing up at the top of the shoe shows how this works in a little micro type of way...
I did see a little flurry of Snow on the Canaan Cam around 10am but it shut down quick...just part of the dynamics of a big system trying to get together..
Looking at the weather models upper elevation temps they all seemed to gel with a top to bottom below freezing Skew by 4pm...
its almost 4 so im going to keep on peeping at the Cams...while watching Cam Newton rack up some points on Tampa..come on Tampa!..no...win Carolina!..sooo confused..let it snow..let it snow!!!
hellll yehhhh...4pm game on local Tv is Dallas Redskins!....snowing up and down the WV Alpps....everything is all White now!!!
Snowing and blowing at Snowshoe. ... not even November. It will all melt but it makes you feel good.
8.5 inches from the storm recorded at 3715' Canaan Hts...not too shabby for pre Halloween...
Too bad it will all melt very soon. We really don't want the snow to happen this time of year; we want it to happen in the winter and then stay around. Last winter was one of rain and alot of melting. Hopefully we can reverse the trend of the last 3 sucky years and have a nice winter where it snows and the snow stays around for a while. That would be nice. Unfortunately, NOAA has predicted a warmer than normal winter for our area. I am hoping they are very wrong.
Snowguns on at Snowshoe. Won't last but it is fun to see for now.
snowsmith wrote:
... Unfortunately, NOAA has predicted a warmer than normal winter for our area. I am hoping they are very wrong.
Pffft. Gov't scientists. What do they know, right.
camp wrote:
snowsmith wrote:
... Unfortunately, NOAA has predicted a warmer than normal winter for our area. I am hoping they are very wrong.
Pffft. Gov't scientists. What do they know, right.
Well lets see...they invented the internet, the space program, the atomic bomb, etc....need I go on. Let's not make scientist the enemy. They are responsible for the quality of our modern life. If anthing, let's make polititians who question the integrety of scientist, govenment or private, the enemy. Back to the subject......
I am sure that it is very difficult to develop models that predict long term weather. But being a skier, I want a prediction that says the winter will be colder than normal. It would make me feel better. I may look for a woolly bear caterpillar.
snowsmith wrote:
...I am sure that it is very difficult to develop models that predict long term weather. ..
This is the most hopeful I found. Equal temps and increased Precip. Of the 4 options in this temp:precip matrix, I call it 2nd best. I'd call lower temp, lower precip 1st best (since more precip usually means rain here). Cold and dry is best for snowmaking and any natural lasts longer in the woods
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3
It may all melt before the day is over but it sure looks nice.
Especially exciting to see the guns roaring!
The winter predictions by either Government, and I think we should be thankful we have a NOAA, not beat up on them, or by private entities such as (In)Accuweather are generally reasonably predictive of overall weather trends such as NAO, El Nino, etc. The predictions do not cover specific areas such as DC but rather regions. I like Kentucky Weather Center personnally but this guys is not always right either. But he considers trends, not forecasts, to provide some kind of estimation on what may happen. He knowns all of the models...the Canadian, the European, the GFS, etc and looks to see what the models are good at predicting. Then watches to see if these models begin to converge on a solution. Unfortunately, mathmatical models is all we humble humans have to predict natural phenomena. We engineers need to use these tools all of the time to predict how our products will perform. And we are usually right, but not always. Whoops.... we forgot to take this factor into consideration. Lesson learned. Actually, I am quite amazed at how good the predictions are sometime.
Interestingly, I recently watched the PBS show Nature that covered a very interesting weather happening that occured I think in 1239 AD in Indonesia ( they finally nailed it down to this location after looking for many years) This HUGE volcanic eruption that occured at that time sent the Earth into a mini ice age for a while since the volcano spewed so much ash into the atmosphere it blocked enough sunlight to majorly chill the planet. The skiing could have been good if they only had invented skis and chair lifts. But many folks froze to death. That's what we need... a good eruption!
West Virginia is on the Map!......adding to a very impressive Northern Hemisphere Snow cover....
fishnski wrote:
..thats funny as heck since they cant even fcast dependably out past 5 days...also keep in mind that predicting a warm winter for populated cities like DC is apples and Oranges to a place like Canaan Valley,Wv...
Nailing long term averages pretty far out (decades) is quite a bit easier than nailing exact temps and precipt for exact times more than a week away..
snowsmith wrote:
Interestingly, I recently watched the PBS show Nature that covered a very interesting weather happening that occured I think in 1239 AD in Indonesia ( they finally nailed it down to this location after looking for many years) This HUGE volcanic eruption that occured at that time sent the Earth into a mini ice age for a while since the volcano spewed so much ash into the atmosphere it blocked enough sunlight to majorly chill the planet. The skiing could have been good if they only had invented skis and chair lifts. But many folks froze to death. That's what we need... a good eruption!
oh no...careful what you wish for Mr Smith!!.....
fishnski wrote:
Yellowstone volcano WARNING: Catastrophic eruption would destroy ALL life on Earth
YELLOWSTONE’S supervolcano could have enough magma to destroy life on Earth in a matter of decades, researchers have warned.........
SWEET! What kinda wax do ya recommend fer dat eh??
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED....High Country Snow Party?......10 days out.....
Blue Don posted a pic of weather probs for 15 days out on another thread but that is too far out....I dont like posting stuff like this but to back up the Don here is the GFS 15 day prog...
Mr Fish we must will this storm into reality. No snow means traveling to my sister in laws for turkey day.
Blue Don 1982 wrote:
Mr Fish we must will this storm into reality. No snow means traveling to my sister in laws for turkey day.
LOL
This thread has been too quiet.
Anyone else reading the weatherheads posts on social media taking about pattern changes next week and sustained cold moving into our area?
Yes, record minimum snow coverage for late Nov in the lower 48 but record cold in Alaska and points north. Going to flip next week so get your lights up and start waxing!
agree, I see 2 cold dips coming and the one around Dec 15th looks good enough to get blowing snow going.
Blue Don 1982 wrote:
This thread has been too quiet.
Anyone else reading the weatherheads posts on social media taking about pattern changes next week and sustained cold moving into our area?
Just one more thing.. We're also out of coffee...
skiracerx wrote:
agree, I see 2 cold dips coming and the one around Dec 15th looks good enough to get blowing snow going.
Whoa D Doe....models have been consistent with a cold shot coming in the 1st week of Dec for a good while now and lasting till the model runs out....
Anybody that can see past that is worth GadZillions!!!!!
I read this the other day and said.."HUH?"....
"An eruption of Mount Agung, which has been rumbling since September and on Monday sent ash soaring 4.7 miles above sea level, could cool the earth for years, which traders say could usher in freezing temperatures across the U.S. and higher gas prices.But research shows Northern Hemisphere winters tend to be warmer than usual following large tropical eruptions; an eruption also could trigger a Pacific Ocean El Nino by cooling tropical Africa, which could set the stage for milder conditions across much of the U.S."......???....whatever...either way it just shows that even though Man might contribute a little Mother Nature rules!...
We are going to ERUPT in winter weather starting wed the 6th...eastern US will go into snow n cold mode and as happens alot Europe will get hit with a cold snap as well...east coast cold = Alaska warm=europe cold and so on...our turn!
...(Nothing to fear but the Pattern as the Northern Hemi Snow cover is large and deep and the Arctic Ice is gaining nicely...its a go Houston!)
fishnski wrote:
...(Nothing to fear but the Pattern as the Northern Hemi Snow cover is large and deep and the Arctic Ice is gaining nicely...its a go Houston!)
HUH? Snow cover in the US is nearly non-existent. This November had record warmth. This pattern change should change that and our winter starved region will finally have an extended period of snow making weather as well as possible Clipper storms and lake effect snow. My weather guy says this will be a front loaded winter. We shall see.
I sure hope this guy is correct - VIDEO FORECAST
Game on here. Blowing now... natty snow tomorrow in to Saturday. Will be up there checking it out Sunday... probably under heavu show gun attack hahaha.. Temps in the 20s all day so will cover up for that and scrape goggles frequetly. Let's hope they can get enough down to hold the base through the holidays
crgildart wrote:
Game on here. Blowing now... natty snow tomorrow in to Saturday. Will be up there checking it out Sunday... probably under heavu show gun attack hahaha.. Temps in the 20s all day so will cover up for that and scrape goggles frequetly. Let's hope they can get enough down to hold the base through the holidays
Great to see the guns and Mother nature teaming up today on the NC web cams...enjoy....its a southern thang right now...from the beaches of deep south Texas (and down to Mehico ) thru NC and up to the home of the Redskins....Hail?..Snow to the Skins!
storm has been moving up into the East Coast now...been in the 80's here in Florida today but im hearing thunderstorms now which means the cold air is invading!...
here is a recent pic of Canaan valley,Wv....NOT...its Atlanta Georgia!
and now snowing in Sailbury,Md....Winter Storm Warning Southern Maryland......
15 days out so you can take this with a flake of Snow but there is hope for a good Xmas....
MWGA!!
Huge uptick in the next 10 day snow totals coming from the Euro and Gfs wx models..they have both been spitting out 9 or 10 inches and this morning jumped to 15 for the Gfs and 24 inches for the Euro!...these are 10 to 1 Snow to liquid ratios and we are talking the Wv Alpps which means we will (could..if it comes true ) beat that by a good margin...and xmas is still coming in decent...still a ways off but we were due for a good start!
starting christmas there are 10 days showing below teen..HIGHS...for North Dakota/Minnesota...peaking at 24 below zero for a high a couple of days....Heat dont fail me now!!!
Cold everywhere....chinese cant get enough heating fuel..England going into..no..been in a deep cold state...and now there is talk of the world going into a 120 year cool down starting in 2019....Guess the GW funds are running dry...
fishnski wrote:
starting christmas there are 10 days showing below teen..HIGHS...for North Dakota/Minnesota...peaking at 24 below zero for a high a couple of days....Heat dont fail me now!!!
Cold everywhere....chinese cant get enough heating fuel..England going into..no..been in a deep cold state...and now there is talk of the world going into a 120 year cool down starting in 2019....Guess the GW funds are running dry...
120 year cool down 😆😅😅😆😅😅🙂 That's pretty funny. All of those thousands of scientist researching climate are getting are getting a good Cristmas gift....a good chuckle. I would be happy with a 120 day cool down. Somebody has to tell the polar bears so they all don't move to Miami.
Yeh Denis. London is a Huge insulated City at the Southern tip of England and is tempered by the surrounding Sea...but they have had very cold weather and here is a headline from 18 hours ago...."No White Christmas for Brits as temperatures soar to 12C ”“ but COLD snap round corner"....
Bottom line is if we are or have not just been in a normal warmer period cycle maybe made a very minute bit warmer by man but easily adapted to ...then if we do get a cooler 120 years, Mother Nature just gave us a last chance to get our act together Christmas Present...Merry Christmas DCSKI...and a happy New Year of fun Skiing!
PS..bundle up..12 below 0 actual temps at the tops of the lifts up in the Wv Alpps sunday morning the 31st!!....
Things may be getting better in the east, but they are an umittigated disaster in Eagle and Summit Counties, Colorado. Snow condtions are really bad. I think all of Vail's resorts are at most 25% open (Beaver Creek has 24 out of 150 trails open), and there is virtually no black terrain open. I'm not there, but I can only imagine how bad it must be to put holliday crowds on such a limited amont of terrain.
Merry Christmas to all.
Cold just made it back here today. Small storm is due Thursday. I'll probably drive up and ski Friday morning in an attempt to optomize the post natural and week of snow malking and minimize the holiday crowds out there.Sat and Sunday will proably be NUTS with Monday being a holiday. Thinking Friday will be the lull if there is one..
bob wrote:
Things may be getting better in the east, but they are an umittigated disaster in Eagle and Summit Counties, Colorado. Snow condtions are really bad. I think all of Vail's resorts are at most 25% open (Beaver Creek has 24 out of 150 trails open), and there is virtually no black terrain open. I'm not there, but I can only imagine how bad it must be to put holliday crowds on such a limited amont of terrain.
Merry Christmas to all.
mostly moisture starved but if they had good snowmaking there has been plenty of cold stuff to work with..those sunny clear days up there bring on cold nights!.....Copper mountain recorded snow 15 of the last 25 days but I guess it was really light stuff...another 7 inches in Canaan today...im playing this little violin for CO..my heart breaks for them!...
Here is an image of Christmas day 1983...about mirrors todays image...Co just gets eeked out of the good stuff...but we know that wont last...they have actually been below ave for the last 5 days and are fcast to be below for the next week from what I can tell....just need snow to go with it...
PS...just cked...snowing and 12 degrees loveland pass....fighting back!
Just watching the Canaan valley webcam brings shivers down my back and I have to walk outside my Florida home to soak up a little sunshine and warm up...spending a chunk of winter in Fl will trully turn you into a wimp...northeners are tough!...I know..playing a little violin for me...
fishnski wrote:
bob wrote:
Things may be getting better in the east, but they are an umittigated disaster in Eagle and Summit Counties, Colorado. Snow condtions are really bad. I think all of Vail's resorts are at most 25% open (Beaver Creek has 24 out of 150 trails open), and there is virtually no black terrain open. I'm not there, but I can only imagine how bad it must be to put holliday crowds on such a limited amont of terrain.
Merry Christmas to all.
mostly moisture starved but if they had good snowmaking there has been plenty of cold stuff to work with..those sunny clear days up there bring on cold nights!.....Copper mountain recorded snow 15 of the last 25 days but I guess it was really light stuff...another 7 inches in Canaan today...im playing this little violin for CO..my heart breaks for them!...
Here is an image of Christmas day 1983...about mirrors todays image...Co just gets eeked out of the good stuff...but we know that wont last...they have actually been below ave for the last 5 days and are fcast to be below for the next week from what I can tell....just need snow to go with it...
PS...just cked...snowing and 12 degrees loveland pass....fighting back!
Aside from the about 12 inches received in CO over the last two days, there hasn't been much natural snow this year. Absent snowmaking each area might have 1 or 2 trails open. Heck Vail is sporting a 23 inch base on December 25 with China bowl ,Blue Sky, the back bowls and a bunch of front side terrain all closed. The 10 day forecast indicates there will be no help coming with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens with flurries at best (that's in Breck, Vail will be warmer as it is at a lower altitude).. This should be the coldest part of the year with night time lows as low as -25 or -30, but not this year.
fishnski wrote:
COLDCOLDCOLDCOLDCOLD......AND..COLDER!.......all those splashy fcasts are all bogus...just guesses.......
Yup fish. Tell it to all those science suckers. I knew once we got a new man in the big house he'd turn the thermostat down. #breakinrecords
Well Camp...we are still .05c warmer than.."Average" worldwide according to recent Anomoly map I saw......but with that said this cold snap over on this side of the world is super crazy cold...this morning I saw 2 stations in Davis,Wv show 10 below 0...thats colder than any temp recorded in the Canaan area during December in the last 20 years...coldest I saw b4 that was minus 4...shattered!...
Canaan recorded 2.8 inches of snow but I did the math and the Snow had a 56 to 1 Snow to Liquid ratio...thats almost pure air...Powder!
Here is what a weatherman I follow just posted about a trump tweet that this years New years eve could be the coldest ever....
"Fact check on the temperature part: True. Temperatures the morning of January 1, 2018 will be coldest on record from -31°F in South Dakota to -19°F in Des Moines, Iowa and 8°F in Newark! Average Low Temperature across Lower 48 states forecast to be only 9°F
This helps. But just as another poster said in another thread. This does already feel a little like last season with the 2 big cold snaps that enabled the snow guns to open it all up.
SCWVA wrote:
I can confirm Dave's temps. My truck said it was -5f yesterday am on Canaan Heights and the warmest temp I saw was -3f. Skiing was fabulous at CVR.U r a Norsky cold Hardened tough West Virginian!!
Blow as long and hard as they can... build up that base as high as possible.. going back up to 70s by the end of next week.. Can anyone say chaotic?? Biggest storm surge tide flood ever measured in Boston last week. Not even hurricane season..
Bonzski wrote:
-....Spruce was great, didn't venture to WT because I expected winds to be howling.
What is Spruce?
How's this precipitation going to pan out over the next 24hrs? More rain than snow??
All snow at 7springs today (and most of the resorts in the Mid atlantic). 4" today and not super wet. Some nice turns to be had.
David wrote:
How's this precipitation going to pan out over the next 24hrs? More rain than snow??
This did not shrink today
It was nice to get a week or so of winter temps and weather this month. Spring seems to be here now,, 70 degrees on my porch right now. Saw a couple mosquitos last night while out on the deck grilling steaks. Might have to mow the lawn next week..
crgildart wrote:
It was nice to get a week or so of winter temps and weather this month. Spring seems to be here now,, 70 degrees on my porch right now. Saw a couple mosquitos last night while out on the deck grilling steaks. Might have to mow the lawn next week..
Famous last words!...check back in a couple...even down the road...then the snows of Feb...March?...then back to the lawn...
PS....went out fishing in the gulf of mexico florida yesterday....coldest water temps I have ever seen there...dead turtles everywhere..some still alive were floating on top trying to soak up any sun they could get...very sad...so was my fishing...too cold...
Oh ya, fully expecting Sunday-Monday to be skiing on bulletproof refrozen with a layer of ice from the rain Saturday that freezes Sunday then hoping the cats can smash up a couple death cookies to top that off with while they crank the guns back up to blow snow for three more days..
It could be worse. You could be in New Mexico. Sandia has had 7 inches YTD and is closed, Pajarito has had 4 inches YTD and has one run open, Taos has had 12 inches YTD and has 16 trails open (none of em black), and the winner of the most pathetic looking picture goes to Ski Cloudcroft with 13 inches ytd and one trail open (the pic says it all - but it is a beautiful sun set)
http://skicloudcroft.net/
bob wrote:
It could be worse. You could be in New Mexico. Sandia has had 7 inches YTD and is closed, Pajarito has had 4 inches YTD and has one run open, Taos has had 12 inches YTD and has 16 trails open (none of em black), and the winner of the most pathetic looking picture goes to Ski Cloudcroft with 13 inches ytd and one trail open (the pic says it all - but it is a beautiful sun set)
http://skicloudcroft.net/
That's very sad to see.
Well, I am here in the Laurels, and all of that beautiful natural snow we received during that epic cold snap has been washed away. It poured buckets of rain while the snow hangs out just to our west. The dread Ohio Valley storm has ruined our beautiful conditions. The longer that storm hangs out to our west, the less snow we'll get and the more rain will pour down. It is the reality of skiing the Mid-Atlantic.
Snowsmith - I think you are going to be happy when you wake up. Things really changed overnight.
I think these images update every "X" mins but I'm not certain. HV CAMS
bob wrote:
It could be worse. You could be in New Mexico. Sandia has had 7 inches YTD and is closed, Pajarito has had 4 inches YTD and has one run open, Taos has had 12 inches YTD and has 16 trails open (none of em black), and the winner of the most pathetic looking picture goes to Ski Cloudcroft with 13 inches ytd and one trail open (the pic says it all - but it is a beautiful sun set)
http://skicloudcroft.net/
Same thing/pattern happened back in 1977 ...it snowed in Miami, and temperatures were in the 80's in California - which was experiencing their worst drought on record.......Gerald Ford went to Vail to go skiing and there was no snow...
Anyhoot...Thx for the morning update Blue Don...let it snow!!...back to below 0 tonite in Canaan,,,ouch!
During back half of my rain drenched drive to the Laurels, the temperature dropped from freaking 67 to 33. After dinner and a healthy amount of Pinot noir, I fell asleep. So it was nice to see that our rain saturated snow base has a nice coating of snow. When it is colder than normal here, it is warmer than normal somewhere else. We we lucky this year to be on the colder side. Next week looks good. Please, no more Ohio Valley storms.
My sister's home mountain is Mt. Ashland in Oregon and they haven't even opened for the season. They've received 63" of snow this season, but currently 0" base at 7,533'. She's been doing some skinning, but says you have to be ready to chase the storms when they roll thru. I had to laugh and tell her thats standard procedure around here. She's a big fan of Whitegrass & Canaan Valley and wasn't happy when I sent here this. http://www.instagram.com/p/Bdhsxs4lJqT/?tagged=canaanvalley
fishnski wrote:
Same thing/pattern happened back in 1977 ...it snowed in Miami, and temperatures were in the 80's in California - which was experiencing their worst drought on record.......Gerald Ford went to Vail to go skiing and there was no snow...
Anyhoot...Thx for the morning update Blue Don...let it snow!!...back to below 0 tonite in Canaan,,,ouch!
Yes, I remember that. However.. Last season we skied WRODs in CV when it was still February.. Season before that we skied CV in the rain mid February slightly more terrain than WROD.. Yes, 5 years ago we skied April after a giant dump of wet snow that allowed places to re open. However, since this thread is about climate and not weather. Let's look at the pattern. Yes, I realize that PNW is still getting slammed, even bigger and better but the rain snow line is moving higher up and farther north without a doubt.. faster than I had hoped it would..
Could DCSKI print a glossery? A list of abbreviations and acronyms. I.e - What's "WROD"? What's "PNW"? All I know is "WTF" = Why-The-Face" ! LOL
#$%& happens....at least this year so far...
I copied that picture of the thurs.- fri. Snowfall prediction for the Sierra. Apparently it’s a screenshot. I’d be most grateful for the live link. Thanks in advance. Hope you enjoyed the recent weather in the Alpps.
Hey Denis..sorry it took awhile to get back.....I found that from NWS Sacremento Twitter feed.....
https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Once on the twitter site just scroll down till you find it..its 2 days old now....should be a great site for you to follow incase you dont allready know about it...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DThdyEaV4AA58xS.jpg
Snow in the Sahara? Whew, thank God! That certainly indicates that everything going on with the climate is perfectly normal and not at all chaotic!
Looking forward to a powder day down in central NC tomorrow. Neighborhood skiing FTW! Then back up in to the 60s Friday. Snow doesn't seen to hang around as long as it used to pretty much everywhere south of the PNW.. and northern Vermont. Steamboat is doing OK though..
crgildart wrote:
Snow in the Sahara? Whew, thank God! That certainly indicates that everything going on with the climate is perfectly normal and not at all chaotic!
Yeah..pretty normal I guess but its as cold as it gets up north in the cold factories of Siberia...71 below 0 is serious buisness....
Deep southern snow....quit your doom n gloom...Smile!
gonna Snow at your house tomorrow CDart!...then all the way down to the beach at my house in Wilmington,nc....Sled the overpasses!!!
Yeah, but you cannot ski in the bayou ! The snow has been misplaced to where they don't need it or don't want it. Can we ski on those sand dunes at Kitty Hawk?
Eastern Half Winter making a comeback?...Put that mower back in the shed CDart!......
Not here. Nice blast of winter middle of last week,, then the A/C was back on Saturday, A foot of snow melted to nothing in under 48 hours. Rain coming tomorrow with temps in the 70s later this week. Getting more gas for the lawn mower. Maybe if I got an electric mower it would fix everything everywhere??
fishnski wrote:
Eastern Half Winter making a comeback?...Put that mower back in the shed CDart!......
can anyone see the image I posted?...I see all my posted images from my laptop but I only see a 3rd of them from my Phone...Im guessing that alot of my posts might be confusing if no one can see the posted images.....
Things in Colorado remain pretty grim. If things don't change, early season endings are certainly possible.
" As dismal scenes from Crested Butte and Telluride can attest, the southern mountains are faring the worst. The latest data show two river basins in the southwest corner of the state ”” the Upper Rio Grande and the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan ”” at 34 and 36 percent of average snowpack, respectively. The Gunnison basin to the north isn't doing much better at 47 percent of historical snow-water equivalent.
The Upper Colorado River basin, which includes Summit County, is currently at a respectable 75 percent of average, owing partly to a La Niña affect that has been pushing storms northward."
https://www.summitdaily.com/news/regional/colorado-snowpack-is-historically-low-but-summit-county-is-faring-better-than-most/
Skiing this weekend in flood warnings might be the last of 100% open terrain south of northern PA. Temps in the 50s and higher all next week with more hard rain hitting Wednesday through Friday returning again Sunday. If places stick to their no snow making after Preaident's Day NC, VA, and some of PA are probably done in two weeks.
My friends and I are skiing Taos and Telluride in the next couple weeks. Picked the dates months ago. 6+ inches in both places this weekend, with a little more midweek. We'll take it!
marzNC wrote:
My friends and I are skiing Taos and Telluride in the next couple weeks. Picked the dates months ago. 6+ inches in both places this weekend, with a little more midweek. We'll take it!
Steamboat would have been the best place to book this season.. at least so far. Every place else out west has been either hugely disappointing or at least below average..
crgildart wrote:
Skiing this weekend in flood warnings might be the last of 100% open terrain south of northern PA. Temps in the 50s and higher all next week with more hard rain hitting Wednesday through Friday returning again Sunday. If places stick to their no snow making after Preaident's Day NC, VA, and some of PA are probably done in two weeks.
Wintergreen (and Massanutten as well, I think - maybe Marznc can chime in) has made snow in March before when conditions allow. Hopefully that will be the case this year.
wgo wrote:
crgildart wrote:
Skiing this weekend in flood warnings might be the last of 100% open terrain south of northern PA. Temps in the 50s and higher all next week with more hard rain hitting Wednesday through Friday returning again Sunday. If places stick to their no snow making after Preaident's Day NC, VA, and some of PA are probably done in two weeks.
Wintergreen (and Massanutten as well, I think - maybe Marznc can chime in) has made snow in March before when conditions allow. Hopefully that will be the case this year.
Well nobody will be able to blame the drought for lack of snow making anymore this season.. Long range forecast isn't showing any temps low enough to blow. I'd like to get one more day trip in where actual skiing happens since last week and this week are looking like washouts but for different reasons.. last week figurative, this weekend literal!
wgo wrote:
crgildart wrote:
Skiing this weekend in flood warnings might be the last of 100% open terrain south of northern PA. Temps in the 50s and higher all next week with more hard rain hitting Wednesday through Friday returning again Sunday. If places stick to their no snow making after Preaident's Day NC, VA, and some of PA are probably done in two weeks.
Wintergreen (and Massanutten as well, I think - maybe Marznc can chime in) has made snow in March before when conditions allow. Hopefully that will be the case this year.
Pretty sure Massanutten is hosting PSIA clinics again in late Feb. I expect snowmaking to continue into early March. Wouldn't be surprised if staying open longer than Wintergreen is an unstated goal with the new water supply.
Unfortunately I think the local resorts have seen their last good period of skiing for the Winter. There were some really good conditions at Liberty and Whitetail this week on the days after they made snow, but definitely no snow making weather on the horizon and when/if the cold does come it will be like last year where it was too late. So little natural snow again for the areas outside of WV, Wisp and Western/Northern PA. Luckily it's been cold enough for stretches for good snow making at all resorts, but like last year for many the season will end with a huge whimper.
Fish, Where are you? We need some good climate news!
MorganB aka The Colonel
The Colonel wrote:
Fish, Where are you? We need some good climate news!
MorganB aka The Colonel
No good *weather news in the near future.
David wrote:
The Colonel wrote:
Fish, Where are you? We need some good climate news!
MorganB aka The Colonel
No good *weather news in the near future.
I new somebody would say that I wasnt posting because of warmer weather..hey..I was having a fantastic 2 weeks of Snow and cold up in the land of Canaan and surrounding Alpps and I didnt post then...its all weather to me...good bad or just plain ugly its all about the pattern...plenty of reports of cold and misery around the world while we swing warmer here in the East....
meanwhile..it aint over till the Fat Lady in the Tight Ski pants sings!....
Above the line bad for the East....below the line good..
Winter energizer bunny Rabbit keeps on druming along....who will try to stay open the longest?....It might snow further south into NC this April....And I just saw where Wildcat,Nh is 100% open and in great shape....
Someone needs to call SIA and the golf indisutry equivilant and tell them ski season is now from January through April instead of mid November through mid March.
April Fools!!!....NOT...wish we had this 1sr week of Janurary!
The four lowest maximum extents in the satellite record have all occurred in the past four years. NSIDC will post a detailed analysis of the 2017 to 2018 winter sea ice conditions in our regular monthly post in early April.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
tons of heat released from this last record El Nino kept the ice from forming in the Berring sea plus massive storms made it worse pushing the ice back in and breaking it up...whats normal?
fishnski wrote:
...whats normal?
What's normal? For modern human times look at the past 500 years. In the end it doesn't matter what's normal. Is the climate warming at slightly exponetially increasing rates each year as predicted? Even most of the skeptics of the past 10 years are now saying yes but maybe we aren't causing it.. or we are and should just deal with it.
Crgildart>What's normal? For modern human times look at the past 500 years. In the end it doesn't matter what's normal. Is the climate warming at slightly exponetially increasing rates each year as predicted? Even most of the skeptics of the past 10 years are now saying yes but maybe we aren't causing it.. or we are and should just deal with it.<
Here’s a tale of once in my lifetime when a resource was considered inexhaustible and humans believed that their activities could never alter the course of nature. Plus, it is a great read.
I grew up in Boston. My grandfather in Newfoundland, where he was a commercial cod fisherman, on the Grand Banks, in his youth. Along about 1960 it was announced that cod stocks were falling drastically and the catch needed to be regulated to protect the future of the fishery. The outcry from commercial fisherman was immediate, angry, and righteous. “Keep your freaking regulations off our business. The cod have always been there and they always will.” It was actually too late. The cod fishery of the North Atlantic never recovered to even a fraction of what it had been. Today it is understood that the cod’s former place in the complex web of ocean life has been displaced by other species that moved in to their niche and cod will never again occupy that place.
# Just for the record, I am not a commercial fisherman, just a fly fisherman whose livelihood fortunately doesn’t depend on fishing skill. However, I ran NASA’s planetary atmospheres research program for 10 years.
Denis wrote:
# Just for the record, I am not a commercial fisherman, just a fly fisherman whose livelihood fortunately doesn’t depend on fishing skill. However, I ran NASA’s planetary atmospheres research program for 10 years.
How long before we look like Venus? More importantly, what will ski season look like for our great grand kids?
To become another Venus? A long time, perhaps a significant fraction of a billion years, and probably long after we humans have ended the evolutionary experiment with intelligence.
Skiing for the next few generations will likely become more and more variable. If it snows pounce on it.
ZZZZ. ZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzx ZzzzzzzzzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzZZZZZZ. Oh just woke up. Had a nightmare that DCSKI was changed to DCSoapbox where instead of talking about skiing folks got up their soap box and brow beat us into looking at the world the way they look at. Kind of reminded me of my opinionated, cranky drunk uncle on Thanksgiving. If I only had DCSKI on Thanksgiving I could have escaped from Uncle Cranky. I am glad we have DCSKI so we can escape from the Uncle Crankys of the world although he may work for FoxNews or MSNBC. He was that annoying.
fishnski wrote:
Im confused...this was my first post back on this thread in a long time...its about skiing so you must be talking about CDart or Denis being on their "Soapbox"?...Winter energizer bunny Rabbit keeps on druming along....who will try to stay open the longest?....It might snow further south into NC this April....And I just saw where Wildcat,Nh is 100% open and in great shape....
snowsmith wrote:
ZZZZ. ZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzx ZzzzzzzzzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzZZZZZZ. Oh just woke up. Had a nightmare that DCSKI was changed to DCSoapbox where instead of talking about skiing folks got up their soap box and brow beat us into looking at the world the way they look at. Kind of reminded me of my opinionated, cranky drunk uncle on Thanksgiving. If I only had DCSKI on Thanksgiving I could have escaped from Uncle Cranky. I am glad we have DCSKI so we can escape from the Uncle Crankys of the world although he may work for FoxNews or MSNBC. He was that annoying.
Appaently you're still asleep because you didn't read the parts where we're talking about the future of SKIING, or lack of it around these parts at least on a consistant and reliable/predictable season.
Fishnski what are the models saying this morning about the snow chances and amount possibilities for Saturday?
We're going in a 3 day hike in Uwharri later this month. Hoping we won't be post holing all the way but let me know if we should be packing A/T or XC gear just in case..
crgildart wrote:
snowsmith wrote:
ZZZZ. ZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzx ZzzzzzzzzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzZZZZZZ. Oh just woke up. Had a nightmare that DCSKI was changed to DCSoapbox where instead of talking about skiing folks got up their soap box and brow beat us into looking at the world the way they look at. Kind of reminded me of my opinionated, cranky drunk uncle on Thanksgiving. If I only had DCSKI on Thanksgiving I could have escaped from Uncle Cranky. I am glad we have DCSKI so we can escape from the Uncle Crankys of the world although he may work for FoxNews or MSNBC. He was that annoying.
Appaently you're still asleep because you didn't read the parts where we're talking about the future of SKIING, or lack of it around these parts at least on a consistant and reliable/predictable season.
👠♥ ♥:😠:😠♥ ♥ :😠👠ðŸ‘
Skiing is OVER...time for Spring Baseball!!!..... Record coldest @Twins home game is 31° April 17, 2014. Forecast at first pitch Saturday is 26°...
Tahoe will be getting a foot of snow so above headline about skiing over is fake news...anyway you look at it its amazing we have the word snow in our vocabulary anymore...96 years ago when my great grandfather Smelllikefishnskunk was posting on DChopetobeSki he posted this....
The Arctic seems to be warming up. Reports from fisherman, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas about Spitzbergen and the eastern Arctic, all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, and hitherto underheard-of high temperatures in that part of the earth’s surface.
In August, 1922, the Norwegian Department of Commerce sent an expedition to Spitzbergen and Bear Island under the leadership of Dr. Adolf Hoel, lecturer on geology at the University of Christiania. Its purpose was to survey and chart the lands adjacent to the Norwegian mines on those islands, take soundings of the adjacent waters, and make other oceanographic investigations.
Ice conditions were exceptional. In fact, so little ice has never before been noted. The expedition all but established a record, sailing as far north as 81° 29”² in ice-free water. This is the farthest north ever reached with modern oceanographic apparatus.
The character of the waters of the great polar basin has heretofore been practically unknown. Dr. Hoel reports that he made a section of the Gulf Stream at 81° north latitude and took soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters. These show the Gulf Stream very warm, and it could be traced as a surface current till beyond the 81st parallel. The warmth of the waters makes it probable that the favorable ice conditions will continue for some time.
In connection with Dr. Hoel’s report, it is of interest to note the unusually warm summer in Arctic Norway and the observations of Capt. Martin Ingebrigsten, who has sailed the eastern Arctic for 54 years past. He says that he first noted warmer conditions in 1918, that since that time it has steadily gotten warmer, and that to-day the Arctic of that region is not recognizable as the same region of 1868 to 1917.
Many old landmarks are so changed as to be unrecognizable. Where formerly great masses of ice were found, there are now often moraines, accumulations of earth and stones. At many points where glaciers formerly extended far into the sea they have entirely disappeared.
fishnski wrote:
Tahoe will be getting a foot of snow so above headline about skiing over is fake news...anyway you look at it its amazing we have the word snow in our vocabulary anymore...96 years ago when my great grandfather Smelllikefishnskunk was posting on DChopetobeSki he posted this....
The Arctic seems to be warming up. Reports from fisherman, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas about Spitzbergen and the eastern Arctic, all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, and hitherto underheard-of high temperatures in that part of the earth’s surface.
In August, 1922, the Norwegian Department of Commerce sent an expedition to Spitzbergen and Bear Island under the leadership of Dr. Adolf Hoel, lecturer on geology at the University of Christiania. Its purpose was to survey and chart the lands adjacent to the Norwegian mines on those islands, take soundings of the adjacent waters, and make other oceanographic investigations.
Ice conditions were exceptional. In fact, so little ice has never before been noted. The expedition all but established a record, sailing as far north as 81° 29”² in ice-free water. This is the farthest north ever reached with modern oceanographic apparatus.
The character of the waters of the great polar basin has heretofore been practically unknown. Dr. Hoel reports that he made a section of the Gulf Stream at 81° north latitude and took soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters. These show the Gulf Stream very warm, and it could be traced as a surface current till beyond the 81st parallel. The warmth of the waters makes it probable that the favorable ice conditions will continue for some time.
In connection with Dr. Hoel’s report, it is of interest to note the unusually warm summer in Arctic Norway and the observations of Capt. Martin Ingebrigsten, who has sailed the eastern Arctic for 54 years past. He says that he first noted warmer conditions in 1918, that since that time it has steadily gotten warmer, and that to-day the Arctic of that region is not recognizable as the same region of 1868 to 1917.
Many old landmarks are so changed as to be unrecognizable. Where formerly great masses of ice were found, there are now often moraines, accumulations of earth and stones. At many points where glaciers formerly extended far into the sea they have entirely disappeared.
Wow, just 30 years after The Industrial Revolution really took off globally in the wake of WWI and before anyone was doing anything at all about emmissions monitoring or filtering. Coincidence??
Tornado warnings in MPLS earlier this week. Blizzard warnings tonight. Baseball openers snowed out all over the place. What a chaotic Spring indeed!
Average Base DepthsSnowmaking: 30" - 60"........Natural Snow: 8" - 30".......Mt. Mansfield Stake: 86"
And here is Wildcat,NH................................"We're keeping our eye on tonight's weather forecast but honestly the reports are all over the place, some are calling for up to a foot of snow by Monday morning others say just a few inches. This time of year, at our elevation, it can be tough to really say what we're looking at. But as soon as we have anything to report you know we'll be updating this snow report as well as our social media with the latest info. Fingers crossed we get the heavier end of that forecast because we would love to ski into May and we'd especially love to do it with a ton of fresh snow covering our trails. So everyone out there, please do your snow dances. As of now, we plan to operate daily until April 22 (weather permitting). After then, we will operate weekends only as long as conditions allow."...........................whats going on at J Peak?........Anyhoot...this is the latest State of Climate affecting..effecting?...Impacting end of season ski conditions up in NE..... ***
Wildcat is directly across Pinkham Notch from Mt. Washington. When skiing on a sunny day at wildcat you can look directly into the famous ravines on Big George, Gulf of Slides, Tuckerman and Huntington. All of them are skied. In May of 1997, Mt. Washington got a record 100” of snow and I skied the Gulf of Slides on the weekend of June 7, our anniversary. How does that work, you may ask. Our daughter was expecting her first child, our first grandchild and she called my wife in tears, “mom none of my friends have planned a baby shower, can you have one for me”. Of course she agreed. The only date that worked was June 7. Great, I said, my first baby shower will be for my own daughter and on our anniversary too. “Oh no. Fathers don’t go, your job is to disappear.” Hmm, said I, I could disappear at Mt. Washington as easily as I could disappear in the neighborhood. I skied that weekend, and the grandson was born 2 weeks later. BTW, he skied Tuckerman from the top at age 9.
I don’t expect a repeat of 97, but this has been an excellent snow year for the big mountain and it should have an excellent spring skiing season.
https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/mount-washington-weather.aspx
BTW, don’t go there yet. It’s still winter. The spring corn cycle has to be well established; freezing nights and warm sunny days for a couple of weeks. You need to check this daily for several weeks,
You can say that again Denis! :-P
I'm not a very big fan of spring skiing. You've got to get out early to start out on bulletproof refrozen granite. By mid morning it starts to get pretty nice in some spots but still ice in the shade. By lunch time, however, it's all slop and puddles. I'll do that for a few hours a few days. But, after that I'm not driving three hours to do it again when other spring and summer activity venues are opening up.
Way up high, and farther north you might still be getting "good" conditions for the better part of the ski day. Down here after mid February, it's almost always snot and slush by noon.
Watched some video of Washington/Tucks the other day. It was brutal, refrozen ruts all over the place to the point not even the best skiers could turn or traverse across them. No thanks!
It's great that New England is having a good late season. The last 3 years have been bad. I had to cancel my Killington vacation in 2016 since they only had 30 trails open for my late February trip. Last year I tried Killington again and it rained and went above 60 degrees 2 days. They only had 60+ trails open. Then it got cold and all that wet snow froze. They also had some serious flooding this year during balmy, Rainey February which wiped out the great snow conditions from our great January. Unfortunately only us diehards ski this time of year, thus this short term cold and snow is a little late. It went up to 85 at my house today so skiing was not on my mind. It's been a strange year.... remember early in the year Colorado had warm weather and very little terrain open while back east we finally got a long stretch of cold weather. Then came February and it switched and we came very close to a total meltdown. Then the snowy March and skiing till April. Not perfect but certainly better than the last 2 abysmal years.
Just a pleasant reminder during all these news reports of Earth melting down to Calm...Inflame?..everyone down.....Hope everyone is having a nice summer....I just got back from 3.5 weeks at Canaan...highs ranged from 68 to 82 (2900' )..much cooler higher up!.....saw my breath a few mornings which was really COOL after the high 80's and 90's down at the beach in NC.......Sad to see waist high grass and a dead Timberline....
exactley average Temps.....isn't that amazing?.....the ocean between the Caribbean and Africa....Hurricane Alley is way below normal right now...less fuel for the storms....
More science shit. Why should anyone believe this? It's from a year ago and things have already cooled off a lot since then,
camp wrote:
More science shit. Why should anyone believe this? It's from a year ago and things have already cooled off a lot since then,
indeed - what rot; stupid scientists - ahem
That is probably one of the stupidest articles ive read yet Crush....thx for sharing....
Meanwhile watching PBS..BBC world news...ABC news this evening I thought I was watching the END of the World...meanwhile back in reality............todays high temp anomaly....
I read 4 fake news Headlines today....so stupid but to the dumb and dumber..ALARMING!....here is one of them....
HURRICANE HECTOR ON COLLISION COURSE WITH HAWAII AND COULD HIT NEAR VOLCANO!!!..LOL...ck out the track...
1 more....2018 hurricane fcast is for 1 to 4 major hurricanes which is well below average but here are the headlines for ya...
Still trending warmer and wetter.. But, it got cold and snowed some wo we're all gonna be fine for now.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-monitoring/
We did set a record here in Maryland today..... the wettest year ever recorded. Over 62 inches of rain! And we still have a month and a half to go. Not sure what this weather pattern means for this winter. There has been a lot of storms moving up the Ohio Valley which means we’re on the warm side. Although today we got 3” inches of snow in Baltimore... very unusual. I would be happy if we had a repeat of last winter minus the 2nd half of February. March was great. This year we’ll ski the day after Turkey Day , one of the earliest starts of the ski season ( given the early Thanksgiving) in memory. I’ve heard 2 differing long range winter forecasts, one warm, one cold. I want to believe the cold oneðŸ˜.
Ok just passing through. So now I see that the number of posts in a thread is limited?
The reason I mention it is I really wanted to respond to @kemperski regarding his criticism of Canaan Valley Resort for setting an opening date, making snow whenever possible and opening when they said they will, only it seems the Timberlies Future thread is no longer receiving posts, too popular I guess. I skied at Snowshoe on Friday and it was foggy, warm, wet but not raining and there were about twelve people riding the three lifts they had open. I looked for you kemperski 😛.
jimmy wrote:
The reason I mention it is I really wanted to respond to @kemperski regarding his criticism of Canaan Valley Resort for setting an opening date, making snow whenever possible and opening when they said they will, only it seems the Timberlies Future thread is no longer receiving posts, too popular I guess. I skied at Snowshoe on Friday and it was foggy, warm, wet but not raining and there were about twelve people riding the three lifts they had open. I looked for you kemperski 😛.
I feel so misunderstood! But seriously, I could have expressed myself better. CVR set a date and they are sticking to it and that's fine , but when they have the conditions to open later this week I wish they would. Others in NC and VA will with likely less favorable conditions. I love CVR and know there are two approaches to opening, soon even with less or later hopefully with more
The Irony would be if T-line is spinning lifts this Fri and CVR is not even after more snowmaking and possibly some natural. I want them both open otherwise a five hour drive for me doesn't make sense.
Yours, another selfish flatlander
footnote:
Gosh I hope this thread can survive the traffic, pity if something happened to it (cue Monty Python gangsters)
Well done. I think we only have 44 posts to go
Might I suggest trump picking up a rake to fix this issue in california?
kemperski wrote:
Well done. I think we only have 44 posts to go
Might I suggest trump picking up a rake to fix this issue in california?
Ask and you shall receive.
That man is an absolute hero
only 31 more to go
Might I just say how foolish it is for tree hugging liberals to pretend that anything is wrong 'round here.... I'm 55 yrs old and any change I've seen is purely geographic .. in Texas... in England.. in North Carolina...
silly me
I will say though that when I listen to Trump discuss THE STATE OF THE CLIMATE (see, topical) that I wonder about the state of reason
hey kemperski were you around when “the untopic” was the topic? Good times, it went over the limit too. It was a handy place to drop something thoughtful that really doesn’t fit anywhere, kind of like this. So how was the opening day party Friday? Will there be another one in the future? Gotta run, carry on.
Jimmy I don't get it about the opening day Friday? I really don't, I was here in NC on a roof. I hope to be skiing somewhere next Friday before heading to colorado Monday,,
I did miss the untopic,
fishnski wrote:
State of the climate has suggested a storm for the East/SE on the 9th..3 days in a row its popped up in different shapes..sizes..and direction on multiple Weather models....stay tuned!
anybody remember this post from a couple of days ago?...Starting to get some play now on Social media...add the snow this week up in th Wv Alpps to next weekends potential...NC could get smacked hard if they can hold the cold...get your popcorn!...hey..if it doesn't pan out ya got some good popcorn!
David wrote:
kemperski wrote:
Well done. I think we only have 44 posts to go
Might I suggest trump picking up a rake to fix this issue in california?
Ask and you shall receive.
kemperski wrote:
I will say though that when I listen to Trump discuss THE STATE OF THE CLIMATE (see, topical) that I wonder about the state of reason
- Guys! Nice! Thank you so much for addressing the elephant in the frickin' dining room! You rule - and at least we (NV dems) turned this state (NV) 90% blue -- ooooh sorry Scott but you know me it had to come out. Crazy Crush wacko --
its cold in Russia Russia RUSSIA....Here..have a Snicker bar...Better?
Fish, have you seen a movie called Downsizing with Matt Damon? It's really unusual, part sci-fi, part satire/comedy, but also touches on some serious themes including environmentalism. Interesting,original film and entertaining no matter where you stand on that issue.
The movie costars are Bruce Willis, Sly Stallone and Clint Eastwood brings back his famous empty chair interview of Obama in a tour de force performance about the fossil fuel industry rescuing us from greedy environmentalists. All with a thought provoking, dance beat sound track by Ted Nugent. Two thumbs up from SnowsmithðŸ˜.
Now, what about that snowstorm?
Dayum..Mr Smith + Clint + Stallone + Willis + JimK?..hell yeh..Im in!!!.....
Ive been waiting for the new upgraded GFS Model 18Z to come out but the FV3 is stuck somehow and is delayed.....
here is the latest Euro model accumulated precip model fcast. (below)..ok sorry..it wont let me post it...blocking it....anyhoot...its showing as much as 4 inches of liquid eqivalent..we have to guess what liquid to snow ratio will work with this but if we use a 10 to 1 ratio we are talking a Dump for NC...the US model had been bringing up the snow field further up north...maybe giving Snowshoe 8 inches or so but its looking like a SEast storm...Dunno..at 1 time it looked like downtown DC could get a dump....the system has not even come ashore..it was still offshore alaska this morn!..I have been seeing it on the models for 5 days now and posted about it a few days ago..
Wow it might snow for a couple days. Good to see everyhing's totally fixed and/or fake news.. Still trying to figure out how the Chinese started it all though..
Good News!!
this thread only has 18 posts left till lock down!
fourteen .. why?
(sorry, I really couldm't resist)
kemperski wrote:
fourteen .. why?
(sorry, I really couldm't resist)
Yeah, I pretty much set you up for that one. ;)
Pablo Picasso rating a balogna on rye.
Thought terry wore #12?....im being Dumb...easymoney....
Mount mitchell at close to 7000' elevation will be Buried.....should beat this 10 to 1 ratio map due to the elevation...
fishnski wrote:
2 feet up at Sugar Mountain reported so far this AM and its still snowing...icing on the cake...im sure Mt Michell got over 30...has anybody out there seen any totals from the big peaks in the Smokies?...
I just checked. Sugar reported 20". Beech reported 23". Last night they were reporting about 12". I've seen better there but that's going to pack down nice to help them try to avoid the Christmas week disasters they've seen several of the past recent seasons.
http://www.skisoutheast.com/snow-reports/#nc
The difference between "weather:" and "climate" is exactly this. Weather delivers a massive 2 day snow storm that's epically bigger and better than the norm. Climate causes it all to melt over the next week/month preventing it from being of nearly as useful as it had been when the average temp was two degrees cooler. Looks like more "weather" coming this weekend in the form of rain up there..
Ok, we've had storms hit north and south of the DC area resorts so far. When is it going to be our turn?
crgildart wrote:
The difference between "weather:" and "climate" is exactly this. Weather delivers a massive 2 day snow storm that's epically bigger and better than the norm. Climate causes it all to melt over the next week/month preventing it from being of nearly as useful as it had been when the average temp was two degrees cooler. Looks like more "weather" coming this weekend in the form of rain up there..
Can we just be happy that our southern friends got a 2 foot dump. Regardless of climate, it is after all Carolina and thus it won’t probably hang around for long. I wish we had 5,000+ foot mountains up here in Yankee country. It would be awesome.
snowsmith wrote:
crgildart wrote:
The difference between "weather:" and "climate" is exactly this. Weather delivers a massive 2 day snow storm that's epically bigger and better than the norm. Climate causes it all to melt over the next week/month preventing it from being of nearly as useful as it had been when the average temp was two degrees cooler. Looks like more "weather" coming this weekend in the form of rain up there..
Can we just be happy that our southern friends got a 2 foot dump. Regardless of climate, it is after all Carolina and thus it won’t probably hang around for long. I wish we had 5,000+ foot mountains up here in Yankee country. It would be awesome.
It was fun. I imagine that two degrees colder and I'd have had well over two feet instead of 14" in my yard. It only snowed from midnight until about noon then turned to rain, LOTS of rain from Sunday afternoon until Monday morning. We got another 3 inches of snow Monday morning when the second cold front arrived.
Well I was at Sugar for the "epic" dump and it reminded me of why I love the Valley so much. I knew they would groom it down but it was hard to imagine that the ENTIRE day, when they were getting free refills and the low visibility associated with such a great storm , they would run EVERY snow gun , it was a crapshow, and what an amazing oppurtunity missed, once in a life time storm and they couldn't relent for an 8 hour window,
It was fun. I imagine that two degrees colder and I'd have had well over two feet instead of 14" in my yard. It only snowed from midnight until about noon then turned to rain, LOTS of rain from Sunday afternoon until Monday morning. We got another 3 inches of snow Monday morning when the second cold front arrived.
"............................... You live at around 350 feet above sealevel and at a latitude of about 75 miles north of Los Angeles...lucky it even Snowed!....im out of tissues for ur weather woe issues!....(Maximum posts per thread (300) exceeded -- please consider starting a new thread!)
