Well Senior I'm a medicare guy so we aren't so far apart in age. The mid Atlantic has always been hit or miss for snow. Being a young guy in the 60's & 70's I saw a lot of cold and snow. It wasn't until the mid to late 70's that I discovered skiing. I remember skiing at Snowshoe in mid April with a deep base. Those days are gone for now in the cycle we are currently in.
I moved to South Lake Tahoe in 1979 chasing big snow. My first year at Heavenly it didn't open till the week after the Super Bowl or the end of January. I skied for 3 months that year. The next year I purchased a mid week pass at Kirkwood skied from early November till June over 100 days and a record snowfall of 65' at my home resort.
In this El Niño season we will be hit or miss but if this weekends northern jet stream arrives roughly 24 hours early or if it arrives tomorrow we would be looking at widespread 2'+ totals from the mid Atlantic to New England.
The season is still early but around here it is short. My wife and I are heading to Tahoe & Mammoth this spring. If you're planning on a longer season you need to go west. We have flown to Colorado the past 2 springs where we skied and most places out west have been excellent!
I'm at Snowshoe this weekend there is a 40" base with about 1/3 trails open. Expecting rain on Sunday turning to 5"+ snow. The lake effect snow makes the difference here one of the reasons we bought a place up here 10 years ago. I'm about snow quality and with the excellent snow making and natural you can't beat it here.
Not taking anything away from Cannan or Timberline. Many great days there too!
I do remember being on the C&O canal ice skating. Had both figure & hockey skates. We did a lot of skating back in the day before any of us had a drivers license. Our parents would drive a bunch of us guys & we would meet a bunch of girls at the outdoor rink on a Friday night. It was great fun!
I remember first time going to Blue Knob. The snow walls as you went up the mountain reminded me of some of the NY resorts I went to back in the day.
Thank goodness for the advances in snowmaking and grooming. I agree with the 4K elevation locally being the key.
Hello, I enjoy weather and sensors. I have a winter weather cert from NOAA (10 hours of training).
#1 a forecast can be off by 30%.
I have 25 years of weather data for mid Atlantic.
Variables are extensive from orthographic lift to micro climates. 5 degrees makes a difference in snowmaking.
We need low humidity and sustained cold blocking for optimum snowmaking.
Resorts have invested in snowmaking, and can make 35% more in a given timeframe then 20 years ago. Quality is much better. ( I did not take ugly photos for 25 years, but I can remember skiing around mud. Rocks were the norm.)
------
Long range I look for patterns:
We are in a drought. The NAO is positive we need negative to have cold air blocking on the east coast.
AO we need negative to show the cold being released from the arctic circle.
Gets better in 2 weeks.
Numbers:
a given season is 90 - 100 days - 12 Weeks +
I have gotten in 25 days + every year. I live 1 hr. away.
Most ski under 10 days a season. 25% go more.
12% have switched to Mid Week
a week of 7 days one days will be a prime day to ski. 2 maybe not the best days.
My 2 cents with my tools and tricks.
Happy Holidays
Celebrate every day. Smile
Zardog
Hi When Minnesota cancels the first time the outdoor ice show we know what we have coming Mild.
I have remote work and can ski mid week and pick the best day or 2 of the week.
Last year open at liberty was the first week of January and it took a month to have a good base and premium surface. (looked at my vid and blog for the data)
NAO an AO look for a cold soon and sustained enough to get more open. end of 1st week of January 2024.
I've been reading that the meteorological forces that maintain the Polar Vortex will weaken and colder air will drop south to envelop the Northeast beginning in January. Let's hope so.
two more days of blah, then Snow coming in!!! Timberline going strong. Night skiing till 8pm this week too!
Laurel Hill Crazie wrote:
I've been reading that the meteorological forces that maintain the Polar Vortex will weaken and colder air will drop south to envelop the Northeast beginning in January. Let's hope so.
I feel like some version of this thread happens every year lately.
I went to HV yesterday with my kids, because God bless them, they just wanted to ski. There were a literal handful of other people there with us.
It's depressing. And once again the resorts have lost a huge chunk of what should be one of the biggest weeks of the year.
It's actually borderline miraculous that they've stayed open, though open is a kind word.
The middle Atlantic is changing no doubt about it. The last multiple years has scene battles with extreme cold and extreme warm. I believe this will be the norm. It seems to be wait until next week or next month then nothing happens. I’m not in the industry so not sure how long the marginal resorts can hang on. I definitely feel for the owners. They probably look at each season as this is the one. The future is 4K elevation, those below that are going to struggle. Being in this area since 67 it has definitely changed. It just doesn’t stay cold for long periods of time. The creeks don’t even freeze solid like they use too. Some will say that the average temps are not much different but there is a huge difference with a steady average of 32 compared to a 32 average that has 64 max and a zero low. I hope I’m dead wrong, definitely want to ski, but I’m not skiing on a greens with a 1000 skiers. There is a lot of talk about the vortex busting out in 2 weeks, turning this around. As my Mom would always say, “ believe it when you see it “ snow towel is still on the rack, come on ☃️❄️
Agreed. Honestly, I don't see how any of the mid-Atlantic ski areas outside the upslope survive as ski areas. I'm guessing more will transition to snow tubing only (like Hawks Nest, NC). I can't see how it makes economic sense for places like Whitetail and Wintergreen to invest in being 90-100% open for skiing only a month or two a year, if that. Smaller places like Bryce and Sapphire might fare better.
SeniorSki wrote:
The middle Atlantic is changing no doubt about it. The last multiple years has scene battles with extreme cold and extreme warm. I believe this will be the norm. It seems to be wait until next week or next month then nothing happens. I’m not in the industry so not sure how long the marginal resorts can hang on. I definitely feel for the owners. They probably look at each season as this is the one. The future is 4K elevation, those below that are going to struggle. Being in this area since 67 it has definitely changed. It just doesn’t stay cold for long periods of time. The creeks don’t even freeze solid like they use too. Some will say that the average temps are not much different but there is a huge difference with a steady average of 32 compared to a 32 average that has 64 max and a zero low. I hope I’m dead wrong, definitely want to ski, but I’m not skiing on a greens with a 1000 skiers. There is a lot of talk about the vortex busting out in 2 weeks, turning this around. As my Mom would always say, “ believe it when you see it “ snow towel is still on the rack, come on ☃️❄️
Sadly some Western resorts that have thought outside the box for a much longer period of time have just recently been closing down bike parks because of losing huge lawsuits.
Heck, 7S never reopened theirs after covid and at least around me they are the closest thing to a legitimate resort.
SeniorSki wrote:
They will have to think out of the box, such as adding mt biking, coasters, zip lines, and adventure parks. Massanutten makes it work with all of the above, I don’t think they have a coaster? Plus a water park.I don’t have a clue on numbers but maybe these resorts do ok on skiing just 1 to 3 months? However that is also why prices are probably going way up.
Good Grief
Leo wrote:
I feel like some version of this thread happens every year lately.
I went to HV yesterday with my kids, because God bless them, they just wanted to ski. There were a literal handful of other people there with us.
It's depressing. And once again the resorts have lost a huge chunk of what should be one of the biggest weeks of the year.
It's actually borderline miraculous that they've stayed open, though open is a kind word.
Hey I might be in that picture! 🤣
Blue Don 1982 wrote:
Good Grief
Leo wrote:
I feel like some version of this thread happens every year lately.
I went to HV yesterday with my kids, because God bless them, they just wanted to ski. There were a literal handful of other people there with us.
It's depressing. And once again the resorts have lost a huge chunk of what should be one of the biggest weeks of the year.
It's actually borderline miraculous that they've stayed open, though open is a kind word.
Mother nature providing a small gift to Hidden Valley this morning... light but steady snow.
Radar vs reality... both weather channel and weather underground radar indicate no snow at HV or 7S. Webcam's at both areas paint a completely different picture with large flakes coming down at both places.
Vail resorts must be using AI to create snowflakes on their live webcams!
SeniorSki wrote:
They will have to think out of the box, such as adding mt biking, coasters, zip lines, and adventure parks. Massanutten makes it work with all of the above, I don’t think they have a coaster? Plus a water park.I don’t have a clue on numbers but maybe these resorts do ok on skiing just 1 to 3 months? However that is also why prices are probably going way up.
Massanutten plans to add an alpine coaster in 2024. The waterpark took 10 years to plan and build. The major upgrades for the lifts and slopes didn't start until after enough of the debt was paid for developing the waterpark. Massanutten is one of the largest timeshare resorts in the country. What's unusual is that it's now 100% owned by the ESOP, meaning by the employees.
Massanutten and Wintergreen were 4-season resorts from the day they opened. They both have plenty of private land and could add amenities as financial resources allowed. Although both have had periods when bankruptcy or financial slowdowns that made things difficult a while back.
Bryce opened their slopes before Massanutten or Wintergreen. My sense is that it's also always been a 4-season area for 2nd home owners. The golf course is as important as the slopes. Bryce has had lift-served mountain biking for a while.
The infrastructure required to have snow on the private slopes in the southeast has always been expensive in comparison to big mountains in the northeast or out west. 100% snowmaking coverage has been the only way to survive as a resort with ski lifts. NC had quite a few little ski hills start up with a surface lift in the 1960s. Without investment in snowmaking, they didn't last long. The relative cost of a day ticket has always been high compared to other regions that are colder (northern midwest, northeast), snowier, and/or have slopes on federal (Rockies) or state park land (northeast).
If anyone is interested in the history of skiing in the southeast, check out Southern Snow by Randy Johnson. He updated the book in 2019.
SeniorSki wrote:
Great info!
You're welcome!
Have you looked around at the info for Lost Areas on DCSki? That can provide some insight as to why hills in the region didn't become sustainable businesses. For instance, there is info about Blair Mountain is from Irv Naylor. He noted why creating Roundtop made more sense to him at the time. Be sure to read the comments too.
Lost Area: Blair Mountain in Dillsburg, PA
Looking like a good stretch of 24/7 snowmaking starting tomorrow, plus a few rounds of natural up in the WV hills should provide some optimal skiing conditions for the next week or more! You KNOW what to do! :)
A bonus for the new webcam at the top of the new Peak lift at Massanutten is there is a timeslapse loop. Could see that snowguns at the top of DJ were on last night for several hours before the lens was covered with snow/ice.
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday nights should have solid snowmaking windows. :-)
forecast for the week is getting better and better... you know what to do!
Daytime snowmaking at Massanutten on Jan. 1. Stick guns on under the new lift for No Hessitation. Webcam screen shot at 4:30pm.
Blue Knob DOES own all of the parcels to the east of them, so in theory they could cut a few new runs on that side. That would allow them to have runs directly next to the condos and true ski in ski out.
There isn't the vert there. Looks like they own down to Left Hand Gap Rd and Overland Pass Rd, that's only 400ft lower than the base lift right now. They could possibly do something adding a few hundred more feet, but it's be a strange trail to ride.
If they expanded east they could cut a number of 1200ft vert trails with ease. A single well placed lift could serve that entire area as well.
They need to amp up their snowmaking, invest in better lifts, and boost hospitality, then market like crazy. The entire place has a vibe of "we have no money and we don't care." Yet on a solid powder day it's the best terrain in PA without a doubt.
SeniorSki wrote:
Definitely agree those that didn’t invest got left behind. I will say there seemed to be plenty of snow in the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s that didn’t really require investment in snowmaking, basic snowmaking efforts got through. This is no longer the case. Blue Knob is a prime example. The place to ski in the 70’s and 80’s. They relied on good natural snow. Then came along White Tail and Blue, and now TL with the massive improvements with state of the art snowmaking. These resorts just killed Blue Knob on skier draw. Before Blue Knob realized what was happening it was too late. The Blue Knob draw is now very limited. Washington area skiers go to White Tail. If Blue Knob had invested in snow making they might have made a dent in the market because no one is skiing White Tail today. Where Blue Knob could have been 75/100% open by now. The only way for Blue Knob to get back in the game is to find a way to make BK a draw, and that is to cut multiple trails at 2K vertical if that is even possible? Front side like Snow Shoe or extended back side, below existing base lift start.
I hope that pans out plus some, but there are no alerts for the area and I live near 7Springs.
By now, there would be alerts for at least the ridges, but there is nothing. They dont even have the wintery mix/frozen stuff warning up anymore. Not that anyone wants that, but at least it's a signal that precipitation is coming and with enough cold that they could be wrong and we could get snow.
I'll be surprised if we actually get 5 inches of snow, and no advisory was released. Maybe because it's may play out over 24 hours, it wont have any moderate impact to the road surfaces?
I will say that they are now forcasting a high tomorrow well below where we need to be to ensure we have precip in the form of snow. Yesterday they were saying in the low 30's now high 20's as a high.
snowsmith wrote:
Grumps - weather channel show 3-5 inches on Saturday with another 1-3 on Sunday. Then snow showers on Monday. And
As of 1pm on Jan. 6, I see snow coming down on the 7Springs webcam.
The warm temps moving up into VA from the south are keeping the snow away from Massanutten and Wintergreen. No snowflakes on the Bryce webcam either.
I live at Hidden Valley and we’re experiencing heavy snow at the moment. Snowing since 10 am… forecast to continue through 6 pm, then additional snow tomorrow.
Wow, Snowshoe is getting hammered by huge flakes.
Here's a recent article from the NY Times about a study of the effect of climate change on amounts of snow, showing a reduction in some areas over recent years, including the Northeast. Read it and weep:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/10/climate/climate-change-snowpack-decline.html
Full on blizzard in Canaan Valley yesterday! Bomber base and getting more through-out the week! YEW KNOW what to do!
Blizzard subsided early afternoon after putting down another 4" and turned into a glorious day! natural snowpack 14" now with bottom layer bombproof!
snapdragon wrote:
look at the summit cam for the line...no thong zone
Do yourself a favor and pull up the historical weather / temperatures for a city near you, pick 3 while you are at it. Go back 150 years, and look at the average highs/lows and averages in January. Notice how in the 50/60s/70s temps were pretty much about 5-7 degrees on average colder than they are today. Now look back before then, and compare them to today. Notice how they are exactly the same?
The only climate change happening is that we are going back to normal. When these resorts were all built, they were built during a cooling period. So now we are all convinced we are getting warmer when in reality we are just going back to normal
dclivejazz wrote:
Here's a recent article from the NY Times about a study of the effect of climate change on amounts of snow, showing a reduction in some areas over recent years, including the Northeast. Read it and weep:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/10/climate/climate-change-snowpack-decline.html
So in the 50/60/70s the temps were cooler... so from the 80/90/2000s they were progressively warmer? Why have global scientists, who are neither Democrat nor Republican, confirmed that humans are fueling a warming climate? Why are we experiencing, year after year, record heat globally? Why are ski resorts in the Alps closing their doors due to lack of snow/cold? - link provided. newrepublic.com.
Grumpy dad wrote:
Do yourself a favor and pull up the historical weather / temperatures for a city near you, pick 3 while you are at it. Go back 150 years, and look at the average highs/lows and averages in January. Notice how in the 50/60s/70s temps were pretty much about 5-7 degrees on average colder than they are today. Now look back before then, and compare them to today. Notice how they are exactly the same?
The only climate change happening is that we are going back to normal. When these resorts were all built, they were built during a cooling period. So now we are all convinced we are getting warmer when in reality we are just going back to normal
dclivejazz wrote:
Here's a recent article from the NY Times about a study of the effect of climate change on amounts of snow, showing a reduction in some areas over recent years, including the Northeast. Read it and weep:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/10/climate/climate-change-snowpack-decline.html
Good advice.
Back to Mid-Atlantic weather... It looks like the Whitetail/Liberty/Roundtop will be able to get a decent base down this week/weekend to sustain the next round of warm weather! The rumor on the street is that Whitetail plans to be rolling 100% by this weekend!
Crush wrote:
Meh don't go there with climate change; on this board we've all gone around and around. People will believe what they want to believe and then they die. Th next generations will be the stewards as their rank grows. All this will be gone eventually, although I personally believe in doing all I can to save things even though it might be futile. "Do not go gentle into that good night".
Amen! time to stop talk about skiing and go because its been snowing like 2010 in Canaan! Best January in a long time!! Solid base, and you can litterally ski anywhere and and any hill you want! Moments are fleeting.... go skiing now!!!! Tline will probably have the guns on from now till Saturday with the single digits adding even more the natural snowpack! Whitegrass having its best stretch of snow and weather in a long time!
Moments like this are fleeting and ephemeral, go out and get seize it while its here! because it could 40s and raining next week for the ole "january thaw"
Crush wrote:
Meh don't go there with climate change; on this board we've all gone around and around. People will believe what they want to believe and then they die. The next generations will be the stewards as their rank grows. All this will be gone eventually, although I personally believe in doing all I can to save things even though it might be futile. "Do not go gentle into that good night".
💯✅ - thus the beauty
chaga wrote: ... Moments like this are fleeting and ephemeral, go out and get seize it while its here! ,,
Yesterday's snow total in Alexandria, Va. - 3.5 inches, first measurable snow in two years to the day. I need to get my personal weather station online for "official" data.
I spent Sun, Mon Tue at Snowshoe. Then Wed at 7S. I know there is a lot of groaning about what is and is not open.
Both were making tons of snow. IMO, there's enough open to keep you busy. Not saying it's perfect but our gang had a good time.
AND ....... both places are about to get dumped on this Friday.
Keith_Moon wrote:
Can anyone remember when was the last time this region (OK maybe PA excepted) had a better January than this?
W PA is rocking. I don't remember a January like this in years. It's great! Another 5-12in are predicted for the ridges tonight. It's going to be another awesome weekend at Laurel Mountain.
Keith_Moon wrote:
Can anyone remember when was the last time this region (OK maybe PA excepted) had a better January than this?
2010, and 2011 for sure. Weve had bigger single storm total here and there, but not the consistency and rock soild base BASE under the powder. Usually it would be kinda dry until mid january, then a big storm. this year, snow on the ground since newyears now!! with extra 3-5" storms a bunch adding up. Calling for a bunch tonight - saturday to top it off even more! :O Then 40s and rain in the forecast.
2022 had a week stretch that was skiable in the woods and everywhere but then sucked after it thawed. Basing it all on memory, verification can be found on the canaan snowfall data site.
2022 January Powder days video
Keith_Moon wrote:
Can anyone remember when was the last time this region (OK maybe PA excepted) had a better January than this?
Is Blue Knob within this Western PA area that you are referring to that is getting all of this new forecasted snow tomorrow?
Snow chasing with the kids since their school will be closed tomorrow. Was thinking of Montage (we are on the Indy Pass) but it doesn't look like that they are getting much from this storm.
TIA
oddballstocks wrote:
W PA is rocking. I don't remember a January like this in years. It's great! Another 5-12in are predicted for the ridges tonight. It's going to be another awesome weekend at Laurel Mountain.
Keith_Moon wrote:
Can anyone remember when was the last time this region (OK maybe PA excepted) had a better January than this?
With 9" to 18" predicted we will roll past last seasons total snowfall with ease here at Snowshoe. Should be very close to 60+ trails open over the weekend.
Dafixison wrote:
Is Blue Knob within this Western PA area that you are referring to that is getting all of this new forecasted snow tomorrow?
Snow chasing with the kids since their school will be closed tomorrow. Was thinking of Montage (we are on the Indy Pass) but it doesn't look like that they are getting much from this storm.
TIA
As I mentioned in the Blue Knob thread, if I could go anywhere in the region tomorrow or Saturday, it'd be Blue Knob. This is probably their peak weekend of 2024. It has the only bowl that I know of within a day trip of DC.
How good are your kids at skiing? I heard it called "The Ungroomed Capital of Pennsylvania" this week.
Wow...that is great to hear...will check out the other thread for sure.
My kids are 13 and 15, and they are rapidly getting to be better skiers than their old Dad....love steeps, bumps, and glades. Sounds like we might want to pack some overnight essentials just in case they want to ski it again the next day.
No, Blue Knob is considered Central PA. Johnstown is about as far east as you can go in the state and still be considered "western".
Dafixison wrote:
Is Blue Knob within this Western PA area that you are referring to that is getting all of this new forecasted snow tomorrow?
Snow chasing with the kids since their school will be closed tomorrow. Was thinking of Montage (we are on the Indy Pass) but it doesn't look like that they are getting much from this storm.
TIA
oddballstocks wrote:
W PA is rocking. I don't remember a January like this in years. It's great! Another 5-12in are predicted for the ridges tonight. It's going to be another awesome weekend at Laurel Mountain.
Keith_Moon wrote:
Can anyone remember when was the last time this region (OK maybe PA excepted) had a better January than this?
Always good to get more than they forecast! Good for you all.
I wish it ended up like that for us. I guess it will be easier for me to clear our pond ice off for hockey.
We are at the point of lake effect only, and have NEVER to my experience gotten more than a couple of inches from lake effect post a front moving through. So while they were originally saying 6-9, with more in the higher elevations (where Im at, near 7Springs) it will likely be more like 4 in reality. To me that's a big bust but to others, any new snow is great.
newbie2022 wrote:
Speak for yourself. In Arlington it's still coming down with 3 inches of new accumulation since it started overnight. Yesterday morning I was in a 1-2" forecast band, so it's been a good one for us here. Looking forward to some great turns out at WT or Liberty this weekend!
Niiiice! Hey! Skiing on a work day ?!?! Ohhhh you did the retirement thing? Awesome if you swung that!
Scott wrote:
I'm one mountain over from Whitetail, and just spent the past couple hours snowblowing at least 4 inches of snow off my driveway. And it's still coming down (although somewhat lightly now).
Blue Knob did not disappoint today. Steady snow fall from rope drop to about 4:30pm...all the while, the snow guns were blasting on some of the trails...Fluffy buttery soft powder can be found everywhere. Ungroomed terrains were both challenging and fun...knee deep powder was found in some parts of the untracked glades.
Hope Everyone can get out this weekend to enjoy the fresh snow.
100% got over a foot of snow yesterday on top of almost a foot of powder on top of base! Almost too deep for the pitches here!
Brook wrote:
What are the odds CVR will open up the natural areas (meadows 2 , 3, dark side, prosperity , glades etc this weekend ? Looks like they were grooming out meadows 1 on the webcam last night so hopefully that pops.
Great pic .. Made it up and it was all open indeed and DEEP breaking trail on the newly opened runs. So much fun !! more today
chaga wrote:
100% got over a foot of snow yesterday on top of almost a foot of powder on top of base! Almost too deep for the pitches here!
Brook wrote:
What are the odds CVR will open up the natural areas (meadows 2 , 3, dark side, prosperity , glades etc this weekend ? Looks like they were grooming out meadows 1 on the webcam last night so hopefully that pops.
Wow, do I feel like I missed out seeing people ski in knee deep powder.
I was initially bummed at what seemed like a bust of a storm, then suddenly Friday night we got hammered in spots. Then it snowed on us again Saturday.
I was forced by family to endure 7Springs, (I live 5 minutes from there so). I swear that resort gets packed out somehow before 7am with no skiers on it.
For some reason I can't quite figure out, Vail has been cutting corners and making it less enticing to want to go there, yet the entire resort and all Airbnbs were booked in the area.
At a minimum it was nice to ski on packed powder. Occasionally on the busiest of trails you'd run into some really packed down stuff that was very slippery, but overall you could still hold an edge.
This upcoming weather has me seriously bummed though. high 50's, then we return to slightly above avg temps then another week in the high 50's. That's terrible, and I really hope they are wrong. Somehow they are never wrong about bad news though.
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